990 FXUS63 KMPX 090003 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 703 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off periods of showers through Monday afternoon. - Warmer and more active pattern Wednesday through Friday. Potential for multiple rounds of strong storms and heavy rain through the end of the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Scattered to broken mid-level clouds are gradually increasing across the region this afternoon. Cloud coverage aligns with a vorticity maximum centered over northern Minnesota. Little in the way of precipitation has developed thus far from this forcing, but that will change as the evening goes on. There were a few small thunderstorms near Eau Claire over the past few hours, but those have since moved out of the area. As we remain sandwiched between two vorticity maximums, smoke has made its way to the surface across southern Minnesota. This will be short lived and should clear by the early evening. Following the smoke`s departure, next batch of rain will arrive. Cold air will advect southward as the vorticity maximum slides southward. This will show in the form of scattered rain showers during the overnight period. With PWATs only 70-80% of normal, Little accumulation (T to 0.05") is expected at any given location with only a small chance for a rumble of thunder. On Monday afternoon, the chance for diurnal showers, much like what we`ve been experiencing the last few days, will return. This go-around will favor western Wisconsin, with western/southern Minnesota likely remaining dry. For most, Monday will be the last day with highs in the 60s for a while as things look to warm up Tuesday onward. A broad ridge will brush the area with westerly/southwesterly winds to take hold, allowing sunny skies and highs in the 80s. By Wednesday, the 80s will stick around as a warm front pushes through just to our south and brings the chance for showers and storms with it. These chances linger across southern Minnesota late Wednesday into Thursday before finally shifting northward overnight into Friday. With forecast PWATs in the 150% of normal range, this overnight period is when we could see 6 hour QPF amounts of greater than a half inch in isolated spots. With ample moisture present, it will come down to the alignment of the forcing and where the low tracks to our south. Current three day QPF amounts are greater than an inch for nearly the entire MPX CWA, but that can and will change as new model guidance comes in. Looking at forecast PoPs, the NBM has a wide temporal range with >50% running from Thursday morning through Friday night. As things get closer, this window will likely shorten and we will gain a better grasp on what to expect. For now, the takeaway is to stay up-to-date with the forecast if you have any plans mid to late week. The severe potential is there, but the pieces have to come together. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 651 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Another tricky TAF period with respect to timing of nuisance showers across each TAF site over the next 24 hours. Best timing of precip looks to be 3 main timeframes: 1) First within an hour or two of initialization. 2) Main batch overnight. 3) Possible round of SHRA/TSRA mid-to-late afternoon Monday. Each round may bring MVFR-IFR conditions, with fairly high confidence in MVFR ceilings overnight for much of tomorrow as a large upper level low slowly rotates away from the Upper Midwest. Gusty W-NW winds at initialization will quickly diminish early this evening and remain around 10kts overnight before picking up again from midday Monday onward. KMSP...Scattered SHRA in western MN will likely move across the terminal within the first 1-2 hrs of this TAF period, but the most likely steady/heaviest showers will come around midnight and continue into the early morning hours. Precipitation looks to end prior to the start of the Monday morning push. There is a chance for additional SHRA/TSRA early-mid afternoon but the timing is still subject to change along with confidence level. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts. WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind SW bcmg SE 5-10 kts. THU...VFR. Chc -TSRA late. Wind E 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PV AVIATION...JPC