864
FXUS63 KMPX 042257
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
557 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality due to wildfire smoke continues for western
  Wisconsin continues into Tuesday.

- Scattered rain chances tonight across western and central
  Minnesota.

- Heat, humidity, and thunderstorm chances will arrive mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Quiet start to the work week, with only scattered showers
ongoing north of the I-94 corridor. There is not much forcing
available with the ridge building overhead, but most hi-res
models attempt to initiate a small cluster of storms overnight
across western MN. Our better chance for more widespread
precipitation will come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
The SPC Day 3 Marginal Risk was expanded eastwards to account
for any destabilization that occurs in the wake of these morning
storms. Again, forcing will be limited, but any storms that
form later in the day could produce gusty winds or isolated
hail.

Not to use the "s" word again, but we are expecting a period of
smoke to return to eastern Minnesota tonight. Although it could
be heavy at times, the good news is that it should be mostly
overnight and only for a short duration. This is why you`ll see
the new Air Quality Alert excludes places like St Cloud and the
Twin Cities - only locations further north should see a longer
period of impacts this time around.

The rest of the week will feature a rebound to hot and humid
conditions as S/SW-erly flow increases across the Plains into
the Upper Midwest. The warmest days will likely come Thursday
and Friday, with air temps in the upper 80s to low 90s combining
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will crank
the heat indices right back into the 90s, potentially prompting
another round of heat advisories as we get closer.

The heat and ridging is expected to break down this weekend as
an upper level shortwave kicks east. It looks to be quite
strong over the Pacific NW, but may weaken as it moves across
the northern Plains. Thus, the impacts may be muted as it
approached MN & western WI, however this still looks like the
best chances of seeing organized convection in the upcoming
week. The SPC introduced a slight risk for Friday into Saturday,
which covers the greatest risk across the Dakotas and part of
western MN. Timing could be key, with the front potentially
moving through MN late Friday night. This could also be a
limiting factor with the forcing dampened outside of peak
heating hours. We may see more airmass-type showers and storms
Sunday and Monday, but most the QPF (~0.25-0.75") will be tied
to the fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 552 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2025

All terminals are finally FU free! While some smoke is still
evident on satellite this evening, it doesn`t appear to be
impacting visibilities much. Light southeast to variable winds
are expected overnight into tomorrow with mainly mid/high
clouds through the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Slight chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...Dye