205
FXUS63 KGRR 231952
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
252 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain chances Wed night-Thu morning

- Confidence increasing for a quick round of freezing rain early Fri

- Colder with Lake Effect snow showers late Sun-Mon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Light rain chances Wed night-Thu morning

Some bonus late December sunshine and mild temperatures this
afternoon across the entire area. A warm front pushed through earlier
this morning, and all of the lower clouds were pushed out by the SW
flow. The associated cold front with this system has moved over Lake
Michigan, and will press through the area this evening. The air
behind this system is not all that much colder, but we will not see
temperatures approaching 50F either. It does look like we will see
at least some sunshine again on Wednesday.

We see the next system in the sequence approach the area centered
around Wednesday night. This system is actually associated with the
southern jet stream, so no real cold air associated with it. We are
on the northern fringe of it. The main feature associated with this
is a brief surge of low level moisture below 8-10k ft. It is almost
not deep enough for any appreciable precipitation. It may turn out
to be more drizzle than anything else. Sfc temps are expected to be
mostly above freezing where it occurs (SW half of forecast area),
but can not rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle where sfc
temps may be right around freezing.

This will then move out quickly by Thursday(Christmas Morning) as
the low moves away and a dry low level flow sets up quickly ahead of
the incoming ridge. It is looking like we will maybe see a little
bit of sunshine once again after the system moves by, and before the
next system moves in Thursday night.

- Confidence increasing for a quick round of freezing rain early Fri

Most of the models and their ensemble means continue with
advertising a round of mainly freezing rain early Friday morning,
gradually turning to rain by mid-Friday afternoon. We see almost
some phasing of the northern and southern jet streams with a couple
of waves approaching the area. There is some very warm air aloft
coming in with +8C or so coming in at 850 mb. At the same time, the
low level cool and dry air continues to feed in at the sfc.

The majority of the deterministic models and the ensemble means
point toward a brief, but impactful event Friday morning with around
a tenth of an inch of ice likely. The highest amounts are further
north and east, with less further south and west toward Lake
Michigan.

The vast majority of solutions show the sfc low tracking along far
southern Lower Michigan, with the warmer air coming in closer as the
flow eventually becomes from the SSE. There are some isolated
solutions that take the low closer toward the Ohio River Valley, and
have the heaviest freezing rain over the SW corner of the area, and
heavy amounts of ice. The most likely scenario is that we see the
tenth of an inch of ice over the NE, but will be watching future
trends to see if there is any shift toward the colder outlier
solution. We have started messaging this with it falling during the
Holiday travel period.

- Colder with Lake Effect snow showers late Sun-Mon

Overall the past few days, we have seen a trend in the stronger
system expected to come in this weekend and bring winter back to be
delayed a bit.

The strong upper wave responsible for this has been a bit stronger,
and thus slowing down the transition a bit. This has allowed for a
short wave ahead of the main trough to lift NE ahead of it, and
bring another round of rain to the area before the colder air comes
in. This looks to come in overnight Saturday night and Sunday
morning. We have plenty of mild air left over the area, and
additional warm air being advecting ahead of the low.

Once the leading short wave and sfc low move by, the strong upper
wave dives down over the area by Sunday evening. The upper jet core
does not pass overhead until later Sunday afternoon. That is when we
should see lake effect snow showers develop, with Sunday night
seeing the best conditions for accumulating snow in the NW flow
favored areas.

This does not look to be an extended event as the upper trough is
progressive in nature, and the jet core moves away from the area
from later Monday afternoon. The deep cold air pool will also move
east, and leave the area with cool conditions and non-significant
lake effect that will diminish before the next stronger system moves
in after this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR is forecast for this TAF period with some high clouds over the
area today and sustained winds hovering around 10 kts. Some cloud
cover could move conditions to MVFR starting in the 09z-12z time
frame. A consensus of model guidance keeps conditions above IFR
Wednesday morning, though a few individual models try to bring
cloud cover just below 1000 ft. Not favoring those solutions at
this point with lowering dew points overnight and guidance such as
the RAP showing 975mb-925mb RH values not supportive of low
clouds.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Hoving