055 FXUS61 KBOX 081856 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 256 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... This afternoon and evening brings scattered thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and flash flooding. Cooler weather expected Wednesday and beyond. Possible break from unsettled weather for the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Key Messages... * Strong to severe storms possible with heavy downpours and potential for flash flooding. Already seeing several storms pop along the NY/CT state line as well as along the south coast sea breeze boundary. Expecting storms to continue to pop up through the afternoon and continue into the overnight period... though the area of greatest concern generally along and south of the MA Pike, some storms could form along the north coast. Orientation looks to generally be SW to NE, in line with nearly unidirectional SW flow in the low/mid levels suggesting potential for slow moving and training storms. With warm cloud depths near 14,000 ft suggesting efficient warm rain processes, storms that form will have the potential to drop an 1-2 inches of rain in an hour and cause localized flash flooding issues, especially in urban areas. A Flood Watch continues for the area thought to stand the greatest risk from mid afternoon through the first half of the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible but not a washout. * Much cooler with highs in the 70s along the east coast and 80s elsewhere. Cooler temperatures move in once the winds flip to easterly onshore flow. As such, the eastern coast of SNE should top out in the 70s while the hottest spot will be western/central MA, especially the CT valley where highs reach the mid 80s. Plenty of moisture sticking around with PWATs still 1.5+ inches, but a weakly forced environment so any showers will be scattered and difficult to nail down where exactly they`ll materialize. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages... * Periodic chances for showers through Friday before a break in the unsettled weather this weekend. * Near to below average temperatures. It is expected to remain quite humid through this weekend. Just thinking a brief cooldown Thursday, then the heat starts to build again into early next week. Not much change to the overall synoptic pattern into Friday. Still a risk for some showers and thunderstorms Thursday, and less of a risk Friday. It`s likely Saturday is the day which features the lowest chance for showers. Even Sunday should be dry most of the time, with the risk for some showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Have low confidence in the forecast details early next week. Too much uncertainty with the timing of potential showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. 18Z update... Today...Moderate confidence. W winds 5-10 kts with some occasional gusts 20-25 kts. Scattered SHRA/TSRA with heavy downpours likely in the afternoon and evening, especially across the southern terminals. Moderate confidence in storm placement and timing. Tonight...Moderate confidence. IFR cigs expand from east coast to as far west as ORH by 06z, into western MA/CT terminals by 12z. Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue through at least 06z. Tuesday...Moderate confidence. IFR cigs continue through most of the day from ORH east, MVFR/VFR west of ORH. NE winds 5-10 kts. KBOS Terminal...Low confidence in TAF only with regard to timing of possible convection. KBDL Terminal...Low confidence in TAF only with regard to timing of possible convection. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Saturday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Today and tonight: High confidence. SW winds 15-20 kts with seas 2-4 ft on the eastern waters, 3-6 ft on the southern waters. Showers and thunderstorms expected late evening through the overnight hours. Wednesday: High confidence. Winds 5-10 kts out of the SW on the southern waters and out of the NE on the eastern waters. Seas 2-4 ft. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ003>007- 010>022-026. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ011>013-015>022. RI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>007. Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for RIZ001>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ235- 237. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn NEAR TERM...McMinn SHORT TERM...McMinn LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Belk/McMinn MARINE...Belk/McMinn