479
FXUS63 KFGF 281722
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures persist this week, with heat
  impacts possible on Wednesday.

- Isolated severe storms possible Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Fog burned off this morning, so let the advisory expire on time
at 10 AM. With continued light and variable winds into tonight,
can`t rule out additional fog formation although not much of a
model signal for anything yet and what develops will be fairly
shallow and localized. For now just kept patchy smoke mention
going and will add fog later if needed.


UPDATE
Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Ground fog which initially formed in the Devils Lake basin has
expanded and fog layer lifted so that we are seeing more
widespread dense fog over the northern Red River valley and thru
the Devils Lake, Cando areas to New Rockford. Patchy fog may
develop in other locations into Minnesota as well as we approach
sunset.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging continues over the Rockies and Plains, with some
weak embedded shortwaves coming over top of the ridge today and
tomorrow. The higher heights will push further north on
Wednesday, ahead of a stronger shortwave coming over top of the
ridge on Thursday. After a brief period of northwesterly flow,
upper ridging builds back into the region for the weekend. Many
of the ensemble members have a stronger trough starting to track
along the international border on Monday, bringing us
southwesterly flow aloft. However, a cluster of around 35
percent of the long range ensemble members keep the 588dm meter
nosing up into ND and the troughing much less impressive. At
this point, a more active pattern and cooler temperatures look
like they will at least hold off until next week.

...Heat wave continuing and rain chances mid-week...

One of the weak embedded shortwaves coming over the top of the
ridge has started to produce some showers and thunderstorms in
or near north central ND. SPC meso page has decent 1000 to 1500
J/kg of ML CAPE and shear around 40 kts, but with very weak
forcing, and extremely warm mid-level temps, the cells that are
developing are struggling. CAMs have that trend continuing with
the next weak shortwave arriving later this evening, and this
seems reasonable. Our northwestern counties could see a few
sprinkles this afternoon and evening, but substantial
precipitation will hold off until Wednesday/Thursday as NBM
probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch of rain finally
rise above 50 percent. ECMWF EFI continues to show a signal for
heat continuing through the weekend, and NBM probabilities for
temperatures over 95 degrees are over 70 percent for Wednesday.
Likely will need heat headlines of some sort again Wednesday so
will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions as a few sites still showing 6 miles visibility
with some smoke, but only localized reports at this point. Could
see some lowered vis due to smoke/fog later tonight and into
tomorrow morning, although exactly when and where is uncertain.
For now have KGFK going down to MVFR as they have the strongest
signal in the model guidance, but other sites may also be
impacted. All sites should be VFR by the end of the period, as
light and variable winds start picking up out of the south to
southwest, remaining below 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR