162
FXUS61 KAKQ 281739
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
139 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather persists through the middle of the week
before cooler temperatures arrive by Friday behind a seasonally
strong cold front. Widespread showers and storms are likely on
Thursday and Friday with the cold front passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 550 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories remain in effect today across portions of
  central, southern, and eastern VA as well as northeast NC.

Aloft, a large ridge remains centered across the central CONUS
today. This will allow for continued hot and humid conditions today.
Temps as of 550 AM ranged from the low-mid 70s (most in the
lower 70s) under partly cloudy skies. Partly sunny skies are
expected today with afternoon CU developing. Otherwise today
will be cooler than yesterday with highs this afternoon in the
low-mid 90s. The widespread storms from yesterday
afternoon/evening have overturned the airmass, allowing temps
early this morning to be cooler than most model guidance showed.
In similar setups, this has led to underperforming temps and/or
dew points. The 00z CAMs appeared to catch on to this potential
and generally showed lower temps and dew points than previously
forecast. As such, have kept highs in the low-mid 90s for most
(cooler along the coast) and lowered dew points this afternoon
to the mid 70s for most (upper 70s dew points remain possible
along the coast and across SE VA/NE NC). This effectively
lowered heat indices to around 100-103F across much of the
Piedmont, the Eastern Shore, and along the coast with maximum
heat indices up to ~106F possible across SE/E VA and NE NC. DESI
HREF probs for heat indices >104F have also decreased W of I-95
and N of I-64. As such, confidence in the W and N portions of
the Heat Advisories reaching criteria has decreased. However,
given the uncertainties with respect to forecasting the exact
temp and dew point and the impact of being of by 1 degree for
either, have opted to continue the current Heat Advisories for
portions of central VA, S/E VA, and NE NC today. The highest
confidence for these areas reaching at least 105F is E of I-95
and S of I-64, particularly across far S VA and NE NC where DESI
HREF probs for heat indices >104F were 40-80%.

Additionally, while most areas should remain dry today, isolated to
scattered storms are possible across far S/SE VA and NE NC this
afternoon. The highest PoPs are across NE NC (25-45%) with 15-20%
PoPs across far S VA. While the chance for severe weather and/or
flash flooding is low, cannot rule out a few strong gusts and/or
locally heavy rain with any storms that form. Any convection tapers
off by this evening with overnight lows tonight again in the low-mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Hot weather continues through mid week with highs in the mid
  90s Tue and mid to upper 90s Wed possible.

- Additional Heat Advisories are possible on Wed as heat indices increase
  to above 105 degrees across inland portions of the area.

Aloft, the ridge slowly retrogrades early this week to the W.
However, enough of the ridge remains over the area to allow for
continued hot and humid weather. Highs are expected to be mainly in
the mid 90s Tue and mid-upper 90s Wed. Meanwhile, a slight reprieve
to the humidity appears possible on Tue with dew points mixing out
to the lower 70s during the afternoon (potentially upper 60s in
spots). This will allow for heat indices to likely remain below Heat
Advisory criteria with maximum values around 100-104F.

A cold front drops S across the N Mid-Atlantic on Wed, remaining N
of the local area. While the front remains N of the local area, S
winds will advect moisture into the area with dew points rising back
into the mid 70s (particularly across the Piedmont and bay/coast).
Meanwhile, temps warm into the mid-upper 90s. This will result in
heat indices of 105-109F across the NW two thirds of the FA with
lower 100s across the SE third of the area. As such, Heat Advisories
are possible across at least a portion of the FA on Wed. Lows Wed
night in the mid-upper 70s (highest in urban areas and along the
coast) are expected.

Outside of the heat, mainly dry conditions are expected Tue and Wed
with a few isolated storms possible across the Piedmont late Tue
afternoon into Tue evening (20-30% PoPs).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms are likely Thursday into Friday
  as a strong cold front moves south across the area.

- Much cooler weather returns Friday, continuing into early next week.

Aloft, the ridge breaks down across the E CONUS, fully retrograding
into the W CONUS. Meanwhile, a trough drops S into the East Coast by
late week into the weekend. A strong ~1028mb high drops SE out of
Canada with the trough, pushing a seasonally strong cold front
through the area Thu into Thu night. Uncertainty remains for Thu
regarding the exact timing of the front. If the front trends faster,
then Thu would be cooler with heat indices likely remaining below
Heat Advisory criteria. However, if the front trends slower, then
moisture pooling ahead of the front would allow for heat indices to
approach 105F+ once again across portions of the FA with Heat
Advisories potentially needed for SE VA and/or NE NC. In any case,
once the convection arrives with the front, a noticeable change
in temps is expected.

Widespread showers and storms are expected Thu afternoon into Fri
afternoon ahead of and behind the cold front. For now, PoPs have
increased to 60-80% across the area. In fact, there is a decent
signal in the models and ensembles in a soaking rain across the
area. Both the GEFS and EPS show the potential for widespread
rainfall totals of 0.5-0.75" across the area. It`s worth pointing
out that this is the ensemble mean and not a maximum rainfall total.
Locally higher totals over 1" are possible. Given the signal, WPC
has kept the area under a Slight risk for excessive rainfall for
Thu. The cold front ushers us from the July heat wave to the August
reprieve as highs only in the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE are
expected on Fri (Aug 1). Highs remain generally in the lower 80s Sat
and Sun and low-mid 80s Mon with lows in the 60s inland (~70F along
the coast). In fact, the NBM has lows Sat and Sun nights only in the
upper 50s across the Piedmont! In any case, relief from the heat is
in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 139 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period.
A few intermittent MVFR CIGS are possible at PHF and ORF through the
afternoon, but due to the spotty nature of the low CIGS, will not
include them in the TAF. A few thunderstorms may pop up near ECG
this afternoon, but confidence remains too low in timing and
location to include at TEMPO at this time so have maintained a
PROB30 at this time. Winds will generally be light and variable
through tomorrow afternoon. Patchy fog and/or low CIGs are possible
early Tuesday morning, but there is not enough confidence to include
in the forecast at this time.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected through the
first half of the week with isolated to widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms. Primarily VFR through
Wednesday outside of thunderstorms and any localized IFR
CIGs/VSBYs in the typical spots during the early morning hours
of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected outside of
thunderstorms through the middle of the week.

- A stronger front approaches late this week with widespread Small
Craft conditions possible from Friday into the weekend.

Early this morning, high pressure is centered west of the waters
with a weak trough now well to the north. Earlier thunderstorm
activity has since dissipated, with westerly winds of 5 to 15 knots
currently over the waters. Seas are hovering around 2 feet, while
waves in the Chesapeake Bay are running around 1 to 2 feet.

Generally benign marine conditions are expected today through
Thursday with a rather weak pressure gradient over the waters. Winds
will generally be running 5 to 10 knots (or less) through this
timeframe, with daily seabreeze influences. Isolated afternoon
showers or thunderstorms each day could lead to locally higher
winds. Winds become S to SE during both Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons and increase to ~15 knots. While SCAs aren`t anticipated,
a few gusts to 20 knots will be possible both afternoons. A stronger
front approaches the area late this week with greater coverage of
showers and storms expected ahead of the boundary. Winds turn NE
behind the front with the potential for widespread SCA conditions
later Friday into the weekend as decent cold advection (by August
standards at least) ensues.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012>017-
     030>032-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ065>068-
     076>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-518-520-522>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB/NB
MARINE...AJB/RHR