596 FXUS61 KGYX 011348 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 948 AM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... While a few showers will be possible in the mountains on Sunday, it will mostly be cool and breezy with wind gusts 25-30 mph. Some showers linger into Monday, but afterward we start to dry out with a significant warm up heading toward the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 940am Update...Light showers continue into the Kennebec Valley and central Maine at this hour, with a trending decrease in reflectivity over the past hour. Based on current temp trends, did lower daytime highs a bit. While the cloud deck has thinned favoring cu across southern areas, mixing of cooler air aloft should limit temps today. To the west, have noted isolated shower development. Profiles aloft are drying, with well mixed surface conditions. Moist layer between would be the source of our cu field and any sprinkles through the afternoon. Will watch these trends and update as needed later this morning. 620 AM Update...Mainly refreshed PoPs with this update as light showers have blossomed again across southern New Hampshire and western Maine as shortwaves continue to pivot through the broader trough. 435 AM Update...Updated the forecast to include a High Surf Advisory for the Maine coastline as long period swell with waves 5-7ft will create dangerous surf conditions and an elevated rip risk today. Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant impacts expected There are still some light scattered showers out there at this hour, but they are quickly decreasing in coverage and expected to be dissipated shortly after sunrise. South of the mountains we will see clouds begin to clear from south to north as vertically stacked low pressure continues to pull away to the northeast. Clouds and even some light showers will stay banked up to the terrain today as a trough stays overhead. A tightening pressure gradient and good mixing will keep gusty winds in the forecast today with soundings supporting 25-30 mph gusts. High temperatures will climb into the 60s south of the mountains where we will see more sun. To the north where it will be cloudier high temperatures will be limited to the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Impacts and Key Messages: * No significant impacts expected Tonight: Tonight starts clear and dry south of the mountains, which would provide a good viewing window of the aurora if it makes an appearance. SWPC is currently forecasting G3 to G4 geomagnetic activity in the 8PM-2AM time frame, so it is a possibility. North of the mountains will be out of luck as continued northwesterly flow keeps clouds and light showers banked up against the terrain. After about 2AM is when clouds and light showers look to begin to sink southward as an upper trough swings through the area. The initially clear skies and dying wind gusts will allow temperatures to fall in to the 40s, with temperatures in the higher terrain in the 30s to the highest peaks getting below freezing, meaning Mt. Washington may get some snow flakes. Monday: Any lingering showers and clouds in the eastern part of the CWA exit in the morning as drier air begins to move in on westerly flow. This will begin our warming trend as high temperatures south of the mountains climb into the upper 60s and low 70s. The immediate coast likely stays a bit cooler with a seabreeze. North of the mountains sees highs more in the low to mid 60s. Daytime heating and a shortwave trough likely contribute to an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon, with skies clearing again heading toward the evening hours. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long Term Update...01z NBM has been blended in to the latest going long term forecast. This results in little change with a significant warm-up still expected mid to late week. Previously... Overview: Upper level low set to remain influencing the region through Monday night as sharpening trough finally pushes off to the east. Mostly dry conditions are then forecast Tuesday through Wednesday night with daytime temperatures increasing into the 80s by midweek. Next system to bring the chance of rain will be later this week as a slow moving frontal boundary approaches and settles over the forecast area. Details: The introduction of anticyclonic flow and drier air aloft Monday night will promote dry conditions overnight into Tuesday, continuing Wednesday. With rain out of the picture early to midweek, attention turns towards temperatures. From daytime highs in the 50s and 60s this weekend, a quick warm up is expected with highs in the 80s forecast Wednesday. Tuesday, behind the exiting trough and ahead of upper moisture, is forecast to be the sunnier of the two. Late week remains warm as slowing cold front passes through the Great Lakes. Still a lot of continuity and coverage uncertainty for rain chances late week. Overall expectation is for this boundary to continue eastward slowly, acting as forcing for showers and periods of rain Thursday into the weekend. With surface high planted off the Southeast coast, flow will align to bring moisture towards the region as well as occasional waves of low pressure. Will continue to monitor rain chances into next weekend, but the current pattern of a rainy Saturday is certainly possible again. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...VFR becomes the prevailing condition for today. HIE may go back to MVFR for a time overnight as showers move through the mountains, but otherwise ceilings should stay up through the day Monday. Today still looks gusty at all terminals today with 20-25 kts possible, increasing through the day. Long Term...VFR ceilings and vis for much of early to mid week. Winds will largely be diurnally driven. Can`t rule out some overnight valley fog for terminals near the CT Valley and western ME mountains through this period. && .MARINE... Short Term...Gusty southwesterly winds 25-30 kts will continue through the day today as low pressure pulls away and they taper off tonight. Seas will slowly calm as well with 5+ ft seas sticking around until at least Monday morning Long Term...Upper trough will sharpen early this week as high pressure builds to the south. This will result in mainly southerly onshore winds through early week. By late week, front will be slowly approaching the region but may not pass through the waters until Friday/Saturday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Baron/Cornwell SHORT TERM...Baron LONG TERM...Cornwell/Ekster