163 FXUS63 KDTX 081854 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 254 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday. A few stronger storms cannot be ruled out on Monday afternoon and evening, with marginally severe hail and gusty winds. - Near normal temperatures prevail this week. && .DISCUSSION... Still under the influence of the departing area of high pressure, winds have been light throughout the day. A broken line of showers and storms along a cold front moving across eastern Wisconsin is progged to continue to move east towards the area later this evening and into the overnight hours. Did increase PoPs and tried to refine the timing of this activity into the area. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder overnight, but instability really wanes as we lose daytime heating this evening so do not expected any severe weather tonight. By Monday morning, the cold front exits east of the area. Behind the front, gradient winds from the southwest increase during the afternoon as daytime heating and mixing increase. Wind gusts are forecast to top out around 20-25 mph. A few lingering showers are possible Monday morning, mainly across the Thumb and down into far southeast portions of the area. The focus then turns to Monday afternoon and evening as the main upper-level low ushers in cooler air aloft and increased chances for widely scattered showers and a few storms Monday. The combo of daytime heating and steeper lapse rates aloft are progged to result in around 500-800 J/kg of MUCAPE, this coupled with 40+ kt of effective shear should be enough to highlight some concerns for a few stronger storms. With about half (or more at times) of the MUCAPE focused in the hail growth region and strong effective shear, marginally severe hail will be possible with stronger updrafts. Given the increased momentum aloft, stronger storms may be capable of produce 40+ mph winds. Monday night we gradually lose any lingering showers and storms late in the evening as we lose daytime heating. Additional showers linger on Tuesday as another lobe of vorticity embedded within the upper- level low rotates down across the area. By Wednesday, the pesky upper low exits the area. We then find ourselves under broad west- northwest flow aloft and a slow-moving front upstream of the area. With a number of shortwaves progged to dig across the Upper Great Lakes region, it does look like this frontal boundary gets active mid to late week. Still a lot of uncertainty in how the forecast evolves, specifically where any organized convection focus, but certainly a period of time to keep an eye on. && .MARINE... An unsettled stretch of weather is expected for the Great Lakes this forecast period. This stretch begins with a band of showers and possible thunder this evening-overnight as a pre-frontal trough tracks across the area. Winds currently out of the east-southeast will veer to the southwest in the wake of the trough, but remain light. An upper low then fills for Monday and Tuesday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly tied to peak heating in the afternoon-evening. Severe weather is not anticipated, but locally elevated winds/waves, lightning, small hail, and heavy rain are all possible. Southwest flow will enhance winds and waves for Saginaw Bay on Wednesday, which may necessitate Small Craft Advisories although other marine zones look to stay headline-free through the week. Still, there is potential for additional systems to glance across the area which maintains shower and thunderstorm chances for most of the work week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 104 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 AVIATION... A lingering mid cloud deck associated with a departing mid level short wave will slowly diminish during the course of the afternoon. Overall, lingering dry low level air and a weak gradient will support VFR conditions through the afternoon. There is the chance for some late afternoon/evening convection from KFNT to KMBS and points west where diurnal heating/instability will be greater. The chances for thunderstorms at this point remains low given uncertainty in the degree of late day destabilization. Larger scale ascent associated with the lead edge of an upper low will also increase in this area late in the evening. This larger scale ascent, combined with a narrow axis of deeper moisture will then gradually overspread the forecast area during the overnight. Instability will be weak, however a chance of showers seems warranted given the ascent. For DTW/D21 Convection...A scattered to broken line of showers is forecast to move across the metro airspace overnight through early Monday morning. There is low chance for some embedded thunderstorms within these showers. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low in thunderstorms tonight. * Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet overnight. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JA MARINE.......MV AVIATION.....SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.