132
FXUS61 KLWX 150142
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
942 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled to nearly stationary front will remain around the
region through Wednesday before lifting northward as a warm
front. A cold front will bring another round of rain toward the
end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Two main topics to get through the overnight - heavy rain and
smoke.

Heavy rain - Have trimmed the flood watch in the northern and
southwestern portions of previous watch to focus on corridor of
convergence with the highest threat through the rest of the
evening. High instantaneous rates could result in flash
flooding across portions of central VA into northern VA and
southern MD through the first part of the night. Elsewhere, a
few showers or a thunderstorm are possible with brief heavy
rain.

Smoke - The easterly flow has brought in smoke from NJ to the
sfc from the DC metro northward into northeast MD. This is
resulting in code orange to red air quality being observed.
Those with sensitive.

The cloudcover overnight will keep temperatures in the mid to
upper 60s for most.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Not much of a change in the forecast as a pesky stalled front
remains nearby. The good news is that Sunday appears drier
although cloud cover will remain due in part to onshore easterly
flow from strengthening high pressure off the New England
coast. This high pressure system looks to force the frontal
boundary further south into central and southwest VA Sunday
morning into SUnday midday. Subsidence behind shortwave low
pressure from Saturday evening will also promote a decrease in
PoPs as well for at least 2/3rds of the forecast region. Even
with that said, the risk for showers and thunderstorms will
still remain from the far western portions of the Alleghenies
south and east into central and eastern VA. This lines up with
both 00z CAM and synoptic guidance very well with the front
subdued to the south as jet max energy squirts east and high
pressure wedges in from the north. Once again, flash flooding
will be the primary concern with any showers and thunderstorms
that develop given the antecedent conditions. Locally damaging
winds cannot be ruled out as well with SPC maintains a Day 2
Marginal Risk for portions of the VA Piedmont mainly along and
south of I-64. Highs Sunday will push into the upper 60s and low
70s with easterly flow on the sable side of the boundary.
LOcations along and south of I-64 will sit in the mid to upper
70s to around 80 degrees.

The boundary works slowly back to the north Monday bringing
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does
not appear to be an issue as stable marine air will be slow to erode
over the region. Highs Monday will remain in the upper 60s and low
to mid 70s with the influence of high pressure along the New ENgland
coast still wedging south and the front slowly push back north from
central and southern VA. Overall coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be scattered with a focus mainly south and east
of metro areas. Convection chances increase again Tuesday as warmer
air works back into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The surface boundary over the area finally starts to dissipate and
lift north of the area come Tuesday, with a weak upper trough
approaching from the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form during the afternoon hours within a very humid
airmass (surface dewpoints around 70). High temperatures on Tuesday
are expected to be reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s for most.

High pressure strengthens offshore moving into the middle of the
week, leading to south to southwesterly low-level flow and
increasing heat and humidity locally. Temperatures should reach into
the 90s on both Wednesday and Thursday. When combined with dewpoints
in the lower 70s, heat indices may approach 100 on Thursday.
Thunderstorms appear possible both days, but the greater coverage
should be on Thursday as an upper trough tracks off to our north
across the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front approaching
from the west. Current model guidance suggests that ample
instability and shear may be present on Thursday, so some storms may
be on the stronger side. Upper troughing is expected to dig in from
the Great Lakes on Friday. Cooler and drier conditions are expected
locally in the wake of the system`s cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Once the thunderstorms and showers exit our region, IFR
ceilings are likely to build over all terminals with MVFR
visibilities due to drizzle.

Additional periods of sub-VFR conditions are likely to continue for
both Sunday and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain
during the afternoon and evening hours especially at terminals south
and east of KCHO. Areas further north will remain in a marine
airmass with persistent low clouds and areas of fog/low clouds
during the overnight/early morning periods.

Sub-VFR conditions may be possible Tuesday morning, but improvement
back to prevailing VFR conditions is expected Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
each afternoon/evening, and these could result in brief sub-VFR
conditions if they move over a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
A stalled front will remain draped across the waters through tis
evening. Winds continue out of the north and east tonight. Shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected once again later this
evening (mainly after 20z/4pm). Some storms may warrant Special
Marine Warnings with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as
the primary concerns. Low clouds will continue overnight, and
fog may form as well. Less shower and thunderstorm activity can
be expected Sunday and Monday. Winds will remain out of the
east on both days at less than 15 kts.

Winds are forecast to remain below SCA levels through the middle of
the week. Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms could pose a
threat to mariners from gusty winds and lightning strikes.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for DCZ001.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001.
MD...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ006-008-
     011-014-507-508.
     Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for MDZ013-016>018-
     503-504.
VA...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ027>031-
     038>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505>507-526-527.
WV...Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ053.
MARINE...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG/CPB
SHORT TERM...JMG/EST
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...JMG/KRR/EST
MARINE...KRR/EST