173 FXUS63 KMPX 122014 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of rain through Friday afternoon with an inch or two most likely. - Heaviest rain currently expected over central MN, where 3 to 4 inches could fall. - Active pattern will continue, with multiple chances for rain. Past today and tomorrow the next round of substantial rainfall looks likely Tue/Wed next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Today and tomorrow... The frontal boundary has been slow to advance farther north today. This will keep the chance for strong to severe storms in southern Minnesota, closer to this boundary. CAMs have been consistently showing ample instability building and satisfactory shear such that if CI occurs a storm could grow in the strength quickly. With low LCLs it also won`t take much for tornadoes to form. So, all severe threats could be on the table if we can get deep convection to occur. Overall though it has been widespread rain across central Minnesota, which will be the prevailing pattern for today and into tomorrow. The broader synoptic scale forcing will continue along central Minnesota with more mesoscale forced features to the south. So rain amounts in southern Minnesota will be very convectively driven with more of a rain shower setup across central Minnesota. The low level jet will increase tonight promoting additional moisture transport to feed into the heavy rain setup across central Minnesota. Looking into CAM and CAM ensemble solutions this seems like a close call for the Twin Cities metro. Depending on the model solution this will just miss the metro to the north or cover parts of the metro area. This is important to note as the amount of rain and the fact that current soil moisture will allow for a lot of absorption means that any flash flooding threat will be more urban in nature. So if the Twin Cities gets missed the overall threat will be greatly decreased. This will keep other urban areas like St Cloud within the area to be watched. The best chance for rainfall will be overnight with rain continuing into Friday. Rain chances will shift from west to east across Minnesota and into Wisconsin on Friday related to the movement of upper level forcing. Some remaining showers could persist into Friday night. This weekend... Overall active period continues into the weekend with Saturday looking to be a quieter day as we are mostly between rounds of rain chances. Overall the same boundary driving the rain chances today and tomorrow remains fairly stationary and continues to lift this weekend. It is not until next week when the pattern shifts from this same boundary. Next week... There will be more warm and moist air moving in next week, which set us up for more rain chances. AI/ML also suggests that there could be chances for some severe within this pattern as well. Which on a conceptual model level makes sense as when we get warm moist air moving in, that will further destabilize the atmosphere. An unstable atmosphere increases not just rain, but storm chances. Zooming out to a model ensemble picture for next week we still lots of member to member variability. However there is overall pattern agreement with a wet week ahead. It is when this rain falls, rather than if rain falls where the models vary. So keep an eye out for further updates on both the heavy rain and severe weather risks for next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Intermittent showers are expected with bursts of heavier rain with some thunderstorms possible for our western sites in the afternoon and overnight hours. MVFR will prevail with some dips to IFR during periods of heavy rain. Eastern sites will remain VFR longer due to the dry easterly low level flow. High end MVFR/low VFR conditions may return towards the end of the period for some, but overall, expecting MVFR to win out. Winds will be out of the east around 10-15kts with a few gusts in the 20-25kt range. Overall - this TAF period is rather low confidence given the uncertainty on where the frontal boundary sets up across southern/central MN & W WI. KMSP...Thunderstorm chances appear to stay south of MSP terminal. VFR cigs through the evening before MVFR arrives after sunset through tomorrow morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR -SHRA chc IFR early, bcmg VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts. SUN...VFR, chc MVFR late w/TSRA. Wind SE at 10 kts. MON...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NDC AVIATION...BPH