368
FXUS63 KMPX 220828
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
328 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and very humid conditions again today with heat indices of
105 to 110 degrees. Extreme Heat Warnings continue.
- Conditional threat for severe thunderstorms over Minnesota
tonight, particularly western portions.
- The active weather pattern resumes starting Tuesday with
multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms, including the
potential for heavy rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Surface analysis this morning depicts the stagnant wavy west-
to-east surface front extending from the Great Lakes across far
northern WI and central MN to weak surface low over the ND/SD/MN
triple point, continuing westward to a stronger near-990mb low
over western NE. Aloft, the large southeastern CONUS ridge
continues to rotate in place while the longwave tough over the
northwestern CONUS also remains in place. Benign southwest flow
will maintain a heat dome over the Upper Midwest today with
overnight temperatures from the mid 70s to lower 80s as a
starting point, leading to highs into the 90s area-wide, with
some 100+ temps in far western MN. Dewpoints again in the lower
70s will produce heat index values of 105-110 area-wide, thus
the Extreme Heat Warning remains in place for the entire WFO MPX
coverage area into this evening. There is some uncertainty as
to how "high" minimum temperatures will be early Monday morning.
Should areas expect lows to remain at or over 75 degrees, which
is very possible for a few counties in western WI, the warning
may be extended out through Monday morning. This is entirely
dependent on how far east the cold front associated with the
stronger aforementioned low pressure center make it across our
coverage area. If it lingers farther west, additional counties
may experience the more extreme overnight heat, so due to this
uncertainty, the headlines will continue as-is in this cycle.
By the evening hours, the stronger low from NE will shift into
northern MN while the cold front takes on a more N-S orientation
as it moves east into western MN. While the mid-levels will
likely remain fairly capped through the afternoon, there will be
the rather moist and unstable pre-frontal airmass with
dewpoints into the lower 70s and appreciably bulk shear in the
30-40kt range along with steep lapse rates of 8-9 deg C/km. Much
of the severe potential for this evening into tonight is highly
conditional, but any storms that do develop may become strong
to severe fairly quickly with an eroding cap by that time. Large
hail and damaging straight-line winds are possible, with an
isolated tornado unable to be ruled out. The best potential for
any severe weather will be in western MN, in closest proximity
to the front in the peak of daytime heating. Scattered
showers/storms will persist overnight through the first half of
Monday, possibly an increase in coverage over far southern MN
during the day Monday again in response to daytime heating. With
the front expected to be south of the WFO MPX coverage area
come Monday, much lower temperatures are expected with highs
running from the mid 70s to mid 80s.
The front will then stall out to the south of MN/WI from Tuesday
onward, lifting slightly northward into southern MN Wednesday-
Thursday as the southeastern CONUS, albeit flattened, lifts back
north and works to create a more zonal flow over the central
CONUS. Thus, moisture advection from multiple sources (Pacific,
Baja, and Gulf) will converge along the stalled front to produce
plentiful rain Tuesday night through Thursday. PWATs are still
forecast to be around 2" for each 12-hr period during that time,
potentially making for training storms which could produce
heavy rain at times. WPC continues to advertise a Slight risk of
Excessive Rain for Tuesday- Wednesday as rainfall totals look
to run 2-3" for much of the coverage area Tuesday-Thursday, with
isolated totals of 4" not unreasonable. Cooler temperatures
will accompany all these rain complications, with highs
generally in the 70s Tuesday-Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Wind is the main concern, with dry weather and few clouds. The
low level jet remains strong, though not as strong as the
previous night. Still, KFSD VAD wind profile shows 40 knots 2K
feet AGL, while TMSP in the east metro shows 50 knots at 2K
feet AGL. Once the nocturnal jet wanes, the gradient and a dry
adiabatic profile will team up for 25-35 knot gusts by late
morning and continuing into Sunday evening. There may be more
low level wind shear Sunday night and that may need to be added
to the 12Z forecast.
Otherwise, added a chance of storms to KAXN later Sunday
evening with the incoming cold front.
KMSP...There may be a need to add a PROB30 for TSRA Monday
morning sometime after 09Z, but it is too uncertain to include
it now.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind W-NW 10-20kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind E-NE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Wind E 5-15kts.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025
Both MSP and STC set record highs of 96 degrees on Saturday,
June 21, breaking the previous records of 95 set in 1910.
Record high temperatures are possible again on Sunday with
hot/humid air in place and the warm front remaining to the
north of our coverage area.
*** Forecast/Record Highs Sun June 22 ***
Location | Forecast | Record
------------------------------
MSP | 96 | 98 (1911)
STC | 94 | 98 (1911)
EAU | 95 | 99 (1995)
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-
Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-
Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-
Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-
Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-
Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDK
CLIMATE...WFO MPX