837 FXUS61 KGYX 141041 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 641 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moves toward Newfoundland today with a return to drier and warmer conditions as high pressure builds in over New England. A cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, with an upper low influencing conditions into midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 635 AM...Forecast is in good shape this morning, and just tweaked T/Td/Sky based on current obs. A few sprinkles being reported at KRKD/KWVL in the last hour, but these are probably the last gasp from this system, as the skies in the E clear out during this morning. Previously...500 MB low that has been around all this past weekend finally begins to track NE from S of Nova Scotia to Newfoundland today. Between this low and the next one to our west, we will experience a narrow, but high amplitude, ridge today. This will bring a mainly sunny day, with some early clouds in the E, and late cirrus in the W. NW winds will be a little breezy through midday, as the we still have that weakening pres gradient, but winds become lighter during the afternoon. IT will be mild with highs ranging from the 50s in the mtns and on the mid coast, to the low to mid 60s in the S half of NH and interior SW ME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The ridge shifts E this evening, and there may be a chance for a few showers in W NH late this evening, the bulk of this precip holds off until after midnight. Even after midnight, mainly expecting hit and miss SHRA crossing the CWA, mainly in weak WAA at first, and then into the warm sector toward morning, at least aloft, if not at the sfc, given increasing onshore flow. Lows range from the mid to upper 30s in the N and E, where, skies will take longer to become overcast. To the low to mid 40s in the S half of NH, where the clouds and showers will prevent temps from falling that much, and the warmer air begins to move in toward toward daybreak. Initially on Tuesday morning, will see occlusion shift ENE across N zones, so the better chc of showers is here, with maybe a break in the S. But, good chunk of energy dives into the trough equatorward of the 500MB closed low N of the Toronto area, and this will tilt that trough negative, while also developing mid-level FG over central ME and allowing coastal low to develop along the Downeast ME coast. This means more numerous showers or steady rain over the ME mtns and central ME, with some heavier convective showers possible as well during the mid to late afternoon. Across NH and SW ME still can`t rule out some SHRA in the afternoon as this system deepens, but it will also help push the cold front through these areas mid to late afternoon, and should see things dry out quickly in the S behind the front late in the day. Highs range from the upper 40s in the ME mtns and the far E zone, where clouds and more frequent showers persist through the day, to 55-60 in S ME and interior SW NH. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1045 PM Update...No major changes in the extended with the latest NBM guidance. An upper low will be slowly exiting into the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday with mainly upslope rain and mountain snow showers into Thursday morning. Previously... Upper low will be centered just south of James Bay to start Tuesday morning with associated cold front still west of the region. Out ahead of the front, expecting light rain showers and/or drizzle to be around Tuesday morning, but coverage of showers will increase through the afternoon as the cold front begins to push through the area and synoptic scale lift increases. There has been more of a trend in the models in showing the 500mb wave responsible in sending the cold front through taking on a negative tilt, creating a region of strong diffluence and a secondary low developing over western ME. There has resulted in an upward trend in QPF and PoPs, especially over in western ME. Still could see a couple of storms with small hail out of this system as well, mainly across NH, but heavy downpours are possible across most of the region. Rain showers will diminish from west to east during the afternoon and evening, and it`s possible northern areas may see a brief period of snow mix in Tuesday evening. Otherwise, there will be a continued chance of rain and snow showers in the mountains through Tuesday night. The low pressure system lifts into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday and more or less stays put there until late week. This puts the area under broad cyclonic flow with breezy conditions thanks to good mixing and steep low-level lapse rates. Waves rotating around the upper low and low-level upslope flow will lead to rounds of rain or snow showers in the mountains while areas downwind have a lower chance...but still around 20-30% on Wednesday and around 20% on Thursday as Froude numbers do come up somewhat in the afternoon. Temperatures will be mostly in the mid 40s to lower 50s for highs, except a bit cooler in the mountains. The upper low slowly moves east on Friday as high pressure begins to build into New England with temperatures also trending upward and winds not as breezy. The next low pressure will quickly follow though, but it does look the daytime hours stay dry. High temperatures should be back into the 50s for most with some low 60s across southern NH. Although the details of the track and timing of the next low pressure system are a still a bit in question, there is good agreement among the ensembles of the next chance at widespread precipitation over the weekend. The ECWMF continues to be the more progressive with early start and end times while the GFS is in the slower camp, but there is more agreement for the higher precip chances Friday night into Saturday with decreasing PoPs going into Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term...Lingering MVFR cigs should clear out of KAUG by 09Z, and KRKD by mid morning. Otherwise VFR is expected through this evening. MVFR cigs between midnight and daybreak at NH terminal and Tue morning in ME. There could be some periods of IFR Tue morning as well. Improvement to VFR possible late in the day at KLEB/KCON/KMHT/KPSM, but KRKD/KAUG will likely drop to IFR during Tuesday afternoon. Long Term...Expect improvement from west to east through the Tuesday evening. Mostly VFR Wednesday through Friday with a low chance of rain showers downwind of the mountains on Wednesday. The exception will be at HIE, where the potential for MVFR ceilings and rain or snow showers may continue through at least Thursday, and possibly into Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...NW winds pick up a bit this morning, but are expected to fall below SCA levels by this afternoon. Winds seas below SCA conds through Tuesday, but will start to increase Tue afternoon. Long Term...Cold front crosses late Tuesday, and then W to SW winds likely increase to SCA levels Tuesday night as low pressure lifts into the Canadian Maritimes. SCA conditions will probably continue through Wednesday and Thursday as the low stay across the Maritimes, but high pressure may provide a period of improvement Friday and maybe into Saturday, depending on how the speed and track of the next front and low pressure that approach the region sometime next weekend. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Combs/Schroeter AVIATION... MARINE...