139 FXUS63 KMPX 030010 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 710 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing storms continue through this evening, with primary hazards being severe winds and localized hail. - Degraded air quality due to Canadian wildfire smoke through tomorrow. - Warming trend continues, with highs in the lower 90s Monday afternoon. && .UPDATE... Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The threat for severe weather has diminished this evening, but some rain and rumbles of thunder are still expected over the next few hours. Smoke is evident on satellite and surface obs behind the front across western Minnesota. This has led to visibilities falling to 3 miles or less. Surface smoke and rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder are expected to continue into tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 True-color satellite shows today`s weather story quite well, with pockets of dense smoke out ahead of convection east of the MN/Dakotas border region this afternoon. Across the region, we have widespread temperatures in the 80s and even some low to mid 90s out west (Madison, MN peaked at 95 already!) combined with dewpoints in the upper 50s. Despite the dry boundary layer, mid- level lapse rates around 7 C/km and a tongue of MUCAPE values approaching 2000+ J/kg are expected to be enough to support a few instances of severe hail and wind across western and central MN this afternoon. Not to mention, winds are already quite gusty out ahead of the front, the inverted-V soundings on top of that would suggest any better organized storms will certainly be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. As of 230PM, an ongoing broken line of cells is moving quickly through west-central MN. Reports of downed trees and multiple measured gusts above 58 mph support the idea that our main threat today will be damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 7pm, primarily for this specific segment as it moves east. Confidence is low with long it will be able to hold on given the limited instability to the east, but the ongoing convection could be enough to modify the near-storm environment and persist through the entirety of the Watch area. As far as timing goes, the line of storms will approach eastern MN (including the Twin Cities metro) this evening around 6-7pm. We expect the storms to weaken the further east they travel based on the less favorable storm environment that they`ll be moving into. At the same time, development on the southern portion of the line will likely occur through the afternoon. Primary threats will continue to be damaging winds and large hail for any of this future development. The most favorable environment continues to be highlighted well by the convective outlook by SPC, with those within the Slight risk (level 2 of 5) in the best region for the aforementioned future development. By later this evening, hi-res models show the front stalling out in a southwest to northeast orientation with training showers and general thunderstorms leading to a localized flooding risk. The WPC`s ERO highlights this with the marginal risk area through tomorrow. Any severe potential should be well south and east, by the rain will continue through early tomorrow afternoon. Skies should clear quickly after the rain exits east, but the downward mixing behind the front is expected to return our smoky/hazy conditions. Wednesday through this Weekend... The upper level pattern becomes a bit more muted to end the week, with mainly northwest or zonal flow over the Northern Plains. The latest NBM shows on and off shower chances through Friday, which is a result of some models producing one or more weak shortwaves. The best signal looks to be towards the end of the weekend into early next week when a more potent mid level low tracks across the US/Canada border. Outside of those chances for precipitation, the weather looks to remain relatively quiet with highs near the upper 70s each day and winds generally at or below 10 mph. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front extend from far east central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin down through KMSP back into southwestern Minnesota. The threat for thunder is diminishing as the front continues to move east, with -SHRA and smoke becoming the main weather concern through the remainder of the overnight hours for all terminals. Visibilities behind the front with the smoke have fallen to 3SM or less at times. Expecting more of an MVFR vis set up as we get towards the morning hours, but a handful of sites will see cigs fall into IFR territory. Winds are northwesterly behind the front with gusts of 25-30kts. Winds will drop off by early morning with a return to VFR conditions expected by the end of the period for all except our Wisconsin terminals. KMSP...The line of storms has cleared MSP, but -SHRA will continue over the next several hours. Cigs fall to MVFR after midnight and dip into IFR territory by sunrise, with the smoke mentioned above filtering in by late morning. MVFR cigs/vis will return by early afternoon with VFR expected by 00z Wednesday. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts. THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ UPDATE...Dye DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dye