769 FXUS63 KMPX 050810 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wet start early this morning due to an ongoing round of heavy rain. - Showers and thunderstorms develop early this afternoon and may produce isolated damaging wind gusts. - Lull in the activity Sunday, followed by additional storm chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Early morning regional radar displays an impressive axis of showers and thunderstorms extending from the Minnesota Arrowhead southwest into the central Great Plains. Fortunately, this axis of precipitation remained positioned across western MN through much of this past evening which allowed Independence Day events to move forward across much of the area. Today will serve as a bit of a transition day between the dangerous heat of the past few days (including at record warm low of 81 at MSP yesterday) and a very pleasant end to the weekend forecast on Sunday. Between these two modes is the ongoing round of precipitation mentioned above and what will likely be another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The morning batch of rain and isolated thunderstorms is tied to a shortwave advancing to the east across the Upper Midwest. An associated deep 850mb fetch through the Plains and into the western Gulf has advected tropical moisture illustrated by PWATs near 2" per SPC mesoanalysis. The presence of anomalous moisture in tandem with ~30kt elongated low-level jet axis has promoted healthy rainfall rates early this morning, which will gradually shift east through daybreak. MRMS QPE estimates at 3 AM depict that roughly a 0.5-1" of rain as fallen so far across western MN, with locally higher amounts (~1.5"+) tied to earlier convection. Should generally see similar rainfall amounts as the axis shifts east this morning, however there may be localized pockets of greater amounts tied to convection (most likely in association with an MCV over SW MN at this hour). Rainfall totals may exceed 2"+ for any location that can pair convective rainfall rates with any training of storms. This scenario is reflected by the latest WPC MPD`s. The initial batch of rain will have shifted east into Wisconsin by mid-morning (weakening/somewhat falling apart per the CAMs). Our focus will shift to renewed convection ahead of a surface cold front, which is forecast to move across the region through this afternoon. CAMs continue to show scattered showers & storms firing ahead of the front across southeast MN/western WI this afternoon. Weak shear and stable lapse rates will work against a greater threat for severe weather. However, guidance depicts ~1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE building ahead of the front, which may be enough to produce isolated instances of damaging wind. A Marginal Risk remains in place across far SE MN/W WI to represent this potential. On the flip side, the forecast should trend dry following the morning rain across western MN. While still humid, it should feel a bit better today with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Drier air will funnel into the Upper Midwest Sunday, which will make for a pleasant end to the holiday weekend. Highs are forecast to top out in the low 80s under sunny skies. I think the previous discussion said it best... The upcoming work week appears to be a "textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather conditions" starting with the return of storm chances on Monday. We`re not looking at a washout for the start of the week, however we do anticipate a couple of convective windows tied to ripples within the zonal flow aloft. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk across western MN in the new Day 3 outlook. ECMWF lightning flash rate parameter simulates this potential convection with a cluster of storms moving across western/central MN on Monday evening. More to come as details become better defined. A large scale shift to more pronounced SW ridging will mean the potential for additional storm chances for the second half of next week. Temperatures should be seasonable, in the low to mid 80s for much of the upcoming period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1038 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Current TAFs look on track with showers and storms moving across MN tonight. Confidence is increasing in a period of MVFR cigs (012 to 022) late tonight through much of the morning given the high levels of tropical moisture we have (precipitable water values over 2"). Confidence is high we`ll see another round of shra/tsra develop Saturday afternoon, though confidence remains low on exactly where in eastern MN/western WI those storms will fire. For them to impact MSP & RNH, storms will need to be initiating around 18z, after that, the front will be gone. KMSP...Forecast still looks on track. The HRRR continues to be the most aggressive CAM out there with bringing a line of TSRA through the Twin Cities metro early Saturday afternoon, so kept the afternoon TS threat in a prob30. Some cigs getting below 018 are still possible Saturday morning as well. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts. MON...VFR. Chc aftn & evening -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts. TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind lgt & vrb. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Strus AVIATION...MPG