622 FXUS61 KLWX 021422 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1022 AM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build over the area through Tuesday, before sliding east Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will remain below normal today, but a quick warming trend will occur mid week, with above normal temperatures expected. A low pressure system will approach the region toward the end of the week, which will be the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No significant changes needed to the forecast. A dry airmass is in place with 0.40 inch precipitable water on the 12Z sounding. Satellite imagery shows a plume of smoke aloft extending across western PA into the mid Ohio Valley, which could tint the sky as the afternoon progresses. Previous discussion: An area of high pressure continues to build towards the region in the wake of this past weekend`s cold front. The trough is very evident on water vapor imagery, and it is still going to have some influence on temperatures today. While we will remain dry, and a bit warmer than yesterday, the trough being nearby will keep us still a few degrees below normal. Highs will reach the lower to middle 70s widespread with cooler temperatures in the mountains. As a ridge begins to move overhead, Monday night`s lows will be several degrees warmer than tonight`s lows and dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. No frost concerns are expected for our mountain zones as a result. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... While Tuesday remains dry due to high pressure, highs will be much warmer on average across the region when compared to Monday`s highs. This is due to the upper-level ridge building across the region, as well as high pressure shifting offshore, turning winds out of the south. Afternoon highs will reach the lower to middle 80s. Tuesday night`s low temperatures will be much milder than Monday night with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s. This pattern will continue into Wednesday, though becoming even warmer. Many areas could even approach 90 degrees, but most will hang around the mid-upper 80s. One big change on Wednesday will be the humidity levels, which jump substantially. While not oppressive by any means, especially for June, it will be much less comfortable than we have seen in a while. Overnight lows on Wednesday will be quite mild, only dropping into the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level ridging over the region is forecast to start break down on Thursday as high pressure at the surface slowly shifts off-shore. Above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies are likely to continue on Thursday with most of the region potentially breaking the 90 degree mark. Model and ensemble guidance has the ridge finally breaking on Friday with a brief zonal flow forecast to settle over the region. Guidance has a split flow over the eastern seaboard with the dominate flow over the plains region and east through the Great Lakes. A weaker southern flow is forecast to be located over the southeast US. A shortwave moving through the northern flow may combine with an increasing unstable environment due to daytime heating to produce some showers and thunderstorms on Friday. A coastal low currently forecast to form along along a weak surface trough along the eastern seaboard may bring additional chances for precipitation to the southern parts of our region. A more widespread threat for showers and strong thunderstorms is favored on Saturday as an upper level trough drops into the NE US with it`s attending cold front approaching the region from the west. The combination of a destabilizing environment due to afternoon heating and warm air advection along with forcing as the cold front passes through the region will lead to an increased threat for strong to severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Models are hinting that the front could stall near our region on Sunday and remain nearby becoming the focus for continued chances of showers and thunderstorms moving into next week. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected through Tuesday night with high pressure in control. Some high elevated smoke from Canadian wildfires may be present off and on throughout the period. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, before becoming light out of the south on Tuesday. VFR conditions and light south winds will prevail Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure slides to the east. A shower or thunderstorm could approach MRB later Thursday as heat and humidity builds. There`s a higher chance for thunderstorms Friday but still uncertainty with how much of the area is affected due to the timing of an approaching frontal boundary. && .MARINE... A few northerly wind gusts of 18-20kt could occur through midday on the middle bay. Thereafter, winds will remain light and variable through Tuesday night as high pressure moves overhead and eventually offshore by late Tuesday. Southerly flow will begin to increase in intensity by Wednesday through Friday with high pressure off the coast. WInds should remain below SCA criteria during the day, as air temps will be much warmer than water temperatures. However, as temperatures cool closer to the water temperatures during the evening and overnight periods, the pattern becomes favorable for southerly channeling along the bay Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights. SCAs may be needed at times during this period. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CJL NEAR TERM...ADS/CJL SHORT TERM...CJL LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...CJL/JMG MARINE...CJL/JMG