188
FXUS61 KLWX 011421
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1021 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area and remain in control
through much of the upcoming week. Another area of low pressure
may bring a front through the region towards the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Very little change needed in the near term of the forecast where
high pressure will remain in control of the region the remainder
of the day and tonight. Dry conditions expected this afternoon,
as well as below average temperatures both this afternoon and
tonight. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 70s for
most (60s in the mountains).

Canadian wildfire smoke still visible on satellite imagery. It
is in the upper levels at this time. It shouldn`t make its way
to the ground.

Clear skies are expected tonight with low temperatures dropping
into the upper 40s to low 50s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
A few degrees warmer on Monday as the trough starts to slowly
pull off towards the east. There will still be just enough
influence though to keep temperatures below normal, with highs
reaching the mid 70s for most (upper 60s to low 70s in the
mountains). Low temperatures Monday night will come up into the
50s.

A strong upper-ridge begins to build overhead by Tuesday. This
will finally bump our region into above normal temperatures
along with continue dry conditions. High temperatures are
forecast in the mid 80s, with 70s in the mountains. Overnight
lows on Tuesday will be a lot warmer, reaching the upper 50s to
low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Broad Bermuda high pressure will set up Wednesday through
Thursday. Dry conditions and very warm temperatures expected
each day. Highs will be middle 80s to near 90 widespread on
Wednesday. Thursday`s highs will be warmer and reach the lower
90s over the eastern two-thirds of the region.

The high pressure will break down some Thursday night through Friday
night. This will allow for increasing clouds and shower and
thunderstorm chances to return to the region as early as Thursday
night in the western zones and much of the day Friday all locations.
There are some discrepancies in the models as in the coverage of
convection and where it all comes from during this period. A few
models say that a slow-moving cold front from the west arrives and
brings it all. Other models are hinting of a low pressure system
developing along the Carolina Coast and slides northward aiding in
the convection. Nonetheless, Thursday night through possibly
Saturday could be unsettled with heavy and frequent rounds of
convection, while temperatures may be on a slight cooldown on
Saturday due to this convection and a cold front moving through the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Previous discussion...
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday night as high
pressure slowly builds towards the region early in the week.
Winds remain a little gusty this afternoon in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front, up to around 15 to 20 knots. Light winds
will turn much lighter Monday through the middle of the week,
turning out of the south to southwest 5 to 10 knots throughout
the period.

Thunderstorm chances return by Thursday afternoon/evening, but
mainly west of the Blue Ridge, so perhaps MRB could see impacts,
but very uncertain at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the northern half of
the Potomac and Chesapeake. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast
Monday through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across the
area. Light northwest to west winds on Monday will turn out of
the south-southeast by Tuesday.

Sub-SCA winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday during the
daytime, with winds south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through
the period. During the evening and overnight however, as air
temperatures cool down closer to the water temperatures,
southerly flow channeling up the Chesapeake Bay could approach
SCA criteria.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ530-
     531-538-539.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...KLW/CJL
SHORT TERM...CJL
LONG TERM...KLW
AVIATION...KLW/CJL
MARINE...KLW/CJL