009
FXUS63 KMPX 050345
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in effect for central MN
  and west central WI through this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Saturday.

- Relief from the heat and occasional chances for thunderstorms
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Current observations highlight a hot & humid Independence day across
the Upper Midwest. Temperatures range from the upper 80s across
southern Minnesota to mid 90s in north-central Minnesota all while
our dew points are in the upper 60s & lower 70s. Heat indices are in
the lower 90s to lower 100s across the area within the Heat
Advisory. The heat advisory goes until 8 pm when temperatures begin
to cool off but we will have to wait until the real relief arrives
overnight into Saturday. The regional radar mosaic reveals a
supercell along the international border. This cell likely developed
along the warm front that is along the border. Additional convection
is likely to develop across northern MN this afternoon and evening
given 2500-3000 J/Kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and adequate
lapse rates to support strong to severe storms. These storms will
not impact our forecast area.

Our attention will turn west this evening as additional development
is forecast across the eastern Dakotas along the cold front. These
storms will merge into an MCS that`ll track out of the Dakotas and
into W MN this evening. It`ll slowly track along the cold front
overnight with PoPs increasing after midnight in C MN & E MN and
after sunrise in W WI. Severe chances will be low, but not zero, the
primary concern being gusty winds. Storm/showers will slow as they
approach the Twin Cities Saturday morning. Forecast soundings
suggest the precipitation along the boundary will bring a heavy rain
threat with 1.7+" PW values. A low pressure will move along the
boundary on Saturday and lead to additional development of storms &
showers Saturday afternoon across south/east MN & western WI. Latest
hires guidance highlights the potential of 1-2"+ across portions of
S MN. The front will kick through W WI by Saturday night and usher
in cooler, drier air with WNW flow aloft. Severe chances remain low
with a Marginal Risk on Saturday. The "best" forecast soundings lean
into lower-end threat across far S MN and WC WI.

The remainder of the forecast period looks seasonable with highs in
the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and several weak
disturbances that`ll support localized convection. There isn`t
enough support to highlight any one of these waves, but don`t be
surprised by pop-up storms mid to late week. Guidance highlights the
potential for a larger disturbance that could impact the area next
weekend. Otherwise - it`s a textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Current TAFs look on track with showers and storms moving across
MN tonight. Confidence is increasing in a period of MVFR cigs
(012 to 022) late tonight through much of the morning given the
high levels of tropical moisture we have (precipitable water
values over 2"). Confidence is high we`ll see another round of
shra/tsra develop Saturday afternoon, though confidence remains
low on exactly where in eastern MN/western WI those storms will
fire. For them to impact MSP & RNH, storms will need to be
initiating around 18z, after that, the front will be gone.

KMSP...Forecast still looks on track. The HRRR continues to be
the most aggressive CAM out there with bringing a line of TSRA
through the Twin Cities metro early Saturday afternoon, so kept
the afternoon TS threat in a prob30. Some cigs getting below 018
are still possible Saturday morning as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn & evening -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind lgt & vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG