743
FXUS61 KALY 052315
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
715 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists for the remainder of the Holiday
Weekend, though high heat and humidity become reintroduced across
the region beginning Sunday. Heat indices therefore will be
dangerous for some within valley areas tomorrow while such
conditions become potentially more widespread for Monday. An active
pattern then sets in Monday through the middle of the week with
chances for showers and thunderstorms almost daily.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pleasant, early July conditions keep hold of the region this
afternoon with high pressure having remained in place. Mid- to upper-
level ridging aloft has kept all showers, and most clouds for that
matter, at bay as a low pressure system traverses eastern Canada.
Large-scale subsidence will continue to keep conditions dry
through tonight with low temperatures falling largely to the
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Dangerous heat and humidity return Sunday through Monday.

 - Previous Heat Advisory for Sunday has been expanded to
   include additional portions of the Hudson and Connecticut
   River Valleys.

Discussion:
Though the dominating surface high shifts south and east tonight
into tomorrow, the aforementioned ridging aloft will begin to
crest over the region, with geopotential heights rising to the
point of driving 850 mb temperatures up to 16C-18C. This will
translate to surface high temperature values reaching the low
80s to low 90s. Persistent southwesterly flow will continuously
advect warm, moist air in across the region as well, greatly
increasing the humidity in comparison to the last couple of
days. Heat indices are therefore expected to become dangerous in
portions of the Mohawk, Hudson, and Connecticut River Valleys
where a Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM tomorrow.
Expect heat index values to range from 95F to 98F. However, the
ridge overhead will keep us dry for another day, so while time
outdoors should be limited, dry conditions will make this
another dry weekend. Lows tomorrow night will only fall to the
60s to low 70s.

Monday will be another hot, humid day, potentially warranting
additional Heat Advisories. However, will hold off until
tomorrow to allow confidence to increase and mitigate
overlapping zones. Highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s once
again, though 90s will not be as widespread as Sunday, with
increased humidity leading to heat indices of 95F to 100F. But
Monday will not pass without chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Thunderstorms look
more likely to the north and west of the Capital District where
moderate instability and steep lapse rates will be present ahead
of an incoming shortwave and area of low pressure riding along a
cold front. At present, the SPC has a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms out for portions of the Southwest Adirondacks
Monday with the primary threats being strong to locally damaging
wind gusts and heavy downpours. Latest CAMs are somewhat varied
in their depiction of the spatial spread of storms Monday, but
timing is a bit more consistent with onset in the early to
mid-afternoon. Will continue to monitor the situation as lead
time decreases. South of I-90, rain is becoming increasingly
possible Monday evening into Monday night as a result of what
is now Tropical Storm Chantal. Presently, the system looks to
reach our area as a much weakened, post-tropical disturbance
which will bring mainly showers to areas south of the Capital
District. But as there is still considerable uncertainty with
the track of this system, maximized PoPs at high chance for this
time period. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be
possible Tuesday as the aforementioned low and shortwave move
through the region. Highs Tuesday will continue to be warm and
conditions humid, but much less than Monday with air
temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s and heat indices
maximized in the  low to possible low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brief break in unsettled conditions is expected Tuesday night
into Wednesday before additional unsettled conditions are on tap
for Thursday and Friday. An upper-level low and associated
trough look to bring additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the end of the week, but a fair amount of
uncertainty still exists in the track, evolution, and eventual
result of this system. Therefore, kept PoPs within slight chance
to chance thresholds. A general cooling trend is, however, more
confident for the extended forecast period with highs beginning
in the mid 70s to upper 80s Wednesday and cooling to the 70s to
low 80s by Friday. Lows throughout the period will generally be
in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to generally
prevail through the 24 hour TAF period. The only exception may
be for some brief/occasional fog at KGFL in the overnight to
early morning hours. Confidence is low since there should be a
fairly thick canopy of high level clouds overhead, but there
could be enough breaks for some fog. VFR should prevail at
KALB/KPOU/KPSF. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT early this
evening will become variable less than 5 KT overnight, then
south to southwest at 8-12 KT late Sunday morning into the
afternoon, with a few gusts of 15-20 KT possible.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for CTZ001-
     013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ040-041-043-
     049-050-052-053-059-060-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...KL/JPV