188 FXUS61 KLWX 011421 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1021 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area and remain in control through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure may bring a front through the region towards the end of the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Very little change needed in the near term of the forecast where high pressure will remain in control of the region the remainder of the day and tonight. Dry conditions expected this afternoon, as well as below average temperatures both this afternoon and tonight. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s for most (60s in the mountains). Canadian wildfire smoke still visible on satellite imagery. It is in the upper levels at this time. It shouldn`t make its way to the ground. Clear skies are expected tonight with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s once again. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Previous discussion... A few degrees warmer on Monday as the trough starts to slowly pull off towards the east. There will still be just enough influence though to keep temperatures below normal, with highs reaching the mid 70s for most (upper 60s to low 70s in the mountains). Low temperatures Monday night will come up into the 50s. A strong upper-ridge begins to build overhead by Tuesday. This will finally bump our region into above normal temperatures along with continue dry conditions. High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Overnight lows on Tuesday will be a lot warmer, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Broad Bermuda high pressure will set up Wednesday through Thursday. Dry conditions and very warm temperatures expected each day. Highs will be middle 80s to near 90 widespread on Wednesday. Thursday`s highs will be warmer and reach the lower 90s over the eastern two-thirds of the region. The high pressure will break down some Thursday night through Friday night. This will allow for increasing clouds and shower and thunderstorm chances to return to the region as early as Thursday night in the western zones and much of the day Friday all locations. There are some discrepancies in the models as in the coverage of convection and where it all comes from during this period. A few models say that a slow-moving cold front from the west arrives and brings it all. Other models are hinting of a low pressure system developing along the Carolina Coast and slides northward aiding in the convection. Nonetheless, Thursday night through possibly Saturday could be unsettled with heavy and frequent rounds of convection, while temperatures may be on a slight cooldown on Saturday due to this convection and a cold front moving through the region. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Previous discussion... VFR conditions are expected through Thursday night as high pressure slowly builds towards the region early in the week. Winds remain a little gusty this afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold front, up to around 15 to 20 knots. Light winds will turn much lighter Monday through the middle of the week, turning out of the south to southwest 5 to 10 knots throughout the period. Thunderstorm chances return by Thursday afternoon/evening, but mainly west of the Blue Ridge, so perhaps MRB could see impacts, but very uncertain at this time. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories remain in effect for the northern half of the Potomac and Chesapeake. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Monday through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across the area. Light northwest to west winds on Monday will turn out of the south-southeast by Tuesday. Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday during the daytime, with winds south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through the period. During the evening and overnight however, as air temperatures cool down closer to the water temperatures, southerly flow channeling up the Chesapeake Bay could approach SCA criteria. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530- 531-538-539. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLW NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...KLW/CJL MARINE...KLW/CJL