301 FXUS63 KDTX 130340 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1140 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler with periods of showers Thursday through Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. - Warmer temperatures on the way to start the new week with 80s on Sunday and mid to upper 80s Monday through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Southeast Michigan will remain located between an elevated frontal boundary across the northern Great Lakes and a broad low pressure system and moisture plume from Missouri across the Ohio Valley through the day Friday. This will essentially sustain limited large scale forcing across the southeast terminals. The northern edge of an elevated instability axis lifted across SW Lower Mi late this evening, igniting a line of convection. The elevated instability is forecast to weaken during the overnight, limiting the chances for any convection at the Se Mi terminals. Light east-northeast winds associated with high pressure centered north of Lake Huron will maintain enough dry air in the low levels to sustain VFR conditions through Friday afternoon. For DTW/D21 Convection...An isolated thunderstorm remains possible late tonight through Friday morning, mainly across the western portions of the airspace. THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for thunderstorms tonight and Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025 DISCUSSION... A cold front has pushed through the region with surface ridging building into the area southward out of Ontario. The easterly flow bringing a steady feed of dry air into the region which helped keep early day showers to a minimum as the 700mb fgen band weakened, resulting in a dry day for most of the area. For tonight, the activated elevated portion of the front resides well to our north over northern lower with a cutoff upper low over the southern Plains lifting up toward the region so really no forcing to help develop any showers locally. A ripple in the surface front over SW lower may produce some showers or even a thunderstorm this evening with some CAMs advertising them to drift eastward toward the US23 corridor. Low confidence in much coverage with this so will keep a isolated pop mention for the far west. Question then becomes how much elevated forcing can emanate away from the upper low as it lifts into the area Friday and Friday night to bring rain chances to southern lower...while a shearing out shortwave ripples through northern lower at the same time? We`ll have some mention of pops for the far north and south while locations around M59 to I69 stand the best chance of staying dry through the stretch. Hard to find much of any instability in the models so we`ll hold thunder out while mentioning showers possible. Friday night into Saturday offers a chance of rain across the far SE as the deformation axis of the upper low will be slow to exit completely keeping some rain chances for a portion of the area. High pressure then builds in from the north behind the exiting system bringing drier conditions across lower MI Saturday into Sunday. Ridge builds across the Plains to start the week with attempts to build east into the Great Lakes. Several weak upper level waves passing mainly north of the area will attempt to flatten the ridge but overall it looks like warmer temps are on the way with mid to upper 80s for the first half of the week at least. MARINE... The frontal boundary will continue to settle over the southern Great Lakes region this afternoon maintaining northeasterly flow with lighter winds. Overnight and into Friday, weak high pressure will continue to move eastward from Ontario into Quebec, while the frontal boundary remains stalled across the south. Northeast winds on Friday will increase into the 15 to 20 kt range across Lake Huron, with 25 kt gusts possible across the Saginaw Bay. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread across the region Friday into Saturday, with severe weather not anticipated at this time. High pressure then builds back in on Sunday, which will bring drier conditions and light winds. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......SS You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.