997 FXUS61 KCAR 020343 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1143 PM EDT Sun Jun 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue north through Quebec tonight through Monday. High pressure will cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday. A cold front will begin to cross the region Thursday, then stall Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 11:40 PM Update...Low clouds have now spread across central areas. The north remains mostly cloudy. Added clouds to central areas but backed off on precip coverage over the north with only a few faint echoes. Also raisted temps a degree or two across the area with the clouds limiting cooling. Previous Discussion... The exiting low pressure system will continue to move off to the NNE tonight. High res models show the remaining moisture with the system will wrap around the low and into the north of Maine throughout the night. Upper air model soundings show the surface starting to dry out with a moist mid layer. Thus decided to keep rain showers at isolated to scattered. Breezy SW winds will decrease throughout the night with cloud cover keeping temps in the 40s. For Monday, mid level vorticity models show a slight trof as the end of the low pressure moves through. This trof will bring scattered to isolated showers to the area for the morning, then quickly decreasing in the afternoon. The north will see the most amount of isolated showers for the day. The south will see gradually clearing skies. This will bump temps into the low 60s in the south. Cloud cover will keep temps in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface ridging builds Monday night, while upper level troffing persists. Expect partly cloudy skies early Monday night, with also a slight chance of a lingering evening shower across mostly northern areas. Mostly clear skies are then expected overnight with building high pressure. Dependent on how rapidly clouds dissipate, could have patchy frost in the normally coldest locations across northern Maine later Monday night. Low level moisture from recent rains could also help support patchy fog. Surface/upper level ridging is expected Tuesday into Wednesday with generally mostly clear skies. Also, smoke from Canadian wildfires could begin to reach the region later Tuesday into Wednesday with the building upper ridge. Temperatures will warm Tuesday through Wednesday, reaching much above normal levels across much of the region Wednesday. The coolest temperatures Tuesday/Wednesday will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds from the cooler waters of the Gulf of Maine. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front will begin to approach later Wednesday night with a chance of showers across mostly northern/central areas. The cold front will begin to cross the region Thursday, though the timing is still uncertain. Expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region Thursday in advance of the front. The extent and strength of thunderstorms will be dependent on the eventual timing of the front. The cold front should stall in the vicinity of Downeast Maine Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure tracking along the stalled front could begin to approach the region later Friday. Expect a chance of showers across the region Friday. Low pressure should impact the region Saturday, though the track is still uncertain. The low should bring rain Saturday, with amounts dependent on the eventual track. Models are in better agreement that the low should exit Sunday. However, dependent on how rapidly the low exits a chance of showers could persist into Sunday. Above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday/Sunday. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Mainly MVFR cigs for tonight and Monday. Low VFR possible south of FVE this evening. IFR likely at FVE late tonight into Monday. SW winds 5-10 kts, gusting to 20 kts early this evening. Downeast Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions tonight and Monday. Brief MVFR possible at BGR early Monday AM, but confidence is low. SW winds 5-10 kts. SHORT TERM: Monday night...Generally VFR. However, variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Slight chance of a shower early north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest Tuesday. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night, then 10 to 15 knots Wednesday. Wednesday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of showers. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday...Variable conditions with showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Thursday night ...Variable conditions with any thunderstorms early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory for all waters tonight and Monday morning due to seas 5-9 ft. Seas will decrease Monday afternoon below SCA levels. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Monday night through Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer/Clark/LaFlash Short Term...Norcross Long Term...Norcross Aviation...Bloomer/Clark/LaFlash/Norcross Marine...Bloomer/Clark/LaFlash/Norcross