499 FXUS63 KMPX 261102 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 602 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s on Sunday. - Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early next week with thunderstorm chances. Severe storms are possible Sunday night. - Cooler and drier conditions later next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 Conditions will be tranquil today but the same cannot be said about temperatures. Currently, most sites overnight especially across southern MN struggled to fall below 70 degrees which will become a pattern for the next couple of nights. Satellite currently showing a slot of clearer skies that extends from NE MN down to the eastern Dakotas which bisects a subtle wave over the Dakotas the NW and another wave to the SE across central IA. An MCV is progged to move across the mid-Mississippi Valley today. In the wake of its passage, temperatures will be slightly cooler, add this with southerly flow, temperatures across southern MN are forecast to be a few degrees less than neighboring MN/WI counties. Farther west along the border of MN and the Dakotas, thermal ridging builds and moisture increases. Forecast highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s, especially for areas along and west of the MN River Valley. Heat indices in this region will near 100 degrees this afternoon which is reflect with a Heat Advisory through this evening. Farther east, heat indices are expected to range in the low to mid 90s. More suspended wildfire smoke (this time from fires in NM) is expected to advect slowly eastward late Saturday into Sunday. Impacts to air quality however are not anticipated as HRRR Surface Smoke guidance look to be more concentrated aloft than at the surface. By Sunday, thermal continues to build and head eastward which then places more of MN/WI beneath the heat dome. Convective contamination (which could help mitigate some of the heat) looks to be null and void as 700mb temps exceed 12C. Dew points will make a run at mid 70s for most areas and low 90 surface temps will be common. These factors along with WBGT in the mid to upper 80s has prompted an Extreme Heat Watch to be issued for central and southern MN and portions of western WI Sunday afternoon/evening. Heat indices across southwestern MN are forecast to reach the low to mid 100s and exceed 100 degrees across the Twin Cities metro. By Sunday night a troughing pattern will reach central Canada which will aid in flow to turn more westerly. Convection potential remains likely as shortwaves move about the ridge in place in the form of either one or multiple MCS`. There is still uncertainty about how far south this system or systems will reach but as of now central up to northern MN look to have better potential to see storms Sunday night into Monday. Depending on what occurs Sunday night will dictate what occurs Monday. A boundary is expected to develop which will serve as another primary source of lift. Take this and mesh it together with unseasonably high PWATs, very unstable airmass, and with a strengthening LLJ will support another round of convection. Troughing over Canada will sag further south into MN which should force most convection to be closer to the MN/IA border or farther south. For the remainder of the week, surface high pressure builds in allowing for cooler temperatures and drier conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR. Upper-level sct to few cigs will become SKC later this morning. Light southerly winds increase by mid-morning with a few gusts 18-20kt possible at AXN, RWF, and STC. Suspended wildfire smoke is expected to move from west to east later this afternoon into the evening. Impacts to visibility are not expected other than a transition back to high VFR cigs. MVFR Fog is possible very late in the TAF but did not include this TAF due to lack of confidence of development extent across sites. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts. WED...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10G15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa- Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville- Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift- Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine. WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dunleavy AVIATION...Dunleavy