645
FXUS63 KMPX 200000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix of snow, freezing rain, & sleet will move
  from northwest to southeast tonight. Slick travel conditions
  are possible.

- Light wintry precipitation possible Sunday night.

- Warmer next week, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
  Lows in the 20s. Mainly dry for those with holiday travel
  plans.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The powerhouse weather system that moveD through the northern
CONUS yesterday has quickly translated east of the Great Lakes.
A short-lived blast of sub-zero temperatures followed the
departing system, though temperatures have rebounded above zero
early this afternoon. Focus shifts to a vort max racing across
the westerly upper-level flow over southern Canada. A mature
mid-level cyclone has developed in response and will send a
~980s mb surface low from Saskatchewan through southern Manitoba
into Ontario over the next 24-hours. Our portion of the Upper
Midwest will be positioned in the warm sector to the south of
the surface low. As such, a notable mid-level thermal ridge will
advect east across the region through the remainder of the day
and will play a role in our p-type forecast tonight. We can
already see this playing out, as surface winds are increasing
out of the southeast across western MN. This trend will continue
eastward and should yield non-diurnal highs before midnight in
the low to mid 20s south of I-94 and in the upper teens to the
north of I-94.

Regional radar captures the initial batch of warm advective
precipitation moving east into northwest and west central MN. KMPX
radar imagery displays radar echoes moving across the area,
though surface observations reveal that no precipitation is
reaching the surface owing to a large dry wedge sampled on the
12z MPX RAOB. It`s possible that we may see some very light
wintry precipitation later this afternoon into the early evening
north of a line from STC to GDB. The better chance for mixed
precipitation will arrive later tonight as the system`s trailing
cold front moves from northwest to southeast across the region.
Latest forecast soundings continue to display a saturated
profile above 7-8k feet and a warm nose (above freezing) around
5k feet, along with sufficient omega forcing through the column.
As a result, we are looking at a scenario where many locations
will likely observe a short period of light freezing rain prior
to a transition to sleet/snow as mid-level temperatures cool
with the frontal passage. Snow amounts will be minor, say a half
inch to an inch north of I-94, however the combination of snow
and mixed wintry precipitation may create slick travel areawide
overnight. The narrow band of mixed precipitation is forecast to
exit the southeastern portions of the forecast area by daybreak
Saturday. Cold air will advect in from the northwest through
Saturday and will send morning lows back below zero across
central MN and western WI by Sunday morning.

Quiet and cold to open Sunday, though changes will be underway
aloft. A large scale upper ridge will build east over the northern
CONUS, with mid-level southwesterly flow increasing in response. The
next period to watch for light precipitation will be Sunday evening
into early Monday, as a baroclinic zone lifts north into the region.
As previously discussed, there is some variance in the guidance with
how widespread the precipitation footprint will be, though would
tend to favor wetter solutions that match the conceptual model for an
upglide driven band of precipitation. Once again, thermal profiles
will be a must watch and it`s likely there would be some mixed
precipitation on the table. New NBM PoPs are between 20-30 percent
and would look at this as a possible target for increasing PoPs
through the weekend. Warmer air follows to open the work week, with
the latest NBM advertising highs above freezing areawide ranging
from the mid 30s to near 40 degrees. Temperatures will take a step
back on Tuesday following the passage of a dry cold front. The rest
of next week, including Christmas Day, continues to look fairly mild
as ensembles advertise a +15C to +20C 850mb temperature anomaly
building out of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Our
afternoon forecast package displays Thursday (Christmas Day) as the
warmest in the extended period, with highs climbing to around 40 in
the Twin Cities Metro and across central MN. Temperatures may reach
the upper 40s across southwestern MN. The state of the remnant
snowpack (and how it may modify the anomalous air mass) will be the
key in diagnosing just how warm it gets next week. Nonetheless, it
will be mild and mostly dry, with any chance of precipitation too
low to include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

The first of two batches of forcing tonight is moving across
western WI at the start of this period. It`s dry air 1 and
precipitation zero with this first wave and that dry air looks
like it will mostly win out on the second potential round of
precip with the cold front. We have really backed off on precip
mention in the TAFs with this second round given trends we`ve
seen with the HRRR/RAP/GFS toward a drier solution. Also removed
FZ precip mention from all TAFs. The warm nose is still there,
but as precipitation falls into that dry warm nose, the
precipitation will evaporate, with that evaporation cooling the
warm nose down below freezing. It is expected that if we can
get any precip through the dry, it will be snow as the freezing
rain will have been lost to evaporation. Behind the cold front,
boosted northwest wind gusts into the 30s. Also, there will be
potential for some thin MVFR stratocu during the day on
Saturday, with some occasional MVFR cigs possible.

KMSP...A very narrow window for precip exists between roughly 8z
and 11z Saturday morning. If we manage to get precip through the
dry air, it is expected to be snow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW becoming SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chance MVFR/SN early. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
TUE...MVFR ceilings possible. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...MPG