022
FXUS61 KLWX 100755
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
355 AM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area later today. High pressure
will build across the area Wednesday through Friday with above
normal temperatures expected. Next chance of arrives with a
slow moving front for the weekend ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Numerous showers will continue over the Appalachian Mountains
through 18Z today due to upslope flow, while an isolated shower
may persist across the rest of the area through 12Z before
cold front crosses the area later today. Otherwise, rapid dry
air advection is expected to take place after 12Z in WNW winds.
Only isold to widely scattered showers seem possible this
afternoon, well south of the Capital Beltway toward southern MD.
Any shra activity is expected to dissipate or exit the area by
00Z Wed and likely sooner than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

Weak high pressure will build over the region Wed and Thu with
dry conditions expected. Temperatures turn hotter on Thursday as
southwest winds develop and 925 and 850 mb temps rise to 25C/18C
respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

High pressure is expected to weaken on Friday to allow for low
pressure to form on the leeside of the Appalachians. This low, along
with a backdoor cold front approaching from the north, will spawn
shower and thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon and could linger
through Friday night and much of the day Saturday. The backdoor
front appears to stall across the heart of our region Saturday,
Saturday night and into most of Sunday. There could be some north
and south oscillation of this front; nonetheless, next weekend looks
active and west for much of our region. There is a hint of an area
of high pressure that could develop over New England and build south
along the East US Coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Should this
happen, this would push a lot of our shower and thunderstorm chances
into the western half of our region late Sunday, Sunday night and
into Monday. Although it doesn`t look like it is going to be a dry
Monday, early next week, it seems that the convection coverage could
be less and hopefully less intense.

High temperatures on Friday appear to be quite warm with many
places hitting or exceeding the 90 degree mark, especially east
of the Blue Ridge. This would be prior to developing convection
Friday afternoon. Lows Friday night should get into the middle
60s. Highs on Saturday through Monday will be cooler due to
cloud cover and multiple rounds of convection. Still,
temperatures will be near seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

IFR cigs are expected at BWI and MTN through later this morning,
then mix out thereafter. Thunderstorm chances today are likely
to remain well south of the terminals. Therefore, not planning
to include any tempo or prob30 groups. Light winds will shift to
a WNW direction later today after frontal passage with speeds up
to 10 kt.

VFR conditions possible at all terminals Friday morning, before
introducing an MVFR or IFR possibility due to heavy or widespread
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and continuing through
Saturday night. Winds light and variable through the period. Winds
may be more north to northeasterly at locations to the north of the
backdoor front, while south to southeasterly winds expected at
locations to the south of the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Isolated to widely scattered t-storms are expected this
afternoon, mainly south of Cobb Island and Drum Point SMWs may
be required. Storms should exit the waters by 00Z Wed.

Any marine hazards Friday afternoon through Saturday night
would likely be in response to showers and thunderstorms that
develop along and ahead of a cold front/stationary front through the
period. These hazards would be Special Marine Warnings or Marine
Weather Statements at best. Winds generally northerly in direction
to the north of the front. Winds southerly to the south of the front.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal coastal flooding is possible at Annapolis with the
high tide at 542 AM today. Otherwise, WNW winds later today
will bring water levels down through mid week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR/EST
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...LFR/KLW
MARINE...LFR/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR