396 FXUS61 KLWX 100134 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will remain across the area through the end of the week. Weak high pressure will build over the area during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A few flood warnings remain in effect in parts of Northeast Maryland and a marine weather statement or two remains in effect across parts of the central Chesapeake Bay. Otherwise, low clouds and some patchy fog will be the story through the rest of the night. Low clouds and patchy fog will start the day, but will quickly be replaced by some building cumulus clouds throughout Thursday. Showers and a few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front in the region and be fueled by more moisture and instability. Damaging winds and flooding rainfall will be the main threats. One thing to note is that Thursday looks to be only partially as active as today was in the region. Not as many severe thunderstorm warnings or flood warnings. There will be some, but shouldn`t be as many and shouldn`t be as widespread. High temperatures Thursday will not be as warm either. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A developing low-level ridge of high pressure will promote a quieter day Friday with isolated convection in some places, while other places will have very little. There could be more showers than thunderstorms in central and southern zones, while the number of possible severe thunderstorms will be reduced as well with a ridge of high pressure trying to build into the area. Highs Friday will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Very little change to what is a typical Summertime pattern across the region. Sensible heat and humidity will remain along with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. This is a result of zonal flow aloft and no strong frontal boundaries set to cross the region. Overall, a stagnant airmass that will be hard to flip until at least the middle of next week. Synoptically, will continue to monitor an area of low pressure and shortwave trough tracking across the Great Lakes into eastern Canada this weekend. This shortwave trough combined with a dissipating frontal boundary will lead to an uptick in showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week. Once again. it will not be raining all the time with ample dry time for plans in between. Highest coverage will be during the afternoon and evening hours through at least Tuesday. As for severe weather, uncertainty remains given the placement of the wavering front and timing of shortwave energy as it pivots across. Current CSU learning machine guidance, CIPS pattern recognitions, and long range NSSL probs are leaning toward the Saturday and Sunday timeframe as the next potential period for organized convection. Either way thunderstorms will have the potential of producing locally damaging winds and instances of flash flooding each afternoon. This is due largely in part to the stagnant warm and moist airmass hanging tough over the region. Temperatures this weekend into early next week will range from the mid to upper 80s and low 90s. Heat indices will make it feel more like the mid to upper 90s. Beyond Monday, uncertainty continues in regards to a potential frontal passage. 12z synoptic/ensemble guidance show a cold front ejecting out of the Midwest and Ohio River Valley some time Tuesday into Wednesday next week. This front does not appear cross until then with a secondary front to follow late next week. The GFS tends to remain more aggressive in holding the current pattern while ECWMF and Canadian turn the pattern over mid next week.Temperatures and precipitation will continue to remain above average within the back half of the long term period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low clouds form overnight with IFR cigs expected before mixing/scattering out late Thursday morning. Less thunderstorm coverage than today. Some convection on Friday too, but should be reduced or very isolated. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Saturday through Monday. Sub- VFR reductions remain possible during the afternoon and evening hours as a result of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will remain light out of the south and southwest Saturday before turning light out of the west to northwest Sunday. && .MARINE... Special Marine Warnings and Marine Weather Statements will fall off overnight as convection moves east. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday as the front stalls nearby. Wind will be the primary threat with storms along with frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Additional SMWS will be needed to encompass this threat. Winds will remain light out of the south outside of thunderstorms, with outflows likely disrupting opportunities for southerly channeling outside of the open waters. Sub-SCA level winds are expected through the upcoming weekend despite a stalled front nearby. Light southerly winds are expected Friday and Saturday with light west to northwesterly winds on Sunday. Thunderstorms may be possible during the afternoon and evening hours, potentially leading to the issuance of SMWs. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR/KLW SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...EST AVIATION...LFR/KLW/EST MARINE...LFR/KLW/EST