527
FXUS63 KMPX 072318
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend begins tomorrow and continues through the
  upcoming weekend.

- Chance for scattered rain showers Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Call it picture perfect, but just a little chilly across the Upper
Midwest this afternoon. The influence of 1026mb high pressure across
southern Canada has supported blue skies and ample sunshine.
However, northerly flow and 850mb T`s around -10C are both working
to limit surface heating. Early afternoon observations show
temperatures running a few degrees above freezing, in the mid 30s.
Highs are on track to finish in the upper 30s/near 40, which is
about ~10-12 degrees below normal. A clear and quiet night is
ahead, with lows dipping into the upper teens (central MN), to
the mid 20s (southern MN/western WI). High pressure shifts east
Tuesday, which will allow for mid-level thermal ridging to
expand east over the region. Temperatures will warm well into
the 40s in response to rising upper heights and increasing warm
air advection. Warmer temperatures are forecast along and
southwest of the Minnesota River, where highs will climb into
the low to mid 50s.

By Wednesday morning, the upper-level pattern is forecast to feature
a trough departing east of the Great Lakes, followed by a relatively
zonal jetstreak advancing east over the northwestern CONUS. Surface
low pressure will develop on the nose of the jetstreak across
the central Plains and track from central Nebraska southeast
into western Illinois during the day. Warm advection will
continue ahead of the surface low, which should push temperatures
into 50s for most locations. 60s appear possible along the
Buffalo Ridge. By Thursday morning, the upper-level pattern will
take more of a meridional shape, as the ridge amplifies over
the western CONUS and troughing occurs in response over the Ohio
Valley. A "clipper-type" shortwave is forecast to translate
southeast along the jet axis Thursday, which will send a
trailing surface low out of the Dakotas south into Iowa. The
aforementioned evolution will use the transport of Pacific
moisture to introduce scattered shower chances across the
forecast area Wednesday into Thursday morning. Despite the
influence of Pacific moisture, it`s likely that the atmosphere
takes some time to saturate given the dry antecedent conditions,
so am not overly optimistic with QPF returns. WPC`s latest
forecast seems reasonable, with a few hundredths to a tenth of
an inch of QPF across the area over the ~36-hr period. Additionally,
not expecting much in the way of thunder given the lackluster
instability. Gusty winds may accompany a few of the showers,
owing steep lapse rates aloft. NBM displays a slightly cooler
Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 50s.

Expansive western ridge will move over the Upper Midwest for the end
of the work week and start of next weekend. Mid-level warm advection
will begin Friday, before intensifying Saturday and Sunday. As you
may expect, this process aims to yield the warmest air of the
period. Latest NBM advertises the upper 50s/low 60s Friday, 60s
to low 70s Saturday, and widespread 70s on Sunday. Additionally,
most of the guidance projects a mostly dry weekend. However,
the global deterministic suite does introduce a potent surface
cyclone across the Upper Midwest in the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe.
There is low confidence given the forecast distance, though a
"smoothed" view of each ensemble system suggests that wet
weather may return to the forecast around a week from now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Another quiet TAF period is in store, with SKC becoming FEW250
later on with VFR for all sites throughout. Winds initially
below 10kts at 330-360 will become calm overnight, shifting
towards 160-190 by the end of the period and remaining under
10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...TDH