688
FXUS61 KLWX 021921
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
321 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build over the area through Tuesday,
before sliding east Wednesday and Thursday. A low pressure
system will approach the region toward the end of the week,
with the frontal zone settling across the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure is located over Virginia today. Upper
trough axis is moving off the east coast, with a ridge axis over
the Mississippi Valley into Ontario. These features will shift
eastward over the coming days. A thin veil of smoke aloft has
been spreading across the area this afternoon. HRRR smoke
modeling indicates a thickening smoke layer could start to
spread into the area later tonight. However, am not terribly
confident in this outcome considering the current plume is not
handled well. The only other weather issue tonight is potential
for river valley fog as temperatures remain below normal.
Favored cooler guidance, especially in the valleys, with lows
ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging maintains dry weather through Wednesday night. HRRR
smoke model indicates potential for hazy skies Tuesday as the
advancing ridge advects smoke which has settled to our
southwest. Our air quality partners will determine if this
could ultimately affect near surface conditions. There may be a
few more clouds around Wednesday.

The building ridge and departing surface high will result in a
rapid warming of the airmass. Tuesday`s highs will be in the
upper 70s to mid 80s, followed by temperatures reaching the mid
50s to mid 60s Tuesday night. Highs on Wednesday will rise into
the mid 80s to around 90, and dew points rising into the lower
to mid 60s will make it feel a bit muggier as well. Likewise,
lows only drop into the 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic should have
enough of an influence in the weather that our region should
remain dry on Thursday into Thursday night. An exception to
this could be western Maryland where the ridge is weaker and
weak pieces of energy arrive from the west. There is a chance
for a couple of showers or a thunderstorm in these areas. High
temperatures should reach the upper 80s Thursday, if not the lower
90s in many eastern places that get good sunshine.

Dry conditions should hold true Friday into Friday night for
the eastern and southern zones. The western and northern zones
would likely get showers and a few thunderstorms midday Friday
into Friday night, when additional waves of energy push across
the region from the west. High temperatures again should reach
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Places that have cloud cover and
convection in the west and north would likely be lower 80s for
temperatures.

Through the day Saturday into Saturday night, the ridge of high
pressure will pretty much be gone from the region. A surface trough
of low pressure over the central zones, and a surface cold front
approaching from the west, along with increased instability will all
lead to a semi-active to active day on Saturday into Saturday night.
Highs lower to middle 80s.

The front may settle to the south Sunday into Monday, but could
be close enough by to result in continued chances of some
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will trend lower but
could remain a little above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night with high
pressure in control. There is some potential for river valley
fog tonight, though current guidance does not indicate any
affecting MRB. Some high altitude smoke from Canadian wildfires
may be present off and on throughout the period as well.
Visibilities could be affected slightly Tuesday in particular,
but as of now, this does not appear to be similar to events last
year. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight,
before becoming light out of the south on Tuesday.

VFR conditions should largely Thursday through Friday night.
However, the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will gradually increase each day, with MRB having the highest
chance of being affected. Winds south to southwest 5 to 10
knots through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds already showing signs of being variable/diurnally driven
as surface high pressure moves overhead through tonight. Winds
should more predominantly become south to southeast by Tuesday
afternoon as the high starts to slide to the east.

Southerly flow will begin to increase in intensity by Wednesday
through Friday with high pressure off the coast. Winds should
remain below SCA criteria during the day, as air temps will be
much warmer than water temperatures. However, as temperatures
cool closer to the water temperatures during the evening and
overnight periods, the pattern becomes favorable for southerly
channeling along the bay Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights.
SCAs may be needed at times during this period.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...ADS/KLW
MARINE...ADS/KLW