986
FXUS61 KCAR 141000
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
600 AM EDT Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to the south of Nova Scotia will continue to move
away from the region as a narrow ridge of high pressure slowly
builds east late this afternoon into tonight. Low pressure will
approach from the west on Tuesday and slowly cross the area
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update...
Latest radar reflectivity imagery shows precipitation is quickly
diminishing at this hour, as low pressure continues east away
from the region. Only change was to tweak hourly temps/dew
points based on latest observations, otherwise no other changes.

previous discussion
Surface and upper level low pressure will continue to drift east,
and out into the open atlantic waters to the south of Nova Scotia
today. Any lingering rain/snow will continue to diminish through the
early morning hours. High pressure both at the surface and
aloft will slowly build east toward the region this afternoon.
The forecast soundings are showing plenty of moisture remaining
into this afternoon below H8. Thus expecting mainly cloudy skies
today across the region with some clearing developing late in
the day across western areas. Cloud cover and northerly winds
will limit afternoon highs to the low to mid 40s for much of
the area. Ridging at the surface and aloft will briefly build in
this evening, but clouds in advance of the next system will
quickly move back in tonight. A stray rain or snow shower could
move into far western areas toward day break. Lows tonight will
be generally in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain showers will be pushing into the area from the west
Tuesday morning as a skinny ridge of high pressure shifts into
Canada. Eastern areas will likely be dry but cloudy at the start
with showers over the Central Highlands. As boundary pushes
toward the region in the afternoon rain will become more
widespread. Temps climb into the 40s everywhere with flow
remaining serly. Triple point develops mid-late afternoon over
southwestern Maine and with increased lift from sfc convergence,
rainfall will range from 0.25- 0.40 inches across the Central
Highlands down toward the Bangor Region.

Heaviest precip shifts north and east during the evening with
triple point deepening as it shifts into NB. Deepening low in
the LFQ of jet streak will result in qpf amounts between
0.40-0.50 inches over nern zones. As triple point takes over it
will gradually absorb parent low over srn Quebec with weakening
sfc boundary over nrn areas. At the same time synoptic lift
increases in favorable region of jet streak, and with what
little dynamic cooling can occur cannot rule out bursts of snow
over the northeast and the St. John Valley, especially after
midnight Tuesday night.

Sfc low moves twd Newfoundland/labrador on Wednesday with cold front
moving thru in the afternoon. Snow likely to be falling acrs the
north in the morning before becoming rain across all but northwest
areas as highs warm into the u30s over the northwest and mid-upper
40s elsewhere. H5 low will be crossing the CWA in the afternoon with
scattered showers over northern and central areas, continuing into
the evening as upr low pulls into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Temps
will be near normal for highs Wednesday and above normal lows on
Thursday under continued cloudy skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper low will be exiting twd the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday
as H5 ridge builds into the Great Lakes. Rain, mixed with snow
showers, will remain present over the north on Thursday along
with cloudy skies. Tightening pressure gradient during the day
will bring gusty northwest winds into Thursday evening.

Mostly clear skies expected Thursday night with temps dropping
blo freezing acrs the CWA with no precipitation expected. Sfc
and upr level high pressure shifts offshore Friday night. A warm
front will approach the region late Friday night with rain
spreading into the entire area for Saturday. Temps warm well
above normal in warm advection early in the weekend. Cold front
looks to move thru either Saturday night or Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Brief IFR conditions are still possible early this
morning, mainly KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL, in low ceilings and
rain/snow. Otherwise MVFR ceilings expected to persist at the
terminals through early afternoon. Conditions will then improve
to VFR this evening through much of tonight. N wind 10 to 15 kt
today, then decreasing to less than 10 kt tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in rain. E 5-10kts.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain, mixing with snow over northern
terminals with possible LIFR conditions. E 5-10kts becoming W
5-10kts from west to east overnight.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR Downeast, MVFR/IFR north in
rain and show showers. W 5-10kts.

Thursday....MVFR north in rain showers north, VFR elsewhere. NW
10-20kts and gusty.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. WNW 5-15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer
waters through 11 AM EDT this morning. Winds/seas will then
decrease to below SCA levels this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM: Westerly winds will becoming marginal over the outer
waters Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Seas increase above
5ft late Tuesday night over the outer waters and remain elevated
over all waters Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Seas expected
to be above 5ft into Thursday afternoon before dropping through
the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...Buster
Long Term...Buster
Aviation...TWD/Buster
Marine...TWD/Buster