463
FXUS63 KMPX 110854
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming through the weekend with highs in the 60s and 70s
  Saturday and Sunday.

- Scattered rain chances (40%) early Sunday across most of
  southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Chances increase in
  the afternoon (60%) for scattered rain and thunderstorms in
  western Wisconsin.

- Temperatures in the 40s and 50s on Monday and Tuesday will
  give way to 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

With minimal winds and mostly clear skies in west central
Minnesota, radiation fog has formed. Surface observations of
quarter mile or less visibility plague areas around and west of
St. Cloud. We have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the
aforementioned areas in western and central Minnesota. West
central Wisconsin`s visibilities are also beginning to
deteriorate, leading to the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory out
there as well. Patchy areas of fog are developing elsewhere,
but we do not anticipate the coverage to be as expansive. A
special weather statement has been issued to reflect the patchy
fog in areas outside of the Dense Fog Advisory. Fog should mix
out relatively quickly this morning, as such, the advisory runs
through 9AM.

As an upper-level ridge approaches the Upper Midwest in wake of
the departing trough, subsidence will lead to fair weather and
dry air for the next few days. This ridging will allow southerly
winds to advect ample warm air into the Minnesota and Wisconsin
region. Today will be warm in the upper 50s to potentially low
60s, but Saturday and Sunday will be warmer yet as winds ramp up
and really push the warmer air our way. Something to keep an eye
on with regards to today`s temperatures is sky cover,
particularly in western Wisconsin. If clouds struggle to break
up, high temperatures could take a noticeable hit and areas of
western Wisconsin may not leave the upper 40s. We opted to go
the optimistic route with our forecast and went ahead with NBM
highs in the lower to mid 50s.

Saturday will bring beautiful spring weather to the region,
with the exception of breezy winds gusting 20 to 30MPH
(strongest in southern MN). Despite these winds, the apparent
temperature will be well into the 60s for most, 70s for some in
western/southern Minnesota. Sunday will be similar on the
temperature front, but a surface low brings the return of rain
chances. PoPs of 30% are introduced overnight Saturday into
Sunday, increasing to 50-60% by the afternoon in western
Wisconsin as the warm front moves east. Ensemble guidance isn`t
too excited in terms of significant QPF for anyone, with only a
few members exceeding a tenth at MSP. Most can expect a trace
(with the exception of far western MN where precip could miss
entirely), but some in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
could see up to a tenth of an inch. Should any thunderstorms
develop in the few hundred joules of CAPE present, those areas
could see slightly highly QPF. This is most likely where lapse
rates are steeper in western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota.
The takeaway from the Sunday system is that it will not be a
washout, but light rain is possible, with better chances in the
afternoon. Scattered precipitation on the back end of the
departing low could stick around through Monday, especially in
areas north of I-94.

Temperatures will be near normal Monday and Tuesday as
a weak airmass sits overhead, but will trend warmer again by
midweek. As we trend warmer, the chance for a similar set up
from the Sunday system could take place as a warm front brings
forcing to see showers.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Fog and low stratus will impact all terminals through Friday
morning. While mainly MVFR/high end IFR cigs/vis are
anticipated, a few hours of low end IFR/LIFR is possible between
09-13z. KSTC has already managed to drop down into this
category. MVFR/VFR conditions should return by mid/late morning
with winds remaining light and variable before VFR cigs settle
in by the early afternoon.

KMSP...As mentioned above, fog/low stratus is expected through
at least mid Friday morning. Did not go as low with visibilities
as a handful of guidance went, but a TEMPO group for occasional
LIFR cigs/vis may be warranted in future amendments. Winds will
be light and generally southerly.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-20G25kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Wind S 10-15kts becoming W.
MON...Chc MVFR cigs. Slight chc -RA. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...Dye