684 FXUS61 KLWX 101937 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC Issued by National Weather Service State College PA 337 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the area Wednesday through Friday with above normal temperatures expected and increased humidity by the end of the week. Next chance of showers and storms will arrive later this week and especially into the weekend with a slow moving front pushing through the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Generally dry with warm seasonable temperatures and light W to WNW winds this afternoon for most as the cold front that pushed through earlier is mostly through the area. The one exception is central VA into southern MD. The front has not cleared these areas, and there is actually a decent amount of shear (35-45 kts) and instability (around 1000 J/kg of CAPE). Pair that with DCAPE values around 800-1000 J/kg and you have a decent setup for some gusty winds with any storms that can grow all enough. Not a substantial severe threat, but have seen a few stronger storms with the potential to produce 30-40 knots of wind here and there, as well as some small hail. This activity wanes quickly this evening as we lose daylight, and as the front continues to drift south. Winds go light tonight with gradually clearing skies. Some of the valleys could see some fog tonight, especially around the rivers and sheltered valleys. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure will build over the region Wednesday and Thursday with dry conditions expected throughout. Temperatures turn hotter on Thursday as southwest winds develop and 925 and 850 mb temps rise to 25C/18C respectively, but humidity remains on the lower side. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure is expected to weaken on Friday to allow for low pressure to form on the leeside of the Appalachians. This low, along with a backdoor cold front approaching from the north, will spawn shower and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and could linger through Friday night and much of the day Saturday. The backdoor front appears to stall across the heart of our region Saturday, Saturday night and into most of Sunday. There could be some north and south oscillation of this front; nonetheless, next weekend looks active and west for much of our region. There is a hint of an area of high pressure that could develop over New England and build south along the East US Coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Should this happen, this would push a lot of our shower and thunderstorm chances into the western half of our region late Sunday, Sunday night and into Monday. Although it doesn`t look like it is going to be a dry Monday, early next week, it seems that the convection coverage could be less and hopefully less intense. High temperatures on Friday appear to be quite warm with many places hitting or exceeding the 90 degree mark, especially east of the Blue Ridge. This would be prior to developing convection Friday afternoon. Lows Friday night should get into the middle 60s. Highs on Saturday through Monday will be cooler due to cloud cover and multiple rounds of convection. Still, temperatures will be near seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Light WNW winds expected for the rest of the afternoon behind the frontal passage earlier today with winds AOB 10 knots. Light winds and clearing skies could lead to some fog development later this evening, with the best chance near MRB and CHO. However, not confident enough to include in the TAFs at this time. VFR conditions expected through Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. Expect light winds during this time. VFR conditions possible at all terminals Friday morning, before introducing an MVFR or IFR possibility due to heavy or widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Winds light and variable through the period. Winds may be more north to northeasterly at locations to the north of the backdoor front, while south to southeasterly winds expected at locations to the south of the front. && .MARINE... Isolated to widely scattered t-storms are expected this afternoon, mainly south of Cobb Island and Drum Point. Some SMWs have already been issued, and may be needed in the next few hours. Storms should exit the waters by this evening. No marine hazards are expected Wednesday or Thursday as high pressure builds over the region. Any marine hazards Friday afternoon through Saturday night would likely be in response to showers and thunderstorms that develop along and ahead of a cold front/stationary front through the period. These hazards would be Special Marine Warnings or Marine Weather Statements at best. Winds generally northerly in direction to the north of the front. Winds southerly to the south of the front. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The more sensitive tidal sites could continue to hit action stage during the higher of the 2 high tide cycles the next couple of days. But overall, anomalies will slowly drop. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CJL NEAR TERM...CJL SHORT TERM...LFR/CJL LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...LFR/KLW/CJL MARINE...LFR/KLW/CJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...