626 FXUS61 KBOX 091746 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 146 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Not as hot in southern New England today, those in far northeast Massachusetts will have the most relief, while the lower Connecticut River Valley remain warm. Temperatures will continue to trend cooler on Thursday, before rebounding Friday through the upcoming weekend. As we enter a summery pattern, a daily chance for showers and storms remain a possibility today through Friday, with signs of drier conditions for the upcoming weekend, then followed by more unsettled conditions early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Key Messages: * Scattered showers particularly through mid-late morning north of the MA/CT/RI borders * Cooler across eastern and northeastern Massachusetts, though still seasonably warm across interior southern New England. * A few isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. Cluster of showers will impact many locations through mid-late morning with the bulk of these north of the MA/CT/RI borders with an abundance of moisture and some shortwave energy too. This afternoon it`s noticeably cooler across northeast Massachusetts, where highs struggle to hit the middle and upper 70s, this including Boston. Moving inland and westward, away influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, highs are seasonable reaching the lower 80s, while the Connecticut River Valley stands the greatest chance of reaching the upper 80s. Have opportunities for storms today, though not to the extent experienced overnight. Forcing isn`t great, weak surface low and a mid-level shortwave might be enough to pop isolated thunderstorms. In addition, PWATs are still elevated, 1.8" to 2.0", thus any storms could put down torrential downpours. Do have a marginal risk of excessive rain, per WPC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Tonight: Unsettled conditions remain overnight, scattered showers and thunder. Mainly cloudy skies will lead to a mild night with lows in the middle to upper 60s, while urban areas hold steady around 70F. Thursday: A quasi-stationary front settles over southern New England and will be a source for showers and storms during the day. Timing is early to mid-afternoon through the early evening hours, though there is lower confidence in exact location of these storms given the convective nature. SPC does have a Marginal Risk for severe storms, but it was mentioned in their discussion, if confidence were to increase in the areal coverage, part of the northeast could be upgraded to a slight risk. Area at the greatest risk are western areas of MA & CT, where daytime heating will be more robust, getting into the low 80s, while eastern areas are in the low to middle 70s due to the easterly flow off the cooler ocean. Also, there is still a low risk for excessive rainfall per the WPC ERO, which kept the region under a marginal risk ~ PWATs are roughly 1.5" to 2.0" thus any storms could put down torrential downpours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern into Friday. Still a risk for some showers and thunderstorms Friday. It`s likely Saturday is the day which features the lowest chance for showers. Even Sunday should be dry most of the time, with the risk for some showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Have low confidence in the forecast details early next week. Too much uncertainty with the timing of potential showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18z TAF Update... Rest of Today...Moderate to high confidence. Some areas across the interior have seen some improvement to MVFR and even VFR conditions. There`s a chance some eastern terminals might see some improvement to MVFR as well before sunset. An isolated t-storm or scattered shower remains possible this afternoon. Winds remain light and primarily from the NE aside from parts of the immediate south coast which will continue to see light SW winds. Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. The cooling boundary layer will result in conditions lowering to mainly IFR/LIFR levels in most locations...but perhaps some lower end MVFR conditions much of the night across the distant interior. A cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms containing locally heavy rainfall will also be possible tonight, especially after 08z. Winds becoming calm in some areas. Thursday...Moderate confidence. MVFR to IFR conditions. More -SHRA and TSRA possible in the morning hours, becoming more isolated as the day goes on. E to ENE wind 5 to 10 knots. KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in timing. Possible improvement this afternoon to MVFR briefly before becoming IFR to LIFR tonight after sunset. SHRA timing may start earlier than 14z, but no earlier than 10z. KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Chance for spot shower this evening. Higher confidence in improvement to VFR this afternoon based on latest satellite imagery. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Saturday through Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and Tonight: Moderate confidence. Winds 5-10 kts out of the SW on the southern waters and out of the NE on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft. Thursday: Moderate confidence. Winds 10-15 kts out of the SSE on the southern waters and out of the E to ESE on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft. Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/... Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Friday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley NEAR TERM...Dooley SHORT TERM...Dooley LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Frank/Dooley/Hrencecin MARINE...Dooley