974 FXUS63 KDTX 151645 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming temperatures and dry into early next week. - Showers and strong thunderstorms return for the mid week period. && .AVIATION... Light northeast winds this afternoon with mid clouds over northern sites dissipating toward evening. Mostly clear skies tonight into Monday. However, low level winds shifting to the east-southeast will attempt to usher in some low level moisture currently over the Eastern Great Lakes. There is a low chance for high MVFR/low VFR cloud deck developing Monday morning, mainly over southern the taf sites. For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF period. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 355 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 DISCUSSION... Quiet close to the weekend with stable conditions in place from high pressure tracking across the region. Southeast MI remains on the southern end of the anticylonic lower level flow resulting in east to northeast winds through today. Temperatures of 11C to 12C at 850mb with a more sun today should yield daytime high temperatures to around 80 degrees. The onshore flow will keep lakeshore locations a few degrees cooler. Tonight into tomorrow will see PacNW shortwave energy work around the upper ridge extending into the northern plains while flattening it to some degree. At the same time, weak mid-level troughing develops across the mid Mississippi River Valley and east of the broader trough. The main downstream consequence locally for Monday will be warm, moist advection and will help increase daytime highs into the low to mid 80s with continued dry conditions. Deeper southwest flow kicks in Tuesday and continues the warming trend as daytime highs approach 90 in some locations. It will also mark the beginning of a stretch that is littered with PoPs from Tuesday through Thursday. Much of Tuesday may end up mostly dry as southeast Michigan resides between the better frontal forcing across the Ohio Valley and a mid-level wave and associated front moving across the northern Great Lakes. The increase in moisture and proximity to forcing warrants at least lower end PoPs. Greatest rain and thunderstorm potential will be Wednesday into Wednesday night as southern and northern stream energy attempt to interact and a surface wave develops along a boundary laid out across central/northern Lower Michigan. PWATs will increase to greater than 1.75 inches, which brings potential for locally heavy rainfall. Increased instability and shear will also provide an environment capable of organized convection. However, being this far out there is still variance in models with plenty of details to hash out in regards to timing and placement of features with upcoming forecast. The trailing mid-upper level wave will be responsible for the continued chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. MARINE... High pressure over eastern Canada maintains favorable marine weather today with light northeast wind and dry conditions. Wind funneling effects bring a local increase in wind speed to around 15 to 20 kt over Saginaw Bay this afternoon. As the high pressure drifts over the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, flow over the central Great Lakes gains a southerly component which allows a warmer and more unstable air mass to build in. A warm front brings the next chance for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, and unsettled conditions are likely to continue through the rest of the week as several disturbances move through the region. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...AA MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.