759 FXUS63 KMPX 100846 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 346 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - West central MN to make a run at the 90s today. - Heavy rain threat (1-3 inches) continues to increase for southern MN into western WI Thursday night into Friday. - Active weather pattern looks to settle in next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Water vapor imagery this morning shows two features of interest. The first is the remnants of the deep upper low that came through here yesterday that is now spinning northeast out of the Great Lakes. The cyclonic flow on the backside of this system is responsible for the stratus across all but western and south central MN early this morning. The other feature of interest is a shortwave up in central Saskatchewan and Manitoba at 3am. This will remain in Canada today, but it will force a cold front across MN this afternoon. It will be a dry front, but it will pull a thermal ridge into southwest MN, which is where forecast highs in the lower 90s is coming from for today in west central MN. On the opposite end of our area, it will be a different story. They`ll be more under the influence of the low moving out of the Great Lakes, with the cloud cover sticking around much of the day, which results in forecast highs 20 degrees cooler (lower 70s) for places like Ladysmith and Eau Claire. Although today`s front comes through dry, it won`t stay that way, with it becoming a focus for precip through Friday in the region. We may start seeing some light rain/sprinkles from its mid-level cloud deck tonight, though mid-level fgen picks up on Wednesday, when we should see a band of stratiform rain develop over southern MN. The front will remain south of us through Wednesday night. QPF continues to trend down in the MPX area Wednesday night, as we look to basically remain in a stratiform rain setup. That begins to change on Thursday as the front and associated instability nudges north. NBM wind forecast shows the nose of an inverted trough coming up to the I-90 corridor Friday morning. As this surface feature moves in, we`ll see a shortwave come out of the Dakotas and into MN. This shortwave will lead to an increase in the LLJ that will help increase moisture and lift across the area. The result looks to be an over running rain event. The heaviest rain right now is favored from southwest MN, across the Twin Cities into western WI, which aligns with the Slight Risk of excessive rainfall in the Day3 Excessive Rain Outlook form WPC. Though given the convective nature of the setup, some movement in this heavy rain signal is likely over the couple of day. Looking at the EPS, about 35 of the 50 members bring this heavy rain through MSP, with QPF in the 1 to 3 inch range for those members. For Saturday, we`ll see a wedge of high pressure centered over Quebec nudge southwest into the upper MS Valley. This will bring a cooler and drier airmass in, with highs on Saturday expected in the lower 70s at best, though it will give us a breather from rain chances. How stubborn this dry airmass is will determine how quickly shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast Sunday into next week. Aloft, mean h2 winds from the EPS show that next week, the upper jet will remain more or less parked across the north central CONUS, which is where the expected active weather pattern comes from. However, there`s a lot of spread in details such as timing of individual shortwaves and fronts. Because of that uncertainty, the NBM has nearly continuous 40% PoPs from Sunday through Tuesday, which is basically climatology. Given the forecast setup of the jet, this is the type of pattern where we see a front or shortwave pass through every 18 to 36 hours, so there will be ample opportunities for rain next week, but this far out, there`s not much agreement on when those thunderstorm chances will be best. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Generally clean and VFR TAF set. Some MVFR ceilings are possible early on, then all sites go VFR overnight with diminishing mid-level cloud cover. Mid- to-upper level clouds return tomorrow despite the dry forecast, but the upper level clouds are likely to be from passing smoke aloft. Generally westerly winds, varying from NW to SW then back to NW over the course of this duration with speeds 5-15kts. KMSP...Partial clearing overnight through tomorrow with elevated high clouds/smoke expected. Breezy/gusty winds at initialization will settle down overnight through tomorrow as directions shift from NW to SW then back to NW over the course of this duration. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Mainly VFR. Chc RA/TSRA/MVFR late. Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR likely late, chc IFR. Wind E 10 kts. FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MPG AVIATION...JPC