325 FXUS61 KALY 250620 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 220 AM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move southward across the region today, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. It will remain hot and humid until the front passes, with slightly cooler and less humid conditions following in the wake of the front for tonight into Saturday along with fair weather. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday as a warm front approaches from the southwest. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 AM EDT, isolated showers ahead of remnant outflow boundary from earlier convection currently across the northern Adirondacks into western NY. We expect some of these showers to reach the southern Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley toward daybreak. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, especially across the southern Adirondacks. Main cold front was still located farther north and west across northern lower Michigan into southeast Ontario. The aforementioned outflow boundary looks to serve as a prefrontal trough and future focus for convection later this morning into this afternoon as it continues tracking east/southeast. Areas north of I-90 will have the best chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through late this morning associated with this trough. Areas along and especially south of I-90 will have better chances of scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, with potential for stronger/isolated severe storms mainly south/east of Albany across the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and southern Berkshires where some overlap of stronger 0-6 km shear (30-40 KT) and MU CAPES of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected. However, overall coverage looks to be limited by meager mid level lapse rates with warm mid level temps. Isolated damaging winds would be the greatest severe threat, particularly within any small clusters with bowing segments that develop in these areas. Otherwise, remaining warm/hot and humid, with high temps reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s in valley areas from Albany south and east. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, max heat indices should reach 95-100 in valley areas from Albany south, as well as across Litchfield County. These areas have been included in a heat advisory from 11 AM until 8 PM today, though may be dropped a bit earlier if convection and/or the front passes sooner. A few lingering showers/thunderstorms may occur with the actual cold front this afternoon across the upper Hudson Valley and Capital Region, otherwise gradual clearing is expected tonight with some patchy fog developing. Decent radiational cooling across the southern Adirondacks with PWAT`s dropping to 0.50-0.80", clearing skies and light winds should allow min temps to drop into the 40s across portions of the SW Adirondacks, with 50s to lower/mid 60s elsewhere. Fair weather for Saturday with warm temperatures and lower humidity levels. Highs reaching the 80s for most areas with dewpoints dropping into the 50s in the afternoon, with even some 40s possible across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley. Frontal boundary to our south lifts back northward late Saturday night into Sunday along with a weak wave of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms look to track into the western Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak Sunday, with showers/thunderstorms then spreading eastward and affecting most areas Sunday morning, especially along and south of I-90. Some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Showers may taper off by late Sunday, especially north of I-90 and west of I-87. Highs Sunday mainly in the 70s to lower 80s, though could be cooler should showers linger throughout the afternoon. Hot and humid weather returns early next week along with some passing showers/thunderstorms. High temps should reach the lower/mid 90s in valley areas on these days, with heat indices potentially reaching 95-100. A cold front looks to move through Tuesday into Wednesday, which may produce some enhanced opportunities of showers/storms. Cooler/less humid conditions look to return behind this front for later next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... We start the TAF period with VFR conditions at all TAF sites and southwesterly to southerly winds between 5 and 10 knots. Between 15z and 00z, a cold front moves through with low chances (less than 30 percent) for rain showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front which continues to be included in PROB30 groups. As the front moves from north to south, KGFL could see earlier start time for rain showers between 15z and 17z while KPOU is later between 18z and 20z. Conditions could range between low VFR and MVFR with shower activity. Once the front moves through the airfield, VFR conditions return and a wind shift to the west is forecasted. Winds become westerly after the front between 5 and 10 knots before becoming calm for between 01z and 06z. Outlook... Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ001-013. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ052-053-059-060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/Speck DISCUSSION...KL AVIATION...Webb