247 FXUS63 KMPX 062342 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 642 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and pleasant today, with our next chance for storms late Monday into Tuesday. - Best chance for more widespread showers and storms returns on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A textbook Summer day is underway across the region. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s across south & central Minnesota. Dew points remain in the upper 60s & lower 70s across western Wisconsin but drier air will work it`s way in over the next 12 hours. Skies remain mostly clear with a few fair weather CU across SE MN & W WI. Overall - it`s a great day to get outside if possible. Temperatures will cool into the lower 60s overnight & mid to high level cloud cover will build in from the west. Monday & Tuesday... Rain & storm chances return to start the new work week. A shortwave currently over Alberta will track eastward along the international border through Monday night. This shortwave will tap into the instability built in across the Dakotas & thunderstorms develop ahead of the sfc cold front. These storms will track, reaching western MN early Monday evening. If we look at the latest forecast soundings across several different models, we`ll notice that the advertised environment isn`t great - but enough to sustain thunderstorms for a few hours. Moisture will pool ahead of the sfc boundary and support MUCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/Kg with 30+ knots of deep layer shear. Instability will gradually diminish through the evening before dropping off over E MN & W WI. This should cause storms to weaken Monday night as the convection continues to track east. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon/evening across western Minnesota. The primary concern will be large hail & damaging winds. Severe chances decrease as they move into a less favorable environment mentioned above. Tuesday will have some lingering showers across the eastern half of the forecast area (E MN/W WI) with a few additional pop up showers or storms possible Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday through next Sunday... A brief break between weather systems should offer another pleasant Summer day on Wednesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s. Thursday will mark the return of deeper low level moisture ahead of an impressive shortwave trough over the northern & central Rockies. While there is still uncertainty with the timing & placement of the features - there is a pretty good signal for another round of thunderstorms & rain Thursday & Friday time frame. This system will usher in cooler/drier northwest flow for next weekend & offer another brief break from rain & humidity. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Only weather concern for tonight is the potential for fog. Greatest fog potential will be across south central MN into western WI, where dewpoints managed to stay up in the lower 60s today, making cross-over temps at least achievable. Did add some tempo groups for a reduced vsby Monday morning at MKT/RNH/EAU. After that, we will be waiting on thunderstorms to develop in eastern SoDak Monday afternoon that will be entering western MN by the end of this period. Did bring in a treat of TS to AXN/RWF at the tail end of their TAFs, but it will be after 00z before storms reach anywhere else. KMSP...For Monday evening, the HRRR and RRFS are showing showers approaching MSP in the 2-4z Tuesday window (9-11pm Wed). Instability will be tailing off considerably by the time this activity reaches eastern MN, with current expectations being that we`ll see scattered showers and limited lightning. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Chc IFR cig/vis in mrng. Wind WNW 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Wind light/variable. THU...VFR. Chc TSRA overnight. Wind SSE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...MPG