897 FXUS63 KFGF 021445 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 945 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy smoke impacts remain possible through this afternoon, with some clearing expected tonight. - Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon, especially in west central Minnesota. - There remains a 30 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain in portions of west central Minnesota today through Tuesday morning. && .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The frontal position stretches from Kelliher through just east of Fargo into Rutland as of 14z. Anywhere ahead of this front may experience severe weather this afternoon as the front progresses southeastward. Looking at surface analysis, moisture transport ahead of the front is being heavily diverted northeastward away from our CWA, so confidence in more organized severe convection is waning at this hour. Ongoing lightning storms in northern South Dakota are expected to propagate into southeast North Dakota over the next 2 hours. Limited instability should limit the threat to very small hail and lightning. Further northwest, only isolated lightning remains possible in the Devils Lake Basin over the next 2 hours as instability drastically diminishes the further north and west you go. UPDATE Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The forecast remains on track this morning. Upstream obs show showers and thunderstorms just west of Benson County. Near surface smoke continues to work southward into the area from the Red River Valley eastward, which could become more dense along the cold front. Visibility is ranging anywhere from 2 to 4 miles at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...Synopsis... Cooler temperatures move back into the area later today into Tuesday as a cold front traverses the region. Near surface smoke is expected to remain in the area, especially along and slightly behind the front. Along this front will be showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become severe this afternoon, especially for portions of far southeastern North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Heading into Tuesday, near average temperatures return, with highs in the 70s across much of the area. These temperatures are expected to continue through the end of the week as nearly zonal flow prevails Wednesday through Friday. Another shortwave traverses the flow, bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms nearly each afternoon from mid week onward. ...Isolated Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon/Evening... Environmental conditions will be somewhat favorable during the early to mid afternoon to support isolated severe storms along and ahead of the cold front. Low to mid level lapse rates and strong forcing are likely to provide numerous thunderstorms, with the most likely mode expected to be linear. MUCAPE is slightly lower in recent model soundings, with low to mid level shear still looking favorable for organized storms. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts along and ahead of the main line of storms, although large hail up to 1 inch remains possible, especially during the early afternoon. The main area of concern will be west central Minnesota and far southeastern North Dakota as this is where the front will interact with the best daytime heating and instability. There is a low chance scenario for an isolated supercell or two; however, with minimal capping and the likelihood of numerous storms nearby, cell interactions favor more clusters and line segments. ...Heavy Rainfall Potential Through Tues Morning... As the cold front progresses southeastward this afternoon and evening, there is a chance that the slow forward movement could allow longer residence time of heavier rainfall. At this time, the probability for 1 or more inches of rain is still about 30 percent, but considering the nature of convection, any scenario that slows the progression of the front will locally increase those chances. For example,the 90th percentile amounts (10% chance of occurrence) in west central Minnesota is upwards of 1.5 inches. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 640 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 MVFR to VFR conditions prevail this morning, with showers and thunderstorms beginning to work into the area from northwest to southeast. Near surface smoke continues to bring visibility into the 2-4SM range. There should be slow improvement this afternoon after the cold front clears the area. Added a mention of VCTS to most locations through the midday through early afternoon hours along the cold front. Isolated severe storms are possible, primarily south and east of KFAR and KBJI. Winds will increase out of the north following the cold front passage, with gusts ranging from 20 to 30 knots. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch/Perroux DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch