704
FXUS63 KDLH 231728
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1128 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak clipper system will bring a chance for light snow and freezing
  drizzle, mainly over northwest WI. Any ice accumulations are
  expected before noon today.

- Dry conditions settle over the Northland around mid-week with
  cloud cover largely persisting.

- Temperatures will be on a warming trend starting Christmas Day
  and continuing into the weekend. High temps are likely to
  reach above freezing for most locations during the latter half
  of this week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

A shortwave trough wil be propagating through the Upper Midwest
today, bringing the potential of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle to
portions of the CWA today. WV satellite imagery early this morning
shows the trough axis located in western MN, with the majority of
moisture associated with this system being just south and east of
the CWA. Since the majority of moisture will be outside of the CWA,
impacts are expected to be minimal today.

The main concern is the potential for freezing drizzle this morning
in southern Sawyer and Price Counties. Hi-res model soundings in
northwest WI show a loss of saturation aloft above 3000 ft AGL
occurring later this morning, with low-level saturation occurring in
a sub-freezing layer. While this set-up can be conducive for
freezing drizzle, uncertainty is high today due to weak upward
forcing and the arrival of low-level subsidence this afternoon.
Maintained a mention of freezing drizzle this morning in northwest
WI with light ice accumulations up to a few hundredths of an inch in
Price County and far southeast Sawyer County. However, confidence in
accumulating ice is low today. In addition to the freezing drizzle
potential, light snow accumulating to 0.5" or less will be possible
today in north-central WI.

After the shortwave exits the CWA tonight, quiet conditions will
move in for Christmas Eve as high pressure builds. A shortwave
trough will be propagating through on Tuesday night, although the
forecast was kept dry as this shortwave is progged to have little
moisture associated with it. Starting on Christmas Day, a strong WAA
regime is expected to develop as the polar jet stream dives into the
southern High Plains. This pattern of southerly flow is very likely
to increase high temps above freezing for the latter half of this
week into next weekend. In addition, low temps will be near or even
above freezing, most widespread on Friday night into Saturday
morning. This will likely lead to some melting of the snowpack,
especially as multiple chances for rain arrive late this upcoming
week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Precipitation with the exiting clipper system has moved south of
the Northland. However, MVFR to IFR stratus continues to hang
around through much of the afternoon, with patchy fog in north-
central MN improving as the afternoon continues. There may be a
brief period later this afternoon and evening where this stratus
briefly scatters out from north to south, but this looks to be
short-lived if it does occur as ceilings quickly deteriorate to
IFR to LIFR for most terminals. INL would be the most likely to
see a slightly longer period of scattered ceilings. Fog also
returns tonight into Tuesday morning, primarily being MVFR in
nature, but isolated IFR visibilities can`t be ruled out. Winds
will generally be light through the period. Northerly winds of 5
to 10 knots become calm to light and variable tonight and then
turn veer southerly for Tuesday with daytime gusts of 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 406 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Northeast winds gusting up to 20 knots are expected today as a low
pressure system moves through the Upper Midwest. Waves will be
building up to 2 to 4 feet in the outer Apostle Islands to Saxon
Harbor late this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to
ease tonight and shift southerly for tomorrow. Small Craft
Advisories are not anticipated to be needed today into mid-week as
winds ease to 15 knots or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Unruh