285
FXUS61 KAKQ 170119
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
919 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, drier weather persists through midweek, with gradually
moderating temperatures and continued drying conditions late
this week into the weekend. Rain chances increase with
approaching cold front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 919 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Frost Advisory issued for portions of the Piedmont tonight

High pressure has started to build across the region, and wind
speeds have already dropped considerably over the past few hours
in response. Land-based observation sites are measuring winds
of 5 mph or less in most areas. GOES Nighttime Microphysics is
highlighting mostly clear skies across the forecast area this
evening, with a few high clouds moving swiftly across central
and south central VA. Dew points are generally in the 30s, with
a few upper 20s dew points in the NW counties. With a dry
airmass in place, light winds, and mostly clear skies, there is
a very favorable environment for radiational cooling tonight.
Temperatures will drop quickly overnight, with some areas in the
piedmont west of Richmond expected to see temperatures as low
as 33-36F. With that said, a brief/patchy frost will be possible
for most of the western half of the area, but the areas west of
RIC will see more widespread areas of frost. A Frost Advisory
remains in effect for portions of the Piedmont from Prince
Edward and Nottoway counties NNE to Caroline County, and we have
since added western Chesterfield as temperatures look to drop
into Frost Advisory criteria there as well. The remainder of the
forecast area will see temperatures in the upper 30s to lower
40s (mainly in SE VA and NE NC).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend and continued dry weather through the end of the
  week

Sfc high pressure lingers over the region on Thursday, as the
upper ridge translates eastward. Light winds veer around to the
SSW by afternoon, allowing thicknesses to steadily increase as
an UL ridge builds in over the eastern CONUS. This will lead to
a warming trend that will peak this weekend. Highs tomorrow will
warm about a category, into the upper 60s to around 70 inland
and low- mid 60s along the coast, with early morning lows Friday
in the mid 40s. Warmer on Friday, with highs in the low 80s
inland/mid- upper 70s at the coast, with milder lows early
Saturday in the upper 50s to low 60s. While winds will be
fairly light on through Fri morning under high pressure, SW
winds become breezy again Fri when the pressure gradient
tightens behind the high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EST Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Warming trend continues this weekend.

- The next cold front approaches the area late in the weekend
  with chances for showers and few storms returning to the
  region early next week.

The upper ridge axis slides over the E coast on Saturday.
Breezy SW winds continue the warming trend, owing to the
tightening pressure gradient between the Bermuda Ridge offshore
and a cold front well to the W. This continues the warming
trend, with highs Saturday in the mid 80s W of the bay and low
80s and the upper 70s- low 80s on the Eastern Shore. Sunday
looks fairly similar to Sat, albeit a couple degrees cooler
under increased cloud cover. A chilly upper low dropping out of
central Canada looks to nudge a backdoor cold front toward the
FA into Monday, but there is still no clear signal for
increasing rain chances until the trailing system approaches by
later in the week. However, the developing E-SE flow would
likely cool us down a bit more as we head into early next week.
For now, the forecast calls for a temp gradient of upper 60s to
low 80s from N to S. The next shot at widespread precip looks
to be early next week with the previously referenced cold
frontal passage later Mon and Tue, though it should be noted
that continued differences in timing between the global models
keeps forecast confidence on the low side, with PoPs no higher
than 30-40%. Forecast temps based on blended guidance for
Tues/Wed are in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 729 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period,
with clear skies and rain-free conditions expected. Winds will
continue to decrease over the next few hours, and all gusts will
drop out by around 02Z, if not earlier. Winds will likely
decouple overnight, so periods of light and variable winds are
possible. Otherwise, winds will be light from the northwest.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue through the end of the
week. High pressure lingering along the coast brings lighter
winds under a mostly clear sky Thursday and Thursday night.
Remaining mostly dry through the weekend. The next shot at
widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs remain in effect across the local waters.

- Another period of elevated southerly winds arrives Friday afternoon
  into Saturday afternoon ahead of the next cold front.

Afternoon wx analysis depicted a pressure gradient across the local
waters with high pressure across the MS Valley and low pressure
across SE Canada. Winds this afternoon were W/NW 15-20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt. High pressure builds in tonight into Thu with winds
diminishing. A lull in SCA conditions is expected this evening.
However, a secondary NW surge is expected overnight behind a weak
trough. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt with this
surge across the middle and upper Bay as well as the N coastal
waters. Winds will be lighter across the lower Bay and S coastal
waters (~15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt). Recent trends have lowered
confidence in reaching SCA criteria across the lower Bay (<20% probs
for 18 kt sustained winds). As such, have opted to remove them from
the SCAs for tonight. Confidence remains moderate across the middle
and upper Bay (40-80%) where SCAs remain in effect through tonight.
Otherwise, SCAs will be allowed to expire at 4 PM across the coastal
waters and Currituck Sound (due to diminishing winds) and remain in
effect until 7 PM this evening for the rivers due to gusty winds
blowing off the land.

Winds diminish to 5-10 kt Thu as high pressure settles into the
area. Winds become S Thu night as the high moves offshore. Winds
increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt (up to 30 kt across the
coastal waters) Fri afternoon into Sat afternoon, becoming SW late
Fri night. Wind probs for 18 kt winds increase to 60-90% Fri
afternoon and 90%+ by Sat morning across the Ches Bay. As such,
there is moderate-high confidence in needing SCAs Fri afternoon into
Sat afternoon.

Waves and seas were 2-3 ft and 2-4 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves briefly build to 3-4 ft across the middle and upper Bay
tonight. Seas build to 4-5 ft (potentially up to 6 ft) Fri night
into Sat.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ048-
     060>062-064-067>069-509>511-513.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/NB
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...RMM