363
FXUS61 KBOX 051950
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
350 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Higher than normal heat and humidity expected Sunday and
Monday with a Heat Advisory in place. Unsettled weather makes a
return Monday night, continuing off and on through much of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

Quiet conditions expected tonight with mainly high clouds. More
cloud cover around should limit radiational cooling keeping
temperatures warmer overnight in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Hotter with increasing humidity.

* Heat Advisory in effect

Sunday:

A mid-level ridge stays positioned over southern New England
Sunday with increased SW flow aloft. Temperatures aloft will warm
from Saturday supporting a much warmer day Sunday. Highs should
range in the upper 80s to low 90s in most spots and a little cooler
in the 80s for the Cape and Islands and immediate south coast. SW
flow will help advect in higher moisture area into the region which
will result in higher humidity values. This will make it feel hotter
(90-96 degrees) in those hotter areas away from the south coast and
Cape/Islands. A Heat Advisory will be in effect starting Sunday to
cover the hotter and more humid weather through the day Monday.

Model soundings show a mixed boundary layer by the afternoon which
will bring down the breezier SW winds to the surface with gusts 20-
25 mph.

Sunday Night:

Dry and mild Sunday night. Low temperatures stay in the upper 60s to
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Key Messages...

* Peak of the heat and humidity Monday.

* Periodic chances of unsettled weather late Monday through next
  week.

The mid level flow amplifies early next week. The peak of the heat
and humidity is expected Monday. An approaching cold front
late Monday into Tuesday should lead to another opportunity of
showers and possible thunderstorms. This front may linger nearby
even into Wednesday before a high pressure over Canada pushes it
farther south for Thursday. This front should not go far Friday
into Saturday.

While it will not be raining this entire time, we do seem to be
heading into a prolonged period of rainfall chances from showers and
thunderstorms. The most likely periods would be the typical
afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures expected to trend near to slightly below normal
Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

This Afternoon...High confidence.

VFR. SW-SSW winds 8 to 12 knots. Sea breeze for south coast
(PVD). Low chance for a sea breeze to develop at BOS this
afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Any sea breezes turn back SSW early evening. SSW winds 5-10
kts. Less than 8 kts for the interior. Low level moisture may lead
to a FEW or SCT group of IFR clouds across southern RI and SE
MA overnight.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. SSW to SW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots
developing by early afternoon.


KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Sea breeze
potential.

VFR. Potential for a sea breeze is looking less likely this
afternoon given better mixed SW winds.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR
possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night: High confidence.

SW winds around 10-15 kt tonight. Seas 4 ft or less all waters,
and around 1-2 ft nearshore. No obstructions to visibility
expected. SW winds increase on Sunday, gusting 20-25 kts, as
high as 30 kts on eastern waters. Seas 3-5 ft. Most zones will
stay shy of SCA criteria except the northern outer waters with
gusts 25-30 kts in the afternoon and sea 4-5 ft. SCA will be in
effect for that zone from 18z Sun through 06z Mon.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     MAZ003>007-010>019-026.
RI...Heat Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for
     RIZ001>004.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ250.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Mensch
NEAR TERM...Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Mensch
MARINE...Belk/Mensch