513
FXUS63 KDTX 020959
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
559 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A notable warm up is expected through middle parts of the week. By
Tuesday, temperatures warm into the mid/upper 80s. These warm
temperatures than return on Wednesday across far southeast portions
of Michigan. Heat indices may approach 90 degrees in a few spots.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Wednesday
through the end of the week, as a very slow moving frontal boundary
lingers over southeast Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION...

Clear to mostly clear skies today into tonight, despite light
southwest winds developing today. High clouds should be on the
increase tonight as moisture axis spreads into the Western Great
Lakes.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through Monday
night.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

DISCUSSION...

Sizable warming trend in store for the early week period. Initial
stages of a robust period of warm air advection underway early this
morning, driven by emerging low level southwest flow within the
backside of departing surface ridging. Noted 24 hour increase of
roughly 6-7 degrees of 850 mb temperatures by this afternoon,
affording rapid diurnal temperature recovery within the backdrop of
high insolation potential. Highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees on
target. Mild conditions expected tonight, solidified by the arrival
of high amplitude upper ridging. Lows mainly in the 60s. Improvement
in mean thicknesses while southwest flow attains greater depth with
the upper ridge easing eastward brings another upward adjustment in
temperatures Tuesday. Given 850 mb temperatures of mid teens, this
will support highs well into the middle and upper 80s. Deep layer
stability with no tangible forced ascent or meaningful moisture
quality ensures dry conditions hold this period. Period of filtered
sunshine at times as elevated levels of smoke aloft from ongoing
Canadian wildfires funnel through.

Corridor of modest height falls arrive during the midweek period,
driven by a steady stream of shortwave energy ejecting northeast
within broad mid level southwest flow. This process will ease an
attendant frontal boundary across southeast Michigan Wednesday and
Wed night. Sufficient forced ascent anchored to the inbound
convergence axis and mid level pv feature(s) will maintain a high
likelihood of shower and thunderstorm production this period.
Frontal timing suggests a late day arrival for at least eastern
sections, offering a greater window to capitalize on daytime
destabilization as temps again project to push mid-upper 80s and
dewpoints peak in the mid 60s. Potential for organized convective
development will exist within the background of a strengthening deep
layer wind field. Slow forward motion of the frontal zone also lends
to a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Forecast detail carries less clarity within the Thu-Fri window,
owing to differences in handling the behavior of a closed low now
organizing off the coast of California. Faster ejection of the wave,
as advertised by a subset of the model solution space, affords a
secondary meaningful response along the aforementioned frontal zone
still parked over or just south of the area on Thursday. Solutions
offering a slower ejection favors a drier outcome Thursday as the
boundary sags south and clears the area, with a focus on the Friday
period for greater convective chances with the trailing wave
arrival. Outgoing forecast continues to highlight a broader precip
mention across this entire period as offered by NBM output at this
stage. Temperatures return to more seasonable levels to finish the
week.

MARINE...

High pressure centered over the the Ohio Valley will provide
favorable marine conditions to start the week. The high will drift
eastward through to the Atlantic Coast tonight which will set up a
southwesterly wind today ahead of the next cold front draped over
the Midwest. Southwest winds will gust to around 25 knots on Tuesday
with the tightening gradient ahead of the front which may
necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for a portion of Lake Huron. The
cold front will sweep through the region on Wednesday bringing the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SF
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......DRK

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