953 FXUS63 KMPX 100010 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 710 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers linger this afternoon and evening. - Active pattern returns Wednesday through Friday. Potential for multiple rounds of strong storms and heavy rain through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 There certainly is no shortage of rain chances over the next 7 days. We start the period off with ongoing showers across eastern MN and into much of WI. As the upper low spins east, warmer low-mid level temps advect in from the northwest. This slight ridging will generally decrease our cloud cover and rain activity, however a small kink in the wave could produce enough lift for mid level clouds and isolated showers to form during the afternoon. Starting Wednesday, a surge of low-level moisture from the Gulf will fuel several days of heavy rain across the Upper Midwest. PWAT values around 1 to 1.5 inches will stretch across a stalled boundary Wednesday afternoon as this area of anomalous moisture clashes with a drier air mass to the north. Showers and thunderstorms could train eastwards for several hours in this region, resulting in a marginal risk of flash flooding (favored to be near the MN/IA border as highlighted in the Day 3 WPC ERO). As WPC notes, instability could be a big limiting factor with models keeping that boundary (and the juicy 60+ degree dewpoints) further south. Without convection, the stratiform showers would be less likely to lead to any flooding risk. Especially given that soils are generally at or below normal in the area. The risk for heavy rain continues into Thursday and Friday, with the boundary largely remaining near the MN/IA border, but shifting slightly northwards. Thursday appears to have the highest ceiling for widespread heavy rain, even spreading into northern MN potentially. The Euro ensemble produces some bullish 24 hour rainfall totals (2"+), whereas the GEFS and Canadian Ensemble are closer to the 1 to 1.5 inch rain as 24 hour maximums. Investigating more into each of the EPS members revealed that the higher totals were tied to greater MUCAPE values, suggesting a similar scenario where the amount of instability and convection will play a role in any flooding potential. Once all is said and done, folks could be looking at 1"+ in central MN & western WI, and 2.5"+ across southern MN through Friday. The ridge remains in place over the central US heading into the weekend, but our moisture flow could be cut off by a weak surface low over the Southern Plains. The NBM has kept sporadic 10-30% PoPs Saturday and Sunday, but this time period does not look to be a washout like we could have during this week. Long range models hint towards the ridge breaking down next week, with accompanying shower and storm chances continuing our rainy June. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025 Generally clean and VFR TAF set. Only wrinkle are some high- based SHRA showing up on KMPX radar which could produce a sprinkle or two at several TAF sites early on in this set. Little to no impact and very short-duration so have opted to go the VCSH route for a couple hours for STC-MSP and the WI TAF sites. Some MVFR ceilings are possible early on, then all sites go VFR overnight with diminishing mid-level cloud cover. Mid- to-upper level clouds return tomorrow despite the dry forecast, but the upper level clouds are likely to be from passing smoke aloft. Generally westerly winds, varying from NW to SW then back to NW over the course of this duration with speeds 5-15kts. KMSP...A few sprinkles possible early on, nothing significant. Then partial clearing this evening through tomorrow with elevated high clouds/smoke expected. Breezy/gusty winds this evening will settle down to 7-10kts later this evening through tomorrow as directions shift from NW to SW. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...Mainly VFR. Chc RA/TSRA/MVFR late. Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...Mainly VFR. RA/TSRA/MVFR likely late, chc IFR. Wind E 10 kts. FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR. Wind E 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BED AVIATION...JPC