169
FXUS61 KLWX 271923
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
323 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north of the forecast area this afternoon as
weak surface high pressure builds to the southwest through
Tuesday. A cold front approaches from the Great Lakes Wednesday
before moving through the region on Thursday, bringing a
noticeable change in airmass for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently tracking across the
forecast area with additional storms moving in from the west.
Strong to severe thunderstorms have been and will continue to be
capable of producing damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and
frequent lightning. As the second round of storms move towards
the metros, areas that saw rain earlier today will be vulnerable
to flash flooding. PWATS nearing or exceeding 2" will lead to
heavy rainfall, mainly east of the Blue Ridge.

Precipitation will move out of the area this evening with dry
conditions expected overnight. Low temperatures will be in the
70s for most with higher elevations dipping in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday and Tuesday will offer a brief respite from the daily shower
and thunderstorm chances. Weak high pressure building to the
southwest accompanied by weak upper level ridging will yield
primarily dry conditions. That being said, there is a slight chance
to a chance of precipitation Monday afternoon west of the Blue Ridge
as shortwave energy passes to the north. Areas along and east
of the Blue Ridge will remain dry throughout the day. Conditions
remain dry throughout the day Tuesday with surface high
pressure continuing to build to the south.

Warm and humid conditions continue Monday and Tuesday with high
temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s both days. Higher elevations
will stay in the low to mid 80s. Humid conditions will yield heat
index values of 100 to 105 at lower elevations. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the 70s for most with those along and west
of the Alleghenies dipping into the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hot and humid conditions will continue Wednesday with highs reaching
the mid to perhaps upper 90s. While dew points may mix down a bit,
heat index values of 100-110 will remain possible. A shortwave
trough moving through the Great Lakes will help push a cold front
southward, but it may not reach the area until Wednesday night. Thus
there is some uncertainty with the coverage of thunderstorms during
the day, as there may just be some remnant activity that settles in
overnight. The front will be nearly overhead Thursday, and a wave of
low pressure may track along it. This will likely result in greater
coverage of precipitation. While there may be a risk for some
stronger storms either day, a heavy rain/flood threat may evolve
Thursday as convection potentially trains near the front in a
moisture rich airmass. While still muggy, heat should be less of a
concern Thursday with more clouds and the front nearby.

The frontal zone may remain close enough by on Friday for additional
chances of showers, although it will be cooler and cloudier and the
main boundary will be well to the south. Over the weekend,
conditions should improve as strong high pressure builds to the
north. Temperatures will drop below normal, and dew points will be
more comfortable in the 50s to around 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving southeast of the
terminals with visible satellite as of 2:30PM showing cumulus
clouds developing in their wake. While the strongest of the
expected convection today has moved through, pulse storms are
possible again through the evening. Confidence is lower on
location and timing, so kept it at a prob30. For KMRB and KCHO,
chances for showers and thunderstorms are highest. Within
strong to severe thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, torrential
rainfall, and frequent lightning are the primary hazards
possible across all terminals. Thunderstorm chances diminish
overnight with the loss of daytime heating with VFR conditions
expected. Winds stay out of the west, blowing 5 to 10 knots
before becoming light and variable overnight.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain for KMRB and KCHO on Monday
with terminals further east expected to remain dry. Prevailing VFR
conditions are forecast across all terminals, although brief periods
of flight restrictions are possible during precipitation at KMRB and
KCHO. Winds remain out of the north/northwest Monday and Tuesday,
blowing around 5 knots before becoming light and variable
overnight.

A cold front will approach late Wednesday and stall over the area
Thursday. Some thunderstorms may reach the area Wednesday, but there
will be a greater chance Thursday. Sub-VFR ceilings and lingering
showers will be possible Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
SMWs will likely be needed this afternoon and into the evening as
thunderstorms track across the waters. Strong winds and frequent
lightning are the main hazards expected today. Outside of
convection, winds stay below SCA criteria with no marine hazards
expected.

No hazardous marine conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday as
winds remain below SCA criteria. Winds remain light, blowing around
5 knots out of the north/northwest both days.

Southerly channeling may result in marginal advisory conditions
along the bay Wednesday evening. A few thunderstorms are possible as
a cold front approaches Wednesday night, with greater potential for
thunderstorms Thursday. As the front slowly pushes south, Small
Craft Advisories may be needed Friday in northerly flow.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tides remain elevated over the next several high tide cycles,
partially due to the recent new moon, and partially due to light
flow not really allowing water to exit southward out of the
Chesapeake Bay. No areas are forecast to hit minor at this time,
but sensitive tidal locations will continue to reach Action
Stage during the high tide cycles through mid-week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ013-016>018.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ037>039-050-
     051-053>057-502-527.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...AVS
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/CJL
MARINE...ADS/AVS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX