686 FXUS63 KMPX 032003 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 303 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain will exit the region early this evening, lingering in Wisconsin through 7PM. - Degraded air quality due to wildfire smoke persists through Wednesday morning for most of Minnesota and all of Wisconsin. - An unsettled weather pattern returns late week, but heavy precipitation is not currently anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected over the next 24 hours. The widespread showers associated with a shortwave trough that brought a good soaking to southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin are progressing east and things will dry out overnight. As of 1PM, WFO MPX observed just under an inch over the last 24 hours. The MSP Airport was slightly less than this, with around three quarters of an inch as of 1PM. Surface smoke and associated air quality concerns remain through early Wednesday, with Unhealthy to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups forecast across the region (per the MN Pollution Control Agency). These categories are an improvement from this morning`s Very Unhealthy category, where AQI values in the PM2.5 category were in excess of 200. Wednesday should turn out to be quite a nice day with limited sky cover and temps in the upper 70s as high pressure takes over. Thursday will be similar, but with increasing clouds and a chance for rain in the evening ahead of another shortwave on Friday. Deterministic and ensemble models have shown a notable uptick in precipitation chances Friday afternoon. The mean surface to 400mb wind kicks out of the southwest just long enough to transport PWAT values of ~1" northward. This is likely in response to a more pronounced shortwave jogging down from Canada. A lobe of vorticity along the axis of the wave should provide enough lift for scattered showers to develop during the day Friday. Precipitation is not expected to be as widespread, but some locations may see an additional few tenths of rain. A few hundred joules of CAPE may also support a few heavier showers and storms, resulting in some locally heavier accumulations. Temperatures would also likely be on the lower end of the probabilistic forecast depending on how expansive the cloud cover and showers are. Quickly after the shortwave exits, a broader mid-level low will also eject down from Canada, bringing another shot at rain this weekend. The attendant surface low and associated fronts should be stronger - highlighted by several ensemble members forecasting 30+ mph winds Sunday into Monday following the fropa. Wrap-around CAA showers are possible both Monday and Tuesday. Overall, QPF looks to be around another few tenths or so (highlighted by the Day 4-6 WPC QPF), with the greatest amounts closer to the US/Canada border. So, to summarize... no single day looks to be a washout Friday through Tuesday, but it will be a relatively active period with multiple chances for precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 Showers are continuing their eastward progression, with the bulk of the precipitation now in Wisconsin. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected for the majority of the afternoon across southern/eastern MN and WI. Gradual improvement will occur thereafter with the rain departing. Smoke could linger a few hours longer, but cigs should rebound despite this. KMSP...MVFR conditions expected for a few more hours as showers and smoke linger. Conditions should improve markedly by the evening rush, with a return to VFR cigs by mid-afternoon. Smoke will linger behind the showers, but should dissipate by this evening. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED/PV AVIATION...PV