021
FXUS61 KLWX 110134
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
934 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly pivot across the east coast through
the end of the week, bringing multiple rounds of rain to the
forecast area. On Saturday, the area of low pressure shifts offshore
as surface high pressure, located over the Ohio River Valley, builds
in from the west. Dry conditions and warming temperatures are
expected beginning Sunday, ahead of a cold front moving through the
area Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper troughing continues to dig across the Eastern US
this evening, with a weak lead shortwave tracking northeastward
toward Lake Erie, and a much stronger shortwave tracking
southeastward into the base of the trough over the Tennessee
Valley. As we progress through the night, the southern shortwave
will continue to dig, and will eventually close off into an
upper low over the southern Appalachians. Showers are ongoing
across the area this evening within weak low-level warm
advection downstream of the approaching longwave trough. On and
off showers will continue through the night, especially to the
east of the Blue Ridge. Pockets of drizzle may also be possible.
Temperatures will only drop a few degrees over the course of
the night, with overnight lows generally in the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As the aforementioned low pressure system tracks north from the
Carolinas, widespread showers are expected throughout the day on
Friday. WPC has the southern portions of the area and those along
and east of I-95 in a marginal risk for excessive rain with QPF
totals nearing 1.5" in those areas. That being said, persistent
drought conditions across the area will likely lead to this
being a beneficial rainfall event. Highest totals will be in the
metro areas with those west of the Blue Ridge seeing the least
amount of rain.

As temperatures fall overnight Friday into Saturday, rain may
mix with snow in the mountains. Outside of the highest
ridgetops in the Alleghenies, rain will be the dominant
precipitation type.

On Saturday, precipitation chances linger as a low pressure
system departs off the MD/DE coast. Conditions dry out initially in
the Shenadoah Valley with low end (30%) chance of precipitation
lingering through the afternoon elsewhere. High pressure builds in
over the Mid-Atlantic from the west with dry conditions and
decreasing cloud cover expected overnight. High temperatures on
Saturday will be in the 40s to mid 50s with overnight low
temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slow moving amplified upper level pattern will continue into next
week. The first trough will be moving off the coast Sunday, which
should result in clearing skies and warmer (seasonable) temperatures
compared to Saturday. There are some hints that warm advection aloft
could result in a brief chance of light showers or sprinkles Sunday
night. High pressure to the south should gain enough influence on
Monday for temperatures to warm further into the 60s and 70s.

The next trough will be evolving into a closed low across the
northern Great Lakes by late Monday. A cold front trailing the
associated surface low will push east into the area Monday night.
With weakening/glancing forcing and westerly flow, there will likely
be a tendency for showers and isolated thunderstorms to fall apart
as they cross the mountains. A couple secondary fronts may cross the
area Tuesday into Tuesday night. Precipitation with these boundaries
will likely be limited to upslope areas of the Allegheny Front. This
precipitation could change over to snow as temperatures fall.
Temperatures will likely return closer to normal Tuesday, then fall
below normal Wednesday. Wednesday night looks like the coldest of
the stretch, when some areas could fall below freezing. Winds will
also become gusty Tuesday through Wednesday due to the pressure
gradient tightening as the surface low moves along the St. Lawrence
Valley.

Surface high pressure will likely build in by Thursday. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings are starting to drop this evening, but most locations
remain VFR. Drops to MVFR, and then eventually IFR to LIFR
ceilings are expected over the course of the night. On and off
showers, along with pockets of drizzle will also be possible
over the course of the night.

Widespread rain will impact all terminals beginning Friday
morning, with IFR to LIFR CIGs expected. Rain will continue
throughout the day. NE winds gust up to 15 knots. Sub-VFR
conditions linger on Saturday as precipitation slowly exits the
region. Conditions improve to VFR Saturday night as conditions
dry out. NW winds on Saturday blow 5 to 10 knots and gust around
15 knots.

VFR conditions likely prevail Sunday through Tuesday, although there
is a low chance of rain showers Monday night. Northwest winds may
gust to 20 kt Sunday, followed by lighter south winds Monday. West
winds increase behind a cold front early Tuesday, potentially
gusting to around 30 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue through this evening for all waters with
southeast winds gusting up to 20 knots. While winds diminish
later this evening for the upper waters, SCA conditions linger
through the overnight for the lower portions of the waters.

SCA conditions possibly continue Friday and Saturday as a low
pressure system tracks nearby. Winds will be out of the N/NW,
gusting 15 to 20 knots over the waters.

SCA conditions in NW flow may linger into Sunday. Lighter winds are
expected Sunday night into Monday as high pressure builds into the
area, with direction becoming southerly. A cold front will push
through Monday night, with strong westerly winds developing in its
wake. SCAs are likely, and gusts could approach gale force.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-535-536-538-539.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ532>534-537-
     540>543.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AVS
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...AVS
LONG TERM...ADS
AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KJP
MARINE...ADS/AVS