165
FXUS61 KGYX 291041
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
641 AM EDT Fri May 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Issued a Wind Advisory for the New Hampshire seacoast and
southern Maine coast late tonight through Saturday morning.

Snow levels have trended lower tonight into Saturday morning
with winter conditions likely above 2500 ft.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold rainfall and high elevation snow late today into
Saturday morning. Hikers should prepare for winter conditions
above 2500 feet.

2. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected along the New Hampshire
seacoast and southern Maine coast late tonight into Saturday
morning. Gusty winds up to 40 mph are also forecast for this
time period across interior southern New Hampshire through the
Maine Lakes Region.

3. An extended period of cool and unsettled conditions looks
increasingly likely for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

An upper level low will drop south out of Quebec tonight over
New England as a sfc low moves through the Gulf of ME on
Saturday. Scattered showers this afternoon will become a
stratiform rain tonight from northwest to southeast. Rainfall
will then end from north to south on Saturday morning or early
afternoon as northeast winds remain gusty, especially along the
coast. An anomalously cold pool aloft will allow this rain to
fall as wet snow for elevations generally from 2500 ft and above
with potentially dangerous conditions for hikers.

Any early day sun will fade by early this afternoon as the
aforementioned upper level low approaches from the north. High
temperatures will range from the 50s across the north with 60s
further to the south. A few afternoon showers are possible,
mainly across the north and mountains. Steady rainfall will then
arrive towards nightfall with T8s of around -5C allowing for
snow across the higher elevations from roughly 2500 ft and
above. Several inches of snow accumulation is likely with
upwards of a foot possible across the highest elevations in the
White Mountains. This snow combined with wind chill values into
the single digits will create potentially dangerous conditions
for hikers.

In terms of rainfall, generally between 1-1.5" is expected
across far western ME and into eastern NH with 1/2" or less
elsewhere. Rain and mountain snow will then end from north to
south on Saturday morning into the early afternoon. High
temperatures will be into the 40s and 50s with the wind making
it feel colder. Frost is then possible Saturday night as skies
clear and winds relax.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The rapidly deepening low pressure mentioned above will also
develop a potent low level jet along the Gulf of Maine coast as
it cuts towards Cape Cod. As it translates south, the
strengthening NE LLJ orients nearly parallel to the ME coast.
The anomalously cool air mass should allow for unstable lapse
rates in the low levels. This means potential mixing to around
900mb where a 40 to 50 kt jet will be broadening and moving
south during the early Sat morning hours.

This would result in a period of wind gusts 40 to 50 mph for
much of the southern CWA, with greatest confidence in gusts to
50 mph along the Cumberland/York Co coasts in Maine, and the NH
Seacoast. Its reasonable that a few gusts to 50 mph may also
occur into the NH/ME Lakes Region. Ultimately the associated
cold airmass is what is providing the low level instability,
which should include much of the forecast area. However, timing
is then a concern as the jet will be departing these regions as
it strengthens.

Further confidence in this event is given by an impressive EFI
signal > 0.95 and a shift of tails value of 1-2 over the
discussed region. This translates to reasonable ensemble
agreement in an unusual occurrence for this time period (strong
wind gusts). Will continue to monitor trends for any need to
expand wind headlines further inland.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

The next shortwave is expected to arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. This system will take a similar track to Saturday`s event,
and will overall be a less amplified version of it. 850 mb
temperatures will still be anomalously cold for this time of year
(~5C or less). After a dry start to Sunday, can expect showers
to develop during the afternoon, fueled by cold temperatures
aloft as well as a lobe of vorticity swinging in from Quebec.

Into next week, an omega block pattern will keep a firm grip over
the CONUS, with upstream ridging over the Canadian Prairies and
troughing over the Northeast U.S. both remaining in place for the
foreseeable future. For our sensible weather, we will maintain well
below normal 500 mb heights as well as below average 850mb and 500
mb temperatures, albeit not as anomalous as this upcoming weekend.
With a persistent cold pool aloft, combined with the strong June
sun, it will not take much surface heating for diurnally-driven
showers to develop each day. These will be scattered in nature, so
while most of next week has daily precipitation chances, it will not
be raining the entire time at one point, with the best chances for
clearing skies to be at night and during the early morning hours.
Such a pattern generally suggests below normal temperatures, but
with the calender flipping to June, temperatures should still be
tolerable for outdoor activities.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...VFR conditions this morning and early
afternoon with NW winds of 5-15 kts and a few scattered showers.
MVFR to IFR cigs arrive late this afternoon to evening into
Saturday morning with more widespread and persistent RA. A few
embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across NH to southern
ME this evening.

Northeast winds will be increasing through the night and into
early Sat morning as a 50 kt low level jet develops towards the
coast. Southern terminals will see gusts 15 to 25 kts overnight,
nearing 30 to 40 kts along the coast towards daybreak Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday: NE winds increase 25 to 30 kts, with gusts as high as
40 kt for PWM/PSM Saturday morning. RA continues, exiting south
through the afternoon. This should lead a trend to VFR by Sat
evening.

Sunday-Monday: VFR gives way to showers and at least periods of
MVFR conditions.

Monday night-Wednesday: Periods of MVFR with showers are
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through today. Low
pressure dropping southeast through the Gulf of Maine tonight
into Saturday will bring a period of northeast Gales with seas
quickly building to 7-10 feet. This system exits southeast
Saturday afternoon with north winds relaxing while seas remain
elevated into Saturday night.

An unsettled pattern brings multiple small low pressure systems
through the waters Sunday through midweek. These lows bring
changing conditions and shifting winds as they pass and deepen
offshore. The best chance for at least periods of SCA conditions
look to be late Sunday through Monday, and then late Tuesday
through Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ023-024.
NH...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for NHZ014.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152>154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ151.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ180-182-184.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Barker/Cornwell/Tubbs
AVIATION...Cornwell