805 FXUS61 KCAR 131031 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 631 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region through the weekend as low pressure remains to our South. The high will move east early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Patchy stratocumulus clouds crossing the region this morning. Current temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s north and mid 50s for the Bangor region and Downeast. No major changes with this update. previous discussion Northwest flow surface and aloft will continue across the region today. High pressure centered to the south of Hudson Bay will slowly build east through tonight. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies across northern areas and mainly sunny skies for the Bangor region and Downeast. Afternoon high temperatures today will be below normal for this time of year. Expect highs to range from the low to mid 60s north and upper 60s for central and downeast areas. Surface high will stretch northwest to southeast across the region tonight. Weakening surface pressure gradient will result in light wind tonight. This will allow for the potential for radiational cooling conditions tonight, especially in the normally colder valleys of the north, where patchy frost is possible. Ensemble mean cloud cover shows the potential for at least some high clouds, and this might just be enough limit widespread frost from occurring. For that reason, coupled with the much shorter nights this time of year, decided to hold off on any frost headlines for the north tonight. Still expecting lows to fall into the mid 30s with some patchy frost possible in the colder northern valleys. Thicker cloud cover is expected across central and Downeast areas, including the Bangor region, with lows in the mid to upper 40s expected there. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday... Models have mostly locked in on a more southerly track for a system for Saturday morning, and are weaker with this system. What this means is that there is only a chance (30 to 50 percent) of light rain only from Bangor to the coast. If it does rain in these areas, totals should be less than a tenth of an inch and be done by afternoon. And there`s a good chance there won`t be any rain at all. Other than the potential for AM light rain, looking like a quiet Saturday with partly/mostly cloudy skies, light winds, and highs in the mid to upper 60s. Saturday Night through Sunday Night... Quiet weather with surface high pressure over the Gulf of Maine leading to low-level SW flow over the area, with flat mid/upper level W/NW flow. Generally dry with just a slight (20 percent) chance of a shower, primarily Sunday afternoon but also possibly Sunday night. Skies generally partly cloudy. Lows in the mid to upper 40s Saturday night and Sunday night, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday, which will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Gradual warming trend Monday through Thursday, with dewpoints also gradually rising as well. Look for mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances to return possibly Monday/Tuesday, and more likely Wednesday/Thursday as a cold front and upper level trough begin to approach from the west. There`s a lot of uncertainty in the timing of the next upper trough/cold front, which could come through anywhere from Wednesday night to early Friday. Before the trough/cold front comes through, the potential exists for a day or two of decent thunderstorm activity. There`s also a fair amount of uncertainty as to how warm it gets before the cold frontal passage. Potential exists for over 80 degrees inland, but don`t anticipate anything near 90. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals through tonight. NW wind 10 to 15 kt with G20kt this afternoon, then light and variable 5 kt or less tonight. SHORT TERM: Saturday...VFR in the north. Further south toward BHB/BGR, either VFR or MVFR in the morning, with odds favoring VFR ceilings over MVFR. Likely VFR areawide for the afternoon. Light winds. Saturday Night and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Winds light and variable Saturday night, becoming SW 5-10 kts Sunday. Sunday Night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR north of BGR. However, BGR and especially BHB will be susceptible to IFR ceilings in the overnight and early morning hours, with generally VFR conditions in the afternoons. Also, can`t rule out localized MVFR from any afternoon showers primarily inland, with an isolated storm also possible Tuesday. S-SW winds 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below advisory levels through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through this weekend and into early next week. Wave heights 1 to 2 feet this weekend, building to 2 to 4 feet early next week. Fog possible over the waters from Sunday night onward. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...TWD/Foisy Marine...TWD/Foisy