803
FXUS63 KMPX 021132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Degraded air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke through
  tomorrow.

- Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday
  afternoon.

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Monday evening
  into Tuesday. Slight Risk (Level 2/5) issued across far
  western Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

In the very near term, all remains quiet. Near-surface smoke
has pestered locations across western Minnesota and is expected
to mix out around sunrise this morning. Additional wildfire
smoke is possible today hence an air quality alert remains in
effect until this evening across Minnesota. For today`s
forecast, surface high pressure associated with an h500 ridge
moves eastward today. Low pressure in the High Plains is
forecast to move east and reach MN/WI this afternoon. As this
system approaches, we will be located within the warm sector.
Therefore followed suit of the previous shift with a slight bump
up in temperatures where sites have an opportunity to reach the
upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Winds will be
southwesterly with gusts a strong as 25-30 mph thanks to a deep
mixed layer shown in latest RAP forecast soundings, especially
across western Minnesota. This scenario will make for a few
hours of elevated fire weather conditions.

Once the aforementioned low pressure system arrives, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop as early 2 PM across
western Minnesota and progress eastward. A slight risk (level 2
of 5) of severe storms is possible with large hail and damaging
winds being the primary hazards. Farther east, a marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) is in place. The best environment for today`s
development will be pinned along the eastern border of the
Dakotas and Minnesota. The instability gradient looks to be
quite steep (~2500 J/kg), thus the chances of severe storms in
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin is nearly null. For QPF,
HREF PMM indicates that a few sites have a favorable chance of
seeing at least a half inch or more of rainfall over the next
two days, although a line of less return bisects the region with
best QPF, which includes the TC Metro. Areas within the
bisecting region may observe a tenth of an inch up to a half
inch of rainfall. As the evening progresses storm clusters are
expected to congeal into a messy line general rain/thunder.

Once this front clears our region late tonight, lingering
showers and storms are possible through Tuesday, especially
east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will be noticeably
cooler over the next several days ranging comfortably in the
70s. Additional chances for precip are also possible this week
but will need to have guidance increase confidence on timing
details.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025

MVFR visibilities due to smoke across western MN will continue
at times early this morning, but increasing southerly flow will
push it north today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop
along a cold front across western MN this afternoon and build
east this evening. MVFR cigs are possible behind the front
tonight.

KMSP...Southerly winds will increase this morning with gusts
around 25 kts for most of the day. Showers likely after 01Z this
evening, with a low risk of some TS from 01-03Z. Included a
prob30 for that period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/-SHRA likely early. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Borghoff