864 FXUS63 KMPX 042257 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 557 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke continues for western Wisconsin continues into Tuesday. - Scattered rain chances tonight across western and central Minnesota. - Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances will arrive mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 Quiet start to the work week, with only scattered showers ongoing north of the I-94 corridor. There is not much forcing available with the ridge building overhead, but most hi-res models attempt to initiate a small cluster of storms overnight across western MN. Our better chance for more widespread precipitation will come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk was expanded eastwards to account for any destabilization that occurs in the wake of these morning storms. Again, forcing will be limited, but any storms that form later in the day could produce gusty winds or isolated hail. Not to use the "s" word again, but we are expecting a period of smoke to return to eastern Minnesota tonight. Although it could be heavy at times, the good news is that it should be mostly overnight and only for a short duration. This is why you`ll see the new Air Quality Alert excludes places like St Cloud and the Twin Cities - only locations further north should see a longer period of impacts this time around. The rest of the week will feature a rebound to hot and humid conditions as S/SW-erly flow increases across the Plains into the Upper Midwest. The warmest days will likely come Thursday and Friday, with air temps in the upper 80s to low 90s combining with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will crank the heat indices right back into the 90s, potentially prompting another round of heat advisories as we get closer. The heat and ridging is expected to break down this weekend as an upper level shortwave kicks east. It looks to be quite strong over the Pacific NW, but may weaken as it moves across the northern Plains. Thus, the impacts may be muted as it approached MN & western WI, however this still looks like the best chances of seeing organized convection in the upcoming week. The SPC introduced a slight risk for Friday into Saturday, which covers the greatest risk across the Dakotas and part of western MN. Timing could be key, with the front potentially moving through MN late Friday night. This could also be a limiting factor with the forcing dampened outside of peak heating hours. We may see more airmass-type showers and storms Sunday and Monday, but most the QPF (~0.25-0.75") will be tied to the fropa. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025 All terminals are finally FU free! While some smoke is still evident on satellite this evening, it doesn`t appear to be impacting visibilities much. Light southeast to variable winds are expected overnight into tomorrow with mainly mid/high clouds through the end of the TAF period. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts. THU...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts. FRI...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...Dye