067 FXUS63 KMPX 080543 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower & thunderstorm chances return this afternoon and evening. Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) of severe weather across western MN. - Next chance of Thunderstorms & Showers arrives Thursday night into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Current obs highlight temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Winds remain light & variable but will begin to increase & take on a southerly or southwesterly direction this afternoon. Visible satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies with a band of Cu from St Cloud down to the I-90 corridor. Further upstream is a cluster of bubbly Cu tied to an intensifying thunderstorm along the MN/SD border. This area of thunderstorms will require monitoring over the next several hours as it enters W MN. Hires guidance has struggled a bit to capture the morning convection ongoing over the Dakotas likely causing a later arrival time into W MN than reality. Latest HRRR appears to have initialized better than previous runs & has the ongoing thunderstorms. The general theme is for a cluster of thunderstorms to eventually congeal into an MCS somewhere between far E SD and W MN before tracking into west-central and southern Minnesota this afternoon. These should be able to further intensify as they move into W MN. Forecast soundings from the HRRR highlight 1000-2000 J/Kg CAPE, 35 kts+ effective shear, & modest lapse rates (6.0-6.5 C/km). A marginal but sufficient convective environment that`ll limit the higher end potential of any severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary severe concern is driven by potential for damaging winds this afternoon. This threat is increased if storms are manage to organize into an MCS & sustain a strong enough cold pool without it surging ahead of the complex. IF it can sustain it`s cold pool & not choke itself out - there will likely be a legitimate severe wind threat into C MN this afternoon & evening. What are the limiting factor`s? Well the earlier timing could limit how much additional instability builds downstream over central & southern Minnesota. This would limit the longevity of the thunderstorms/MCS as they trek eastward through the afternoon & evening hours. This is good news for those in the Twin Cities & locations east - the threat should remain in west/southwest/central MN. SPC day 1 SWO upgraded FAR western Minnesota into an Enhanced risk while trimming back the Slight & Marginal risks. PoPs gradually decrease this evening across E MN & W WI, matching the weakening trend of any convection. QPF amounts for 0.10" to 0.25" in the Twin Cities and along & east of I- 35. Tuesday through Sunday... the weather pattern will be fairly quiet over the next several days. Our next chance for rain/thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday. There is some uncertainty of the exact evolution but there has been a persistent signal for a more widespread rain event. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 80s through Friday. Cooler temperatures will follow the rain chances for the upcoming weekend, which is reflected in the NBM with highs in the 70s. The pattern seems to continue through mid July with a stretch of 2-4 days of typical Summer heat & humidity, 1-2 days of rain/storm threat, then 1-3 days of slightly less humid Summer weather. We`re entering the time of year where our precipitation averages begin to decrease week over week so it wouldn`t be too surprising if things end up slightly drier by mid month. Fortunately, there doesn`t appear to be any significant heat on the horizon either. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Patchy fog will develop overnight, but confidence is low where and if any TAF sites will be impacted. A higher concentration of IFR obs near STC point to better potential there and the TAF continues to indicate IFR conditions possible overnight. High clouds may prohibit much development across southern MN and WI. A few lower clouds could develop Tuesday morning area wide before mixing deepens by afternoon. KMSP...Enough wind overnight should keep persistent fog from forming, but there could still be some shallow patches close to dawn. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N 5kts. THU...VFR, chc -TSRA overnight. Wind S 5-10kts. FRI...SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind SW 5-10kts bcmg W 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...Borghoff