468 FXUS63 KDLH 262056 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances return to the Northland late tonight, in the first of several waves of showers and storms. - A lull in shower activity is possible Sunday afternoon and early evening, before additional rain and thunderstorms move through the area Monday. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be Monday afternoon and evening. Additionally, heavy rainfall is likely. - Cooler temperatures expected Tuesday before warming back up for the remainder of the week with more rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Surface high pressure is centered over western Lake Superior this afternoon, with light south to southeasterly winds for much of the Northland. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have warmed into the upper 40s to lower 60s. Further west, near Brainerd Lakes and points northward, winds are increasing with a few gusts of 15mph ahead of the next weather system. The surface high will continue to pull east of the area tonight, with southerly winds continuing to increase and advect moisture back to the area. Conditions will remain rainfree this evening with increasing clouds. Overnight lows fall into the lower 40s for eastern portions of the Arrowhead, and mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. A large weather system will begin approaching the area tonight, bringing several waves of showers and storms to the Northland through Monday night. As an upper low moves northeastward from southern California tonight, an initial shortwave will round a flattening upper level ridge currently extending northward from the Gulf through the Plains. Elevated forcing and increasing moisture will allow for showers to spread southwest to northeast beginning late tonight across the Northland. Will not rule out a rumble of thunder, with increasing lapse rates and LLJ of 30-40kt, but with little height changes and a lack of instability, expect this round to lean toward light to moderate rain showers due to isentropic lift over an approaching warm front. A lull in activity is possible tomorrow afternoon, with mild temperatures and breezy southerly winds. Brief height rises are expected over the Northland as the upper trough and surface low move into the Central Plains. A warm/stationary front will likely extend northeastward through the area, and remain a focus for scattered showers Sunday evening. Will bring low pops back into the area after 7PM Sunday. A few elevated storms are possible after midnight through Monday morning as upper and mid level jets increase as a stronger shortwave pivots around the base of the upper level trough over the Plains. Expect more significant height falls by Monday afternoon, as the surface low approaches the Northland. A warm sector will surge northward, enhanced by increased jet features and characterized by CAPE values over 1000J/kg and bulk shear values over 50kts. Severe storm potential will increase, with damaging winds and hail possible. Heavy rainfall is expected to the north of the surface low track, where PW values of 1.0-1.2 inches are expected. This will help suppress the surface based warm sector, and potential for a few tornadoes, to northwest WI. We need to consider a few limiting factors for Monday afternoon. One, how quickly the morning activity moves out of the area, and whether the airmass can recover or remain fairly stable. This would result in less thunder chances and mainly heavy rainfall for the area. Two, with strong warm advection, at least a weak cap is expected to persist into the afternoon. This could limit severe potential for any thunderstorms until the late afternoon/early evening. A cold front sweeps through the area Monday night, bringing an end of the rain and a brief cooldown Tuesday. A few snow showers are possible on the backside of the system early Tuesday, but do not expect and snow accumulations. Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the week with another chance for rainfall Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 VFR conditions continue through the overnight period, with high pressure slowly exiting to the east. High and mid level clouds increase this afternoon and evening, from west to east. Rain chances increase after 12Z Sunday morning, especially near BRD eastward to HYR. Cigs lower to MVFR for most terminals Sunday morning as well, as winds increase from the southeast with gusts of 20-22kts. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025 Wind turn northeasterly tonight as surface high pressure exits to the east, at 5 to 15 knots, highest in the western arm. Winds then increase tomorrow from the southeast with gusts to 20 knots that linger into Sunday night. Rain and storm chances arrive on Sunday and continue into Monday and Monday night. Strong to severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening with large hail and wind gusts to 50 knots possible. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HA AVIATION...HA MARINE...HA