009 FXUS63 KMPX 050345 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in effect for central MN and west central WI through this evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Saturday. - Relief from the heat and occasional chances for thunderstorms next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Current observations highlight a hot & humid Independence day across the Upper Midwest. Temperatures range from the upper 80s across southern Minnesota to mid 90s in north-central Minnesota all while our dew points are in the upper 60s & lower 70s. Heat indices are in the lower 90s to lower 100s across the area within the Heat Advisory. The heat advisory goes until 8 pm when temperatures begin to cool off but we will have to wait until the real relief arrives overnight into Saturday. The regional radar mosaic reveals a supercell along the international border. This cell likely developed along the warm front that is along the border. Additional convection is likely to develop across northern MN this afternoon and evening given 2500-3000 J/Kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and adequate lapse rates to support strong to severe storms. These storms will not impact our forecast area. Our attention will turn west this evening as additional development is forecast across the eastern Dakotas along the cold front. These storms will merge into an MCS that`ll track out of the Dakotas and into W MN this evening. It`ll slowly track along the cold front overnight with PoPs increasing after midnight in C MN & E MN and after sunrise in W WI. Severe chances will be low, but not zero, the primary concern being gusty winds. Storm/showers will slow as they approach the Twin Cities Saturday morning. Forecast soundings suggest the precipitation along the boundary will bring a heavy rain threat with 1.7+" PW values. A low pressure will move along the boundary on Saturday and lead to additional development of storms & showers Saturday afternoon across south/east MN & western WI. Latest hires guidance highlights the potential of 1-2"+ across portions of S MN. The front will kick through W WI by Saturday night and usher in cooler, drier air with WNW flow aloft. Severe chances remain low with a Marginal Risk on Saturday. The "best" forecast soundings lean into lower-end threat across far S MN and WC WI. The remainder of the forecast period looks seasonable with highs in the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and several weak disturbances that`ll support localized convection. There isn`t enough support to highlight any one of these waves, but don`t be surprised by pop-up storms mid to late week. Guidance highlights the potential for a larger disturbance that could impact the area next weekend. Otherwise - it`s a textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Current TAFs look on track with showers and storms moving across MN tonight. Confidence is increasing in a period of MVFR cigs (012 to 022) late tonight through much of the morning given the high levels of tropical moisture we have (precipitable water values over 2"). Confidence is high we`ll see another round of shra/tsra develop Saturday afternoon, though confidence remains low on exactly where in eastern MN/western WI those storms will fire. For them to impact MSP & RNH, storms will need to be initiating around 18z, after that, the front will be gone. KMSP...Forecast still looks on track. The HRRR continues to be the most aggressive CAM out there with bringing a line of TSRA through the Twin Cities metro early Saturday afternoon, so kept the afternoon TS threat in a prob30. Some cigs getting below 018 are still possible Saturday morning as well. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Chc aftn & evening -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind lgt & vrb. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...MPG