055
FXUS61 KBOX 081856
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
256 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon and evening brings scattered thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging winds and flash flooding. Cooler
weather expected Wednesday and beyond. Possible break from
unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Strong to severe storms possible with heavy downpours and
potential for flash flooding.
Already seeing several storms pop along the NY/CT state line as
well as along the south coast sea breeze boundary. Expecting
storms to continue to pop up through the afternoon and continue
into the overnight period... though the area of greatest concern
generally along and south of the MA Pike, some storms could
form along the north coast. Orientation looks to generally be SW
to NE, in line with nearly unidirectional SW flow in the
low/mid levels suggesting potential for slow moving and training
storms. With warm cloud depths near 14,000 ft suggesting
efficient warm rain processes, storms that form will have the
potential to drop an 1-2 inches of rain in an hour and cause
localized flash flooding issues, especially in urban areas. A
Flood Watch continues for the area thought to stand the greatest
risk from mid afternoon through the first half of the overnight
hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible but not a washout.
* Much cooler with highs in the 70s along the east coast and 80s
elsewhere.
Cooler temperatures move in once the winds flip to easterly
onshore flow. As such, the eastern coast of SNE should top out
in the 70s while the hottest spot will be western/central MA,
especially the CT valley where highs reach the mid 80s. Plenty
of moisture sticking around with PWATs still 1.5+ inches, but a
weakly forced environment so any showers will be scattered and
difficult to nail down where exactly they`ll materialize.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Periodic chances for showers through Friday before a break in
the unsettled weather this weekend.
* Near to below average temperatures.
It is expected to remain quite humid through this weekend. Just
thinking a brief cooldown Thursday, then the heat starts to
build again into early next week.
Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern into Friday.
Still a risk for some showers and thunderstorms Thursday, and
less of a risk Friday. It`s likely Saturday is the day which
features the lowest chance for showers. Even Sunday should be
dry most of the time, with the risk for some showers and
thunderstorms late in the day. Have low confidence in the
forecast details early next week. Too much uncertainty with the
timing of potential showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z update...
Today...Moderate confidence.
W winds 5-10 kts with some occasional gusts 20-25 kts.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA with heavy downpours likely in the afternoon
and evening, especially across the southern terminals. Moderate
confidence in storm placement and timing.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
IFR cigs expand from east coast to as far west as ORH by 06z,
into western MA/CT terminals by 12z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
continue through at least 06z.
Tuesday...Moderate confidence.
IFR cigs continue through most of the day from ORH east,
MVFR/VFR west of ORH. NE winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF only with regard to
timing of possible convection.
KBDL Terminal...Low confidence in TAF only with regard to
timing of possible convection.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, slight
chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.
Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today and tonight: High confidence.
SW winds 15-20 kts with seas 2-4 ft on the eastern waters, 3-6 ft on
the southern waters. Showers and thunderstorms expected late evening
through the overnight hours.
Wednesday: High confidence.
Winds 5-10 kts out of the SW on the southern waters and out of the
NE on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft.
Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms,
patchy fog.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.
Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance
of thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004.
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007-
010>022-026.
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ011>013-015>022.
RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>007.
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>007.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235-
237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/McMinn
MARINE...Belk/McMinn