870 FXUS61 KLWX 261934 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 334 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A front will stall over the forecast area before lifting north as a warm front Sunday evening. A warm and humid airmass will yield daily shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, ahead of a cold front bringing cooler temperatures by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7PM this evening for portions of the forecast area along I-95 in Virginia. Hot and humid conditions will continue to yield heat index values of around 105. Outside of the Heat Advisory, hot and humid conditions can still be expected with heat index values near or exceeding 100 at lower elevations. A weak front remains stalled overhead, which combined with a hot and humid airmass is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms will be scattered, although convection will be capable of becoming strong to severe. Within strong thunderstorms, isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall are possible. SPC has the northern portions of the forecast area stretching from Hagerstown toward the Metros in a Slight risk for severe weather. Model soundings showing plenty of moisture (PWATS nearing 2") and DCAPE of nearing or exceeding 1000 J/kg, will lead to strong thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds. Precipitation lingers overnight though convective activity will dwindle after the loss of daytime heating. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 70s for most with higher elevations && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A hot and humid airmass remains overhead Sunday and Monday, yielding daily shower and thunderstorm chances. A front lifts north of the forecast area on Sunday, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. With plenty of instability, storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with the primary hazard type being damaging wind gusts. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices 100-105 expected at lower elevations. A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the I-95 corridor eastward from noon to 8PM Sunday. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 70s for most with higher elevations dipping into the 60s. Weak surface high pressure builds to the south on Monday with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing with a hot and humid airmass in place. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be lower compared to Sunday, with precipitation chances largely confined to along and west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures will be in the 90s for most with higher elevations staying in the 80s. Heat index values of 100-105 are expected at lower elevations. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure/weak gradients will remain across the area Tuesday while the large upper ridge remains centered to the southwest. Forcing will be nebulous, so thunderstorm chances appear to be relatively lower and focused on the diurnal terrain circulations. However, we will be in northwest flow aloft around the ridge, so will have to be mindful of any remnant MCVs that could provide an extra source of lift. Heat will build further with the hottest conditions of the week expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs return solidly to the mid 90s with perhaps upper 90s. Drier air aloft may allow dew points to mix down a little, but heat index values will still likely top out in the 100-110 range across much of the area. A strong cold front will approach Wednesday into Thursday, though the timing is currently uncertain. Recent trends favor it dropping into the area Wednesday night or early Thursday. However, if forcing can align with peak heating, we`ll have to monitor for the potential of stronger thunderstorms. Cooler (below normal temperatures) and drier air continue to push into the area Friday. However, can`t remove rain chances entirely as some guidance indicates low pressure moving along the front to our south, spreading some showers into southern parts of the area. Saturday is more likely to remain dry, with dew points continuing to drop into the 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are possible across all terminals this afternoon as a front stalls nearby. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected with the exception being during showers and thunderstorms, where flight restrictions are expected. Primary threat this afternoon will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning during thunderstorms. Light and variable winds are expected today. Low clouds develop across the area overnight, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorm chances continue on Sunday as the front lifts north as a warm front. Coverage of storms will be greater with similar threats to today. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday, mainly at KMRB and KCHO. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions expected both days. Winds shift to southwesterly Sunday, blowing 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. On Monday, winds shift to northerly, blowing around 5 knots. VFR conditions should prevail Tuesday and most of Wednesday. Thunderstorm coverage will likely be a minimum Tuesday under high pressure...highest chances near the mountains. By Wednesday, a strong cold front will approach which could result in greater coverage, especially late in the day and continuing Thursday. && .MARINE... Daily shower and thunderstorm chances may lead to hazardous conditions over the waters each afternoon through this weekend. SMWs may be needed if storms become strong to severe over the waters. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to stay well west of the waters on Monday, with no marine hazards expected that day. Otherwise, winds remain below SCA each day. High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday will result in light gradient winds. At this time, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be more isolated Tuesday. Coverage of thunderstorms may increase late Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the area. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides will be on the gradual rise throughout the weekend with sensitive tidal locations reaching Action Stage during the high tide cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for DCZ001. MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ013-016>018. VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ037>039-050- 051-053>057-502-527. Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ050-051- 055>057-502. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AVS NEAR TERM...AVS SHORT TERM...AVS LONG TERM...ADS AVIATION...ADS/AVS MARINE...ADS/AVS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX