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FXUS63 KARX 222313
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
515 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential (15-50%) for drizzle this afternoon and early
  evening east of the Mississippi River. A few locations
  Clark/Taylor/Jackson Counties may see freezing drizzle, but
  the overall chance for precip there is on the low end
  (15-30%).

- Next decent precipitation potential arrives Christmas night
  into Friday, which may (5-30%) bring some freezing
  rain/drizzle along and north of I-94. Even if this occurs,
  impacts are favored to be minor.

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 147 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Drizzle, freezing drizzle potential this afternoon and evening

This afternoon into this evening, low level warm advection continues
with the midwest between a surface high centered in NC and a lee
cyclone in E MT. RAP/HRRR runs this morning have consistently
suggested saturation - as evident by ongoing stratus - will continue
with cloud depths increasing east of the Mississippi. Given modest
lift occurring due to aforementioned WAA, have added mentions of
drizzle to the forecast, mainly east of the Mississippi. Precip should
remain liquid in southwest Wisconsin as surface temperatures and wet
bulb temperatures trend above freezing this afternoon. In
Clark/Taylor/Jackson Counties, surface wet bulb temperatures
are low enough to support brief freezing drizzle, although more
shallow cloud depths in that area suggest it will be more
difficult to get any hydrometeors to fall at all.

Precipitation potential Christmas night

For Christmas Day, upper wave looks to ride an upper ridge that will
build over the south central CONUS, ejecting over the northern High
Plains at some time during the day, moving over Lake Superior late
Christmas night into Friday morning. While most favorable lift
associated with this wave looks to be located just to our north, our
CWA may yet be located under the left exit region of an upper jet,
bringing additional lift for precip along with a short period of
850mb WAA. Should current timing seen in 22.12z operational guidance
hold with the upper wave arriving during the nighttime hours,
potential (5-30%) for freezing rain and/or drizzle would exist along
and north of I-94 where surface temperatures may fall below freezing
while 850mb temperatures warm above 0C due to aforementioned WAA.
Will need to keep an eye on this period for now but, even should
freezing rain occur, overall moisture appears too low for widespread
problems aside from slick untreated roads (22.13z NBM 95th
percentile values are 0.1" of ice accumulation or less).

Above normal temperatures through Saturday

Broad ridging develops over the central CONUS through Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to respond with above normal highs favored
through Saturday. Indeed, each afternoon has a very good (55-95%)
chance to rise above freezing. Signal across guidance is robust with
22.13z NBM interquartile ranges for highs of 2-4 degrees each day
through Saturday. Depending on how quickly snowmelt occurs, hopes of
a white Christmas may be dashed as a muddy Christmas develops
instead.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

CIGS: a few hours of MVFR cigs (2.5kft) continues to trend for KLSE
into early evening - per satellite/sfc obs and short term modeled
soundings. These should clear east by mid evening leaving a thin bkn
layer of high level clouds into overnight hours. A few high level
VFR clouds for Tue.

WX/vsby: some potential for -DL with the lower mvfr cigs at KLSE
early this evening (20-30%). Higher chances favored eastward, per
latest RAP/HRRR. Would be minor vsby restrictions if realized. Above
freezing temps belay a icing possiblity.

WINDS: southeast becoming light southerly/vrb overnight, shifting
northwest by 12z Tue and then mostly around 10 kts for the
daytime hours.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION.....Rieck