743 FXUS61 KALY 052315 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 715 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather persists for the remainder of the Holiday Weekend, though high heat and humidity become reintroduced across the region beginning Sunday. Heat indices therefore will be dangerous for some within valley areas tomorrow while such conditions become potentially more widespread for Monday. An active pattern then sets in Monday through the middle of the week with chances for showers and thunderstorms almost daily. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pleasant, early July conditions keep hold of the region this afternoon with high pressure having remained in place. Mid- to upper- level ridging aloft has kept all showers, and most clouds for that matter, at bay as a low pressure system traverses eastern Canada. Large-scale subsidence will continue to keep conditions dry through tonight with low temperatures falling largely to the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message: - Dangerous heat and humidity return Sunday through Monday. - Previous Heat Advisory for Sunday has been expanded to include additional portions of the Hudson and Connecticut River Valleys. Discussion: Though the dominating surface high shifts south and east tonight into tomorrow, the aforementioned ridging aloft will begin to crest over the region, with geopotential heights rising to the point of driving 850 mb temperatures up to 16C-18C. This will translate to surface high temperature values reaching the low 80s to low 90s. Persistent southwesterly flow will continuously advect warm, moist air in across the region as well, greatly increasing the humidity in comparison to the last couple of days. Heat indices are therefore expected to become dangerous in portions of the Mohawk, Hudson, and Connecticut River Valleys where a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM tomorrow. Expect heat index values to range from 95F to 98F. However, the ridge overhead will keep us dry for another day, so while time outdoors should be limited, dry conditions will make this another dry weekend. Lows tomorrow night will only fall to the 60s to low 70s. Monday will be another hot, humid day, potentially warranting additional Heat Advisories. However, will hold off until tomorrow to allow confidence to increase and mitigate overlapping zones. Highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s once again, though 90s will not be as widespread as Sunday, with increased humidity leading to heat indices of 95F to 100F. But Monday will not pass without chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Thunderstorms look more likely to the north and west of the Capital District where moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be present ahead of an incoming shortwave and area of low pressure riding along a cold front. At present, the SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms out for portions of the Southwest Adirondacks Monday with the primary threats being strong to locally damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours. Latest CAMs are somewhat varied in their depiction of the spatial spread of storms Monday, but timing is a bit more consistent with onset in the early to mid-afternoon. Will continue to monitor the situation as lead time decreases. South of I-90, rain is becoming increasingly possible Monday evening into Monday night as a result of what is now Tropical Storm Chantal. Presently, the system looks to reach our area as a much weakened, post-tropical disturbance which will bring mainly showers to areas south of the Capital District. But as there is still considerable uncertainty with the track of this system, maximized PoPs at high chance for this time period. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday as the aforementioned low and shortwave move through the region. Highs Tuesday will continue to be warm and conditions humid, but much less than Monday with air temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s and heat indices maximized in the low to possible low 90s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A brief break in unsettled conditions is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday before additional unsettled conditions are on tap for Thursday and Friday. An upper-level low and associated trough look to bring additional chances for showers and thunderstorms during the end of the week, but a fair amount of uncertainty still exists in the track, evolution, and eventual result of this system. Therefore, kept PoPs within slight chance to chance thresholds. A general cooling trend is, however, more confident for the extended forecast period with highs beginning in the mid 70s to upper 80s Wednesday and cooling to the 70s to low 80s by Friday. Lows throughout the period will generally be in the upper 50s to 60s. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception may be for some brief/occasional fog at KGFL in the overnight to early morning hours. Confidence is low since there should be a fairly thick canopy of high level clouds overhead, but there could be enough breaks for some fog. VFR should prevail at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT early this evening will become variable less than 5 KT overnight, then south to southwest at 8-12 KT late Sunday morning into the afternoon, with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ040-041-043- 049-050-052-053-059-060-083-084. MA...None. VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ015. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Gant NEAR TERM...Gant SHORT TERM...Gant LONG TERM...Gant AVIATION...KL/JPV