870
FXUS61 KLWX 261934
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall over the forecast area before lifting north as a
warm front Sunday evening. A warm and humid airmass will yield daily
shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek, ahead of a cold
front bringing cooler temperatures by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7PM this evening for
portions of the forecast area along I-95 in Virginia. Hot and
humid conditions will continue to yield heat index values of
around 105. Outside of the Heat Advisory, hot and humid
conditions can still be expected with heat index values near or
exceeding 100 at lower elevations.

A weak front remains stalled overhead, which combined with a hot and
humid airmass is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
area. Coverage of thunderstorms will be scattered, although
convection will be capable of becoming strong to severe. Within
strong thunderstorms, isolated instances of damaging wind gusts
and heavy rainfall are possible. SPC has the northern portions
of the forecast area stretching from Hagerstown toward the
Metros in a Slight risk for severe weather. Model soundings
showing plenty of moisture (PWATS nearing 2") and DCAPE of
nearing or exceeding 1000 J/kg, will lead to strong
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds.

Precipitation lingers overnight though convective activity will
dwindle after the loss of daytime heating. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the 70s for most with higher elevations

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A hot and humid airmass remains overhead Sunday and Monday, yielding
daily shower and thunderstorm chances. A front lifts north of the
forecast area on Sunday, bringing widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances. With plenty of instability, storms will be capable of
becoming strong to severe with the primary hazard type being
damaging wind gusts. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s with heat indices 100-105 expected at lower elevations.
A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the I-95 corridor
eastward from noon to 8PM Sunday. Overnight low temperatures
will be in the 70s for most with higher elevations dipping into
the 60s.

Weak surface high pressure builds to the south on Monday with shower
and thunderstorm chances continuing with a hot and humid airmass in
place. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be lower compared
to Sunday, with precipitation chances largely confined to along and
west of the Blue Ridge. High temperatures will be in the 90s for
most with higher elevations staying in the 80s. Heat index values of
100-105 are expected at lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure/weak gradients will remain across the area Tuesday
while the large upper ridge remains centered to the southwest.
Forcing will be nebulous, so thunderstorm chances appear to be
relatively lower and focused on the diurnal terrain circulations.
However, we will be in northwest flow aloft around the ridge, so
will have to be mindful of any remnant MCVs that could provide an
extra source of lift. Heat will build further with the hottest
conditions of the week expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs return
solidly to the mid 90s with perhaps upper 90s. Drier air aloft may
allow dew points to mix down a little, but heat index values will
still likely top out in the 100-110 range across much of the area.

A strong cold front will approach Wednesday into Thursday, though
the timing is currently uncertain. Recent trends favor it dropping
into the area Wednesday night or early Thursday. However, if forcing
can align with peak heating, we`ll have to monitor for the potential
of stronger thunderstorms. Cooler (below normal temperatures) and
drier air continue to push into the area Friday. However, can`t
remove rain chances entirely as some guidance indicates low pressure
moving along the front to our south, spreading some showers into
southern parts of the area. Saturday is more likely to remain dry,
with dew points continuing to drop into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are possible across all terminals this
afternoon as a front stalls nearby. Prevailing VFR conditions are
expected with the exception being during showers and thunderstorms,
where flight restrictions are expected. Primary threat this
afternoon will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and frequent
lightning during thunderstorms. Light and variable winds are
expected today.

Low clouds develop across the area overnight, with MVFR to IFR
conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorm chances continue on
Sunday as the front lifts north as a warm front. Coverage of storms
will be greater with similar threats to today. Showers and
thunderstorms remain possible Monday, mainly at KMRB and KCHO.
Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions expected both days. Winds shift
to southwesterly Sunday, blowing 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. On
Monday, winds shift to northerly, blowing around 5 knots.

VFR conditions should prevail Tuesday and most of Wednesday.
Thunderstorm coverage will likely be a minimum Tuesday under high
pressure...highest chances near the mountains. By Wednesday, a
strong cold front will approach which could result in greater
coverage, especially late in the day and continuing Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances may lead to hazardous
conditions over the waters each afternoon through this weekend. SMWs
may be needed if storms become strong to severe over the waters.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to stay well west of the
waters on Monday, with no marine hazards expected that day.
Otherwise, winds remain below SCA each day.

High pressure Tuesday into Wednesday will result in light gradient
winds. At this time, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be more
isolated Tuesday. Coverage of thunderstorms may increase late
Wednesday or Thursday as a cold front moves into the area.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides will be on the gradual rise throughout the weekend with
sensitive tidal locations reaching Action Stage during the high
tide cycle.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MDZ013-016>018.
VA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ037>039-050-
     051-053>057-502-527.
     Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ050-051-
     055>057-502.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS
MARINE...ADS/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX