513 FXUS63 KDTX 020959 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 559 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A notable warm up is expected through middle parts of the week. By Tuesday, temperatures warm into the mid/upper 80s. These warm temperatures than return on Wednesday across far southeast portions of Michigan. Heat indices may approach 90 degrees in a few spots. - Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Wednesday through the end of the week, as a very slow moving frontal boundary lingers over southeast Michigan. && .AVIATION... Clear to mostly clear skies today into tonight, despite light southwest winds developing today. High clouds should be on the increase tonight as moisture axis spreads into the Western Great Lakes. For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through Monday night. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 DISCUSSION... Sizable warming trend in store for the early week period. Initial stages of a robust period of warm air advection underway early this morning, driven by emerging low level southwest flow within the backside of departing surface ridging. Noted 24 hour increase of roughly 6-7 degrees of 850 mb temperatures by this afternoon, affording rapid diurnal temperature recovery within the backdrop of high insolation potential. Highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees on target. Mild conditions expected tonight, solidified by the arrival of high amplitude upper ridging. Lows mainly in the 60s. Improvement in mean thicknesses while southwest flow attains greater depth with the upper ridge easing eastward brings another upward adjustment in temperatures Tuesday. Given 850 mb temperatures of mid teens, this will support highs well into the middle and upper 80s. Deep layer stability with no tangible forced ascent or meaningful moisture quality ensures dry conditions hold this period. Period of filtered sunshine at times as elevated levels of smoke aloft from ongoing Canadian wildfires funnel through. Corridor of modest height falls arrive during the midweek period, driven by a steady stream of shortwave energy ejecting northeast within broad mid level southwest flow. This process will ease an attendant frontal boundary across southeast Michigan Wednesday and Wed night. Sufficient forced ascent anchored to the inbound convergence axis and mid level pv feature(s) will maintain a high likelihood of shower and thunderstorm production this period. Frontal timing suggests a late day arrival for at least eastern sections, offering a greater window to capitalize on daytime destabilization as temps again project to push mid-upper 80s and dewpoints peak in the mid 60s. Potential for organized convective development will exist within the background of a strengthening deep layer wind field. Slow forward motion of the frontal zone also lends to a locally heavy rainfall threat. Forecast detail carries less clarity within the Thu-Fri window, owing to differences in handling the behavior of a closed low now organizing off the coast of California. Faster ejection of the wave, as advertised by a subset of the model solution space, affords a secondary meaningful response along the aforementioned frontal zone still parked over or just south of the area on Thursday. Solutions offering a slower ejection favors a drier outcome Thursday as the boundary sags south and clears the area, with a focus on the Friday period for greater convective chances with the trailing wave arrival. Outgoing forecast continues to highlight a broader precip mention across this entire period as offered by NBM output at this stage. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels to finish the week. MARINE... High pressure centered over the the Ohio Valley will provide favorable marine conditions to start the week. The high will drift eastward through to the Atlantic Coast tonight which will set up a southwesterly wind today ahead of the next cold front draped over the Midwest. Southwest winds will gust to around 25 knots on Tuesday with the tightening gradient ahead of the front which may necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for a portion of Lake Huron. The cold front will sweep through the region on Wednesday bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SF DISCUSSION...MR MARINE.......DRK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.