152 FXUS63 KDTX 121040 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers slide across areas north of I-69 this morning. An isolated thunderstorm is possible this evening west of US-23. - Cooler with periods of showers and storms Thursday through the weekend. && .AVIATION... Jet entrance region driven 850-700mb fgen has resulted in a corridor of high based shower activity early this morning. Dry air in the lower troposphere brings a high likelihood for VFR conditions today and tonight. Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain across southwest Lower Michigan along a stalled frontal boundary. Winds are expected to be out of the north or northeast leading to northeast flow operations at times. For DTW/D21 Convection...There is a low chance <20 percent for isolated convection across the airspace today. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms Thursday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 DISCUSSION... Advertised cold front is in the process of gradually sagging south through southern lower MI early this morning with little fanfare thus far overnight. This is changing around discussion time as a PV anomaly coming out of the northern Plains slides along the boundary into SE MI. Remnant convection associated with this wave works across the northern portions of the CWA (north of I-69) through the remainder of the morning. With the arrival window falling in the diurnal minima of instability, little to no thunder chances are expected from these showers. Wave kicks east of the region by afternoon tapering off any lingering light showers. Frontal boundary stalls near the state border setting up an instability gradient across the far southernmost portions of the state (especially SW lower) by late afternoon-evening. The majority of the CAMs attempt to initiate convection along this feature by early evening, though to differing degrees ranging from only a couple isolated cells confined to our west (ie 00Z ARW) to a scattered storms that drift into southwestern CWA counties given the still west-southwest low- mid level wind field (ie 00Z HRRR). Without a strong forcing mechanism, overall confidence remains relatively low so have maintained the running 20-25% PoPs. Another northern Plains shortwave arrives over the northern Great Lakes Friday partially lifting the stalled front back north over the course of the day. Better rain chances still looking to occur on the elevated portion of the front over northern lower MI given the placement of the parent wave leading to limited rain chances locally, focused over the northern half of the area. Closed mid- level low lifting out of the southern Plains begins to phase with the northern wave late Friday-Saturday offering the best chances for scattered to numerous showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm near the state border, for the southern half of SE MI. This mid-level trough begins to sink back southeast by Sunday pulling associated shower activity just south of the area over Ohio. While a stray shower or two could lift north of the state line, the majority of the area sees a return of dry weather as weak surface high pressure builds in from the north. MARINE... A frontal boundary settles into the southern Great Lakes today as high pressure builds across Ontario. The weak gradient associated with this high maintains light winds predominantly out of the north. Diurnal wind enhancement will occur over Saginaw Bay this afternoon where northeast flow briefly increases to around 20 kt. The high shifts east toward Quebec on Friday with northeast wind increasing to the 15 to 20 kt range over all of Lake Huron. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread across the lakes Friday into Saturday but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. High pressure builds directly across the lakes on Sunday to bring a drier end to the weekend. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...KDK MARINE.......TF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.