022 FXUS61 KLWX 100755 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area later today. High pressure will build across the area Wednesday through Friday with above normal temperatures expected. Next chance of arrives with a slow moving front for the weekend ahead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Numerous showers will continue over the Appalachian Mountains through 18Z today due to upslope flow, while an isolated shower may persist across the rest of the area through 12Z before cold front crosses the area later today. Otherwise, rapid dry air advection is expected to take place after 12Z in WNW winds. Only isold to widely scattered showers seem possible this afternoon, well south of the Capital Beltway toward southern MD. Any shra activity is expected to dissipate or exit the area by 00Z Wed and likely sooner than that. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu with dry conditions expected. Temperatures turn hotter on Thursday as southwest winds develop and 925 and 850 mb temps rise to 25C/18C respectively. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is expected to weaken on Friday to allow for low pressure to form on the leeside of the Appalachians. This low, along with a backdoor cold front approaching from the north, will spawn shower and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and could linger through Friday night and much of the day Saturday. The backdoor front appears to stall across the heart of our region Saturday, Saturday night and into most of Sunday. There could be some north and south oscillation of this front; nonetheless, next weekend looks active and west for much of our region. There is a hint of an area of high pressure that could develop over New England and build south along the East US Coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Should this happen, this would push a lot of our shower and thunderstorm chances into the western half of our region late Sunday, Sunday night and into Monday. Although it doesn`t look like it is going to be a dry Monday, early next week, it seems that the convection coverage could be less and hopefully less intense. High temperatures on Friday appear to be quite warm with many places hitting or exceeding the 90 degree mark, especially east of the Blue Ridge. This would be prior to developing convection Friday afternoon. Lows Friday night should get into the middle 60s. Highs on Saturday through Monday will be cooler due to cloud cover and multiple rounds of convection. Still, temperatures will be near seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IFR cigs are expected at BWI and MTN through later this morning, then mix out thereafter. Thunderstorm chances today are likely to remain well south of the terminals. Therefore, not planning to include any tempo or prob30 groups. Light winds will shift to a WNW direction later today after frontal passage with speeds up to 10 kt. VFR conditions possible at all terminals Friday morning, before introducing an MVFR or IFR possibility due to heavy or widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Winds light and variable through the period. Winds may be more north to northeasterly at locations to the north of the backdoor front, while south to southeasterly winds expected at locations to the south of the front. && .MARINE... Isolated to widely scattered t-storms are expected this afternoon, mainly south of Cobb Island and Drum Point SMWs may be required. Storms should exit the waters by 00Z Wed. Any marine hazards Friday afternoon through Saturday night would likely be in response to showers and thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of a cold front/stationary front through the period. These hazards would be Special Marine Warnings or Marine Weather Statements at best. Winds generally northerly in direction to the north of the front. Winds southerly to the south of the front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal coastal flooding is possible at Annapolis with the high tide at 542 AM today. Otherwise, WNW winds later today will bring water levels down through mid week. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR/EST SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW MARINE...LFR/KLW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR