355 FXUS61 KCAR 022106 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 506 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region tonight into Wednesday. A cold front will cross the area Thursday afternoon. High pressure will return on Friday. Next low pressure system approaches Friday evening. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level troffing will begin to move east of the region tonight. A disturbance moving through the trof will help keep isolated/scattered showers across the region this evening. Showers will then end with the disturbance exiting and loss of diurnal heating. Partly/mostly cloudy skies will persist early tonight, with clouds then decreasing overnight. Lingering low level moisture from recent rains could also help support patchy fog late tonight. With decreasing clouds and light winds overnight, patchy frost is possible in the normally coldest locations across northwest areas late tonight. High pressure builds across the region, surface/aloft, Tuesday. Expect mostly sunny skies Tuesday. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the mid 30s to around 40 north, to around 40 to the lower 40s Downeast. High temperatures Tuesday will generally range from the lower to mid 70s across much of the forecast area, while ranging through the 60s to around 70 along the Downeast coast with developing onshore winds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure system in the middle of the Atlantic stalls as a high pressure off the Carolina coast continues ridging in the the New England area Wednesday night, bringing overnight clear skies and dry conditions. Lack of clouds could bring a period of radiational cooling that could help temperatures to drop down into the 40s/low 50s. Few clouds move in Wednesday, making most of the area partially cloudy, helping high temperatures to rise into the 80s in the north and 70s along the coast due to the southerly sea breeze. Winds become relatively gusty later on Wednesday evening. Overnight lows on Wednesday in the 60s up north and 50s along the coast. Thursday, smoke models indicate some smoke from Canadian wildfires may make its way over to Maine, but at relatively high levels (roughly 6000ft). Not currently expecting visibility or air quality issues, but the smoke may help reduce high temperatures. Looking at daytime maximum temperatures in the 80s, and 70s along the coast due to sea breeze. Main concern in the short term period is a low pressure with associated frontal system moving through Thursday morning through the afternoon. Rain moves in from the northwest to southeast. Heaviest rainfall amounts forecast to be in northern and central counties. Current model guidance does show some favorable instability alongside this frontal passage. Both the GFS and the NAM indicate favorable CAPE, DCAPE, high moisture content, and lift parameters, conducive towards thunderstorm development. Could be period of heavy rain and good thunderstorms. Too early to have much confidence in the severity of these storms, but the general trend for the past few days has been an increase in favorable parameters, so there is a potential for some severe weather. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure moves out to the Atlantic, with a brief period of ridging early Friday morning. This does not last however, as yet another weekend low system barrels towards New England, bringing rain and overcast skies Saturday into Sunday. High pressure moves into the area on Monday. High temperatures drop down into the 70s and high-60s during the weekend, with overnight lows decreasing throughout the weekend into the low-50s. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR early tonight with isolated to scattered showers ending this evening. Variable conditions with patchy fog late tonight. Otherwise, VFR overnight. VFR Tuesday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Tuesday night Wednesday...VFR conditions. Winds from the S at 5-10kts. Gusts up to 20 kt possible during the day Wednesday. Potential for LLWS Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Wednesday night...VFR conditions early. VFR/MVFR late as showers move in from the NW. Winds from the S at 5-10kts. Thursday...VFR/MVFR conditions in light rain. Some potential for IFR conditions in heavier rain showers and thunderstorms. Moderate chance for thunderstorms on station at northern sites. Winds from the S/SW at 5-10 kts. Thursday night ...VFR/MVFR conditions due to lingering rain showers. Possible thunderstorms early evening. Winds from the W/NW at 5-20 kts. Friday...VFR conditions early, becoming MVFR due to some light rain showers in the evening. Winds from the NW, shifting to the SW, at 5-10kt. Friday night - Saturday... MVFR conditions due to rain showers. Rain could be heavy at times. Winds light and variable before becoming N/NE at 5-10 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the rest of the week into the weekend. Seas stay at or below 4 ft over the outer waters, and at or below 3 ft for the inner waters. Seas approach 5 ft over the outer waters on Sunday. Potential for rain on Thursday into Thursday night, as well as Saturday into Sunday. Winds from the SW Tuesday night, before becoming S by Wednesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Norcross Short Term...Brennan Long Term...Brennan Aviation...Norcross/Brennan Marine...Norcross/Brennan