372 FXUS63 KMPX 021739 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Degraded air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke through tomorrow. - Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon. - A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Monday evening into Tuesday. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) issued across far western Minnesota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 In the very near term, all remains quiet. Near-surface smoke has pestered locations across western Minnesota and is expected to mix out around sunrise this morning. Additional wildfire smoke is possible today hence an air quality alert remains in effect until this evening across Minnesota. For today`s forecast, surface high pressure associated with an h500 ridge moves eastward today. Low pressure in the High Plains is forecast to move east and reach MN/WI this afternoon. As this system approaches, we will be located within the warm sector. Therefore followed suit of the previous shift with a slight bump up in temperatures where sites have an opportunity to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Winds will be southwesterly with gusts a strong as 25-30 mph thanks to a deep mixed layer shown in latest RAP forecast soundings, especially across western Minnesota. This scenario will make for a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Once the aforementioned low pressure system arrives, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop as early 2 PM across western Minnesota and progress eastward. A slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms is possible with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Farther east, a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is in place. The best environment for today`s development will be pinned along the eastern border of the Dakotas and Minnesota. The instability gradient looks to be quite steep (~2500 J/kg), thus the chances of severe storms in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin is nearly null. For QPF, HREF PMM indicates that a few sites have a favorable chance of seeing at least a half inch or more of rainfall over the next two days, although a line of less return bisects the region with best QPF, which includes the TC Metro. Areas within the bisecting region may observe a tenth of an inch up to a half inch of rainfall. As the evening progresses storm clusters are expected to congeal into a messy line general rain/thunder. Once this front clears our region late tonight, lingering showers and storms are possible through Tuesday, especially east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler over the next several days ranging comfortably in the 70s. Additional chances for precip are also possible this week but will need to have guidance increase confidence on timing details. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Winds start S/SW but will shift to the NW behind the cold front.Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a cold front across western MN this afternoon and trek east this evening. MVFR cigs are possible behind the front tonight. I`ve kept PROB30s at locations with lower confidence of -TSRA. Showers will continue into Tuesday with the exception of AXN/STC where they`ll dry out tonight. Added mention of FU for surface wildfire smoke tonight into Tuesday for most sites. Confidence is high that we`ll see surface smoke arrive behind the front/showers. There is some uncertainty on how low vsbys will get. Upstream sites across NW MN suggest MVFR is likely, IFR is possible. For now I`ve kept them on the higher end until we get a better handle on how widespread the vsby impacts will be. Showers taper off by end of TAF period for MN sites. KMSP... Showers are likely after 01Z this evening, with a low risk of some TS from 01-03Z. I have maintained a prob30 for -TSRA for that period. I`ve added Smoke/FU Tuesday afternoon but we may need to push the timing earlier due to uncertainties with -SHRA timing Tuesday morning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...BPH