392 FXUS61 KCAR 111758 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 158 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today. A cold front approaches this evening and crosses the region late tonight into Thursday. High pressure will cross the region Friday. Low pressure will track south of the region Saturday. High pressure will build in again by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 2 PM Update... Update to aviation section only. See below. Previous Discussion... West to southwest flow will be in place across the region today. Cold front across Quebec slowly moves toward the region but remains well to our north and west through this afternoon. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies today along with much milder afternoon high temperatures. There will also be a gusty breeze at times this afternoon. A few hundred joules of surface based cape is expected to develop across the far north by afternoon with some cooling in the mid levels. Cant totally rule an isolated shower or storm across the far north late this afternoon, but think most activity will remain north and west of the international border through much of the afternoon. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid to upper 70s across the region. A short wave from Quebec and surface cold front approaches this evening, and then crosses the region late tonight. This feature will be accompanied by a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the Katahdin region. The best chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will be across the North Maine Woods and St. John valley region. Otherwise, expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies for the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday... The area will be in a cooler post-frontal airmass behind the cold front that passes through late Wednesday night. However, it will still be relatively unstable in the cooler airmass during the day Thursday, and a shortwave trough/vort max will be moving through especially in the north, making for a showery day mainly in the north. Could be just unstable enough for a slight chance of thunder, and added this into the forecast for the northern half of the area. Models/ensembles generally have 200-500 J/kg of CAPE, and if the higher side of this comes through, the showers could build up just enough for some thunder. Small hail is also a possibility thanks to cold air aloft, but no concern for any severe storms. PoPs in the north for Thursday are 40-60 percent. Temperatures will be cooler than Wednesday especially in the north, with highs in the mid/upper 60s north and upper 70s toward the coast. Should be quite breezy from the northwest too, with gusts around 30 mph. Went higher than NBM for winds, as NBM tends to be too low on breezy, well mixed days like this. Thursday Night and Friday... High pressure gradually builds in from the northwest, with clearing and drying. Could still be a couple leftover showers Thursday evening, but these will quickly dissipate. Lows Thursday night in the low 40s to low 50s, with highs Friday in the low 60s north and upper 60s south. Dry air, with dewpoints down into the 30s to low 40s on Friday, will make for a refreshing airmass. Friday Night... Model agreement begins to drop off late Friday night regarding an incoming system/possible rain event from the west. Models/ensembles were trending wetter/further north with the late Friday night/Saturday system, but 0z ensembles have strongly shifted back south. Either way, should at least be some increasing clouds over southern portions of the area later Friday night, but amount of rain late Friday night is very much in question. Could be rather cool over the north, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As mentioned above, lots of uncertainty with the Saturday system and how far north the rain gets. Rain looks like a pretty safe bet south of our area, but it`s very much in question for us. Rain chances are best for Downeast. Going for generally about a 50 percent chance of rain Downeast and 20-35 percent in the north. Undercut NBM PoPs some, as 0z ensembles came in quite a bit drier and NBM hadn`t incorporated this drying trend yet. Also, by undercutting NBM PoPs, kept continuity with existing forecast to keep from waffling too much. One interesting observation is that the EC AIFS has consistently been further south/drier for Saturday, while the EC/EC ensembles have been much more inconsistent with some runs having a wetter solution. Regardless, will be interesting to see how Saturday turns out, and whether the never-ending streak of wet Saturdays will continue for Downeast and the Bangor Region. Sunday through early Tuesday looks generally dry with ridging building into the region, with a bit of a warming trend with temperatures returning to around average Monday/Tuesday. Some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge and thus how warm temperatures will be, but most models at least have mostly dry conditions Sunday to early Tuesday. Shower chances begin to increase again late Tuesday into Wednesday, but a lot of uncertainty as to how much chances increase. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected to continue at all terminals this afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cant be totally ruled out of vicinity KFVE after 18z, but confidence is way too low to include in TAF. SW wind 10 to 15 kt with G25 kt today. VFR this evening all terminals. MVFR or lower possible in -SHRA KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL mainly after 06Z but did not have the confidence to include it in the TAF. Isolated thunderstorms cannot totally be ruled out, but again low confidence, so no mention in TAFs. S wind 5 to 10 Kt becoming W toward daybreak Thursday. SHORT TERM: Thursday...Generally VFR Thursday, but can`t rule out AM MVFR ceilings in the north. Also, midday/afternoon there will be some showers and perhaps a storm, mainly in the north, which could briefly bring MVFR conditions though VFR will be more common. Breezy with W/NW winds around 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Thursday Night through Friday Night...Mainly VFR, though can`t totally rule out brief MVFR ceilings in the north Thursday night. Winds NW 5-15 kts, becoming light Friday night. Saturday...Significant uncertainty especially BGR/BHB, with potential for rain and MVFR/IFR, but just as good of a chance of VFR depending on if rain makes it this far north. Northern TAF sites likely to be VFR either way on Saturday. Light winds. Saturday Night and Sunday...Generally VFR with winds fairly light and variable. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A few gusts up to 25 Kt are possible late this afternoon through tonight with seas building to near 5 FT. Otherwise, winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through tonight. Patchy fog will reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM early this morning, then becoming unlimited through tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds/seas near or just below small craft levels Thursday morning. Holding off on a small craft advisory for now, but will watch. Then, high confidence in below small craft from late Thursday through Sunday. Minimal threat of fog over the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...TWD/Melanson Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...TWD/Melanson/Foisy Marine...TWD/Melanson/Foisy