542 FXUS61 KBOX 061750 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 150 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Higher than normal heat and humidity expected today and Monday with a Heat Advisory in place. Unsettled weather makes a return Monday into Monday night, continuing off and on through much of next week. Cooler weather expected middle to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... * Hotter today with more humidity. Mid level heights rise initially today as the 500 mb ridge axis shifts east across New England. This begins to turn the low/mid level flow out of the SW while at the surface warm, moist flow is already in place. This will further pump up the heat and humidity today, pushing high temperatures into the mid 90s (80s closer to the south coast). Dewpoints rising from the 50s into the upper 60s will make it feel much more humid today as well. This heat continues into Monday, so a Heat Advisory is in effect for the extended period of abnormally warm and humid conditions. The one factor working to make it feel a bit better will be the increasingly gusty winds as we are sandwiched between low pressure over the Great Lakes and high pressure over the Atlantic. Winds gusts up to 20-25 mph are expected. Sun will be filtered by high clouds early on, though they will diminish through the day. Tonight, dry and mild conditions expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Key Messages... * Heat and humidity peaks. * Shower and thunderstorm chances increase. Zonal flow to start the week becomes a bit more amplified as we move further into the weak, with late Monday being a transition from the heat and humidity of the late weekend back into unsettled weather. One last day of abnormally hot temperatures for Monday before an increase in cloudcover and rain chances leads to a cooler day on Tuesday. Mostly dry with increasing cloudcover, but guidance has been quicker to bring in rain and thunderstorm chances ahead of an approaching cold front, as early as Monday afternoon. EPS ensembles have increased probabilities of measurable rain quite a bit on Monday while GEFS also indicates a >50% chance in the interior. Expect that any thunderstorms will be garden variety (sub severe), lacking any bulk shear and with poor mid level lapse rates. Moisture will be abundant, though, with 70s dewpoints sticking around and PWATs near 2 inches. Any storms may contain heavy downpours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Messages... * Periodic chances of unsettled weather each day. * Seasonable to even slightly cooler than average temps by late week. A series of shortwaves moves through the largely zonal flow through the end of the week while Monday night`s cold front stalls around the coastal plain Tuesday night and moves offshore by Thursday. This will provide a source of lift in addition to the mid level shortwave moving through Tue into Wednesday. Details are sparse but thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible on Tuesday into early Wednesday followed by another shortwave Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z update... This Afternoon...High confidence. VFR. SSW to SW winds 10 to 15 knots. Gusting 20 to 25 knots. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR early evening. Areas of MVFR/IFR develop mainly south of I-90 mainly after 05z. Patchy fog develops across the south coast. Gusty winds gradually decrease between 23-03z. SSW to SW winds at 8-14 kts tonight, less than 10 kts for the interior terminals. Monday...Moderate confidence. MVFR to IFR along the south coast of RI and MA in the AM. South coast may scatter after 12z. Confidence is moderate in whether it scatters or stays BKN. Cape/Islands slower to improve in the AM gradually improving into the early afternoon. SSW to SW winds 10-15 kts, gusts 20-24 kts by early afternoon. Isolated showers and few thunderstorms develop after 16z in western CT and MA. Notated as PROB30 -TSRA for now. There is a low chance (< 30%) that a stray shower/storm makes it further east, but too low to include in TAF right now. KBOS Terminal...High confidence this afternoon. Moderate Monday. VFR with gusty SSW to SW wind with gusts 20 to 25 knots this afternoon decreasing after 23z. Low clouds develop to the south overnight, but are unlikely to reach terminal. BKN mid-level ceilings Monday with SW winds with gusts around 20 kts in the afternoon. Low chance an isolated shower/storm makes it east to to BOS after 18z. Not high enough to include in TAF at this time. KBDL Terminal...High confidence. Moderate Monday. Forecast confidence is moderate beyond 10z Monday with the potential for lower ceilings. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible after 16z. Low chance given isolated nature, so included as a PROB30 -TSRA through 23z. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA, patchy BR. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through tonight: High confidence. SW winds increase today, gusting 20-25 kts, as high as 30 kts on eastern waters. Seas 3-5 ft. Most zones will stay shy of SCA criteria except the northern outer waters with gusts 25-30 kts in the afternoon and sea 4-5 ft. SCA will be in effect for that zone from 18z today through 06z Mon. Monday: High confidence. SW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts on southern waters, 25-30 kts on the eastern waters. Seas 2-3 ft, increasing to 2-4 ft on the outer waters late in the day. Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/... Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm. Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility 1 to 3 nm. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for MAZ003>007-010>019-026. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for RIZ001>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ250. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BW NEAR TERM...BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...BW/Dooley/Mensch MARINE...BW