708
FXUS63 KDTX 281856
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple
days.

- Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper-level northwest confluent flow will support subsidence and a
drying trend through tomorrow. Low clouds should dissipate by early
evening, and it appears that surface dew pts will lower enough to
help mitigate fog potential tonight. An upper-level ridge axis
extending north into central Canada will fold over and arrive over
the central Great Lakes Thursday evening into Thursday night.

The forecast then gets complicated Friday and into the Weekend.
There is a series over upper-level disturbances that will
consolidate over the Northern Plains. How much amplification takes
place varies amongst the medium-range models. Deeper and faster
amplification would support a deepening 500 MB trough/low developing
over Iowa/southern Minnesota on Friday and diving southeast Friday
night, shifting the bulk of showers into the Western Ohio Valley.
Southeast Michigan has better shot at precipitation with the weak
cold front dropping south from the northern Great Lakes during the
second half of the weekend. Either way, NBM pops are currently
running around 30-50 percent. Modest instability supports, at best,
just a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Temperatures through forecast period look to remain around normal,
not deviating much more than +/- 5 degrees. Friday looks to feature
the warmest max temperatures, per Euro ensembles, reaching the upper
80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...

There will be continued gusty conditions for the rest of the evening
into Wednesday, which will maintain the issued Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements across Lake Huron. Winds of
up to 25 kt are expected. These winds will calm down by Thursday
into the end of the week as high pressure enters the region. Dry
conditions are expected until we see our next chance of showers
heading into this weekend as a cold front moves into the Great
Lakes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

AVIATION...

Post frontal MVFR cloud shield - with some embedded drizzle and
sprinkles - is slowly showing signs of thinning. However, upstream
near surface drying is lagging some - thus slowing the dissipation
process. Along the southern periphery over the Detroit airspace,
continued cumulus formation within the moisture rich boundary layer
will supplement the pre-existing clouds.  The presence of the clouds
has discouraged mixing north of Detroit, and gusts to 20-kts are now
just emerging along the cloud edge.  Looking for the main cloud
field to continue shrinking from the edges, then eventually within
the developing leads - but still has several hours to go.  The rest
of the forecast period will be rather quiet.  A modest north flow
with daytime gusts to 20-kts is expected again on Wednesday.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms through Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings 5000 feet or less this afternoon. Low by this
  evening.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ049-055-
     063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......TO/TF
AVIATION.....Mann


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