375
FXUS61 KLWX 100102
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
902 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slide to the east later tonight into Tuesday
morning. Thunderstorms will be scattered and on the strong side
late this evening. High pressure will build across the area
Wednesday through Friday with above normal temperatures
expected. Next rain chance arrives with a slow moving front for
the weekend ahead.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of western MD,
far northwest VA, and the eastern WV panhandle until midnight.
Strong to severe thunderstorms, producing heavy rain, hail,
damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado will linger in this area
for another 2 to 3 hours. Localized rain amounts of 1-3 inches
are possible in the watch area. Saturated ground (FFG less than
1.5 inches due to recent rains) combined with PWATS up around
1.5" will lead to flash flooding concerns. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are noted across northern West Virginia and
southwest Pennsylvania. This activity doesn`t appear to be as
intense as the shower and thunderstorm activity within the Flash
Flood Watch.

Showers and hit and miss thunderstorms may still linger well
into the overnight, primarily across central and parts of
Northeast Maryland and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. The
intensity of this activity should be minimal to an extent of
damaging winds and hail, but nonetheless, we still have a cold
front that is off to our west. Therefore, anything is possible.
The good news is this future activity will be missing the
daytime instability that the early evening activity fed off of
in the northwestern zones. Lows tonight will fall back into
the mid to upper 60s and low 70s (mountains upper 50s).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Previous discussion...
The cold front front will continue to progress east Tuesday
with ample dry air advection pushing in. Scattered showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be leftover prior to
12-15z/8am-11am west of I-95 with isolated thunderstorms likely
east of I-95 toward the Eastern Shore early to late Tuesday
afternoon. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) for severe weather
remains in place for locations east of I-95 and over the bay
Tuesday afternoon as the cold front slowly exits the area. Most
of this activity should wrap up between 22-00z/6-8pm Tuesday
evening. Primary threat with isolated storms Tuesday looks to be
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Overall the severe
threat will remain limited with the main forcing well east of
our region. High temperatures Tuesday will slightly cool into
the upper 70s and low 80s (upper 60s mountains) with dewpoints
falling back into the low 60s.

By Tuesday night, weak high pressure will build back over the
region. This will allow westerly downsloping flow across the region
and lowering humidity. Lows Tuesday night will fall back into
the mid to upper 50s and low 60s. Highs Wednesday will climb
into the mid to upper 80s to around 90 as warm downsloping
westerly flow off the mountains continues. Humidity will remain
low with dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the region Thursday begins to slide offshore
Friday. Broad mid-level ridging to the south of our area will likely
bring the first 90F day for many areas. Highs are forecast to be in
the upper 80s to low 90s each day, with mild overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

An active weather pattern looks to return sometime Friday and
persist through the upcoming weekend. A front sags into our area and
stalls through Saturday night. Aloft, a messy shortwave trough
traverses the area, helping to bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. A backdoor front could move into most of MD Sunday as
high pressure builds across the Northeast. Still, we remain in a
moist and unstable airmass and likely see additional rounds of
convection sometime Sunday into the start of next week. The cloud
cover and precip bring our temperatures down, with highs in the 70s
to low 80s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While there could be a strong thunderstorm or heavy shower move
near MRB over the next 2 to 3 hours, most convection should be
hit and miss overnight around any of the terminals, particularly
MRB, IAD, DCA, BWI and MTN. Damaging winds will be the main
threat in and around thunderstorms along with frequent lightning
strikes, locally heavy rainfall. The severe threat will be
reduced at this point with MVFR to IFR BKN to OVC cigs likely as
the front pushes through.

Additional sub-VFR conditions are possible for the first half of
Tuesday as the cold front is slow to exit the area. Showers and
perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will linger across the corridor
and for terminals east of the area. The bulk of this activity will
be during the morning hours with any isolated to scattered
convection staying east of I-95. Dry air advection quickly
races in between 18-22z/2-6pm Tuesday with high pressure
building over the region.

VFR conditions are forecast Thursday and for most of Friday as high
pressure over the area moves offshore. West to northwest winds are
expected Wednesday with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds turn to the south
Thursday while becoming lighter as high pressure is slow to push
offshore. The next cold front moving into the area could bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms sometime Friday into the start
of the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
An SMW or two cannot be ruled out through the remainder of this
evening and overnight as showers and thunderstorms try to make
their way across the Tidal Potomac and parts of the central
Chesapeake Bay. Additional SMWs may be needed for portions of
the waters Tuesday as the cold front passes through. Highest
probability for storms Tuesday will be south of the Bay Bridge.

Favorable marine conditions are forecast to end the week (Wednesday
through Friday) as high pressure over the area moves offshore. An
active weather pattern returns sometime Friday into next weekend
with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Southeast to south winds continue through Tuesday. Elevated tide
levels are expected to continue for at least a few more high tide
cycles. This brings Annapolis close to minor coastal flooding during
the Tuesday morning high tide cycle, with most other locations
reaching Action Stage. After that, a cold front sweeps through and
brings light offshore winds through mid week. Tide levels are
forecast to drop a bit, though Annapolis could still reach Action
Stage through the end of the week.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for MDZ003-501-502.
VA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ027-028-031.
WV...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ050>053-055-
     501>504.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EST
NEAR TERM...KLW/EST
SHORT TERM...EST
LONG TERM...KRR
AVIATION...KLW/KRR/EST
MARINE...KLW/KRR/EST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...EST