392
FXUS61 KCAR 111758
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
158 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today. A cold front approaches this
evening and crosses the region late tonight into Thursday. High
pressure will cross the region Friday. Low pressure will track
south of the region Saturday. High pressure will build in again
by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
2 PM Update... Update to aviation section only. See below.

Previous Discussion...
West to southwest flow will be in place across the region
today. Cold front across Quebec slowly moves toward the region
but remains well to our north and west through this afternoon.
Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today along with much milder
afternoon high temperatures. There will also be a gusty breeze
at times this afternoon. A few hundred joules of surface based
cape is expected to develop across the far north by afternoon
with some cooling in the mid levels. Cant totally rule an
isolated shower or storm across the far north late this
afternoon, but think most activity will remain north and west of
the international border through much of the afternoon. Highs
this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s across the
region.

A short wave from Quebec and surface cold front approaches this
evening, and then crosses the region late tonight. This feature
will be accompanied by a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the Katahdin region. The
best chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
across the North Maine Woods and St. John valley region.
Otherwise, expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies for the
Bangor region and Downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday...
The area will be in a cooler post-frontal airmass behind the
cold front that passes through late Wednesday night. However,
it will still be relatively unstable in the cooler airmass
during the day Thursday, and a shortwave trough/vort max will be
moving through especially in the north, making for a showery
day mainly in the north. Could be just unstable enough for a
slight chance of thunder, and added this into the forecast for
the northern half of the area. Models/ensembles generally have
200-500 J/kg of CAPE, and if the higher side of this comes
through, the showers could build up just enough for some
thunder. Small hail is also a possibility thanks to cold air
aloft, but no concern for any severe storms. PoPs in the north
for Thursday are 40-60 percent. Temperatures will be cooler than
Wednesday especially in the north, with highs in the mid/upper
60s north and upper 70s toward the coast. Should be quite
breezy from the northwest too, with gusts around 30 mph. Went
higher than NBM for winds, as NBM tends to be too low on breezy,
well mixed days like this.

Thursday Night and Friday...
High pressure gradually builds in from the northwest, with
clearing and drying. Could still be a couple leftover showers
Thursday evening, but these will quickly dissipate. Lows
Thursday night in the low 40s to low 50s, with highs Friday in
the low 60s north and upper 60s south. Dry air, with dewpoints
down into the 30s to low 40s on Friday, will make for a
refreshing airmass.

Friday Night...
Model agreement begins to drop off late Friday night regarding
an incoming system/possible rain event from the west.
Models/ensembles were trending wetter/further north with the
late Friday night/Saturday system, but 0z ensembles have
strongly shifted back south. Either way, should at least be some
increasing clouds over southern portions of the area later
Friday night, but amount of rain late Friday night is very much
in question. Could be rather cool over the north, with lows in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As mentioned above, lots of uncertainty with the Saturday system
and how far north the rain gets. Rain looks like a pretty safe
bet south of our area, but it`s very much in question for us.
Rain chances are best for Downeast. Going for generally about a
50 percent chance of rain Downeast and 20-35 percent in the
north. Undercut NBM PoPs some, as 0z ensembles came in quite a
bit drier and NBM hadn`t incorporated this drying trend yet.
Also, by undercutting NBM PoPs, kept continuity with existing
forecast to keep from waffling too much. One interesting
observation is that the EC AIFS has consistently been further
south/drier for Saturday, while the EC/EC ensembles have been
much more inconsistent with some runs having a wetter solution.
Regardless, will be interesting to see how Saturday turns out,
and whether the never-ending streak of wet Saturdays will
continue for Downeast and the Bangor Region.

Sunday through early Tuesday looks generally dry with ridging
building into the region, with a bit of a warming trend with
temperatures returning to around average Monday/Tuesday. Some
uncertainty in the strength of the ridge and thus how warm
temperatures will be, but most models at least have mostly dry
conditions Sunday to early Tuesday. Shower chances begin to
increase again late Tuesday into Wednesday, but a lot of
uncertainty as to how much chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected to continue at all terminals
this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cant be totally ruled
out of vicinity KFVE after 18z, but confidence is way too low to
include in TAF. SW wind 10 to 15 kt with G25 kt today.

VFR this evening all terminals. MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL mainly after 06Z but did not have the
confidence to include it in the TAF. Isolated thunderstorms
cannot totally be ruled out, but again low confidence, so no
mention in TAFs. S wind 5 to 10 Kt becoming W toward daybreak
Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...Generally VFR Thursday, but can`t rule out AM MVFR
ceilings in the north. Also, midday/afternoon there will be some
showers and perhaps a storm, mainly in the north, which could
briefly bring MVFR conditions though VFR will be more common.
Breezy with W/NW winds around 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts.

Thursday Night through Friday Night...Mainly VFR, though can`t
totally rule out brief MVFR ceilings in the north Thursday
night. Winds NW 5-15 kts, becoming light Friday night.

Saturday...Significant uncertainty especially BGR/BHB, with
potential for rain and MVFR/IFR, but just as good of a chance of
VFR depending on if rain makes it this far north. Northern TAF
sites likely to be VFR either way on Saturday. Light winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday...Generally VFR with winds fairly
light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A few gusts up to 25 Kt are possible late this
afternoon through tonight with seas building to near 5 FT.
Otherwise, winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through
tonight. Patchy fog will reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM early
this morning, then becoming unlimited through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas near or just below small craft levels
Thursday morning. Holding off on a small craft advisory for now,
but will watch. Then, high confidence in below small craft from
late Thursday through Sunday. Minimal threat of fog over the
waters.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/Melanson
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...TWD/Melanson/Foisy
Marine...TWD/Melanson/Foisy