752 FXUS61 KGYX 081824 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 224 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A weak cold front crosses the area this afternoon and evening providing the forcing for showers and storms. Chances for afternoon showers and storms stay in the forecast through the Thursday. High pressure will bring a dry period Friday into the weekend with increasing temperatures. Shower activity and possible heat returns the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The focus today continues to be on developing showers and thunderstorms along a slow moving cold front into southwest Maine and Southeast New Hampshire. Storms have already started developing over the last couple hours with very heavy rainfall rates. So far storms have remained relatively small in size and have continued moving, helping to limit rainfall totals. The concern remains for repeat storms and slow moving storms associated with the slow moving frontal boundary. The front currently extends from around Biddeford, west of Sebago Lake, and then east of Fryeburg. As the front continues to slowly move southwestward, storms are expected to continue to fire into towns to the south and west into Southeast New Hampshire. Further ahead of this front, heat indices have reached the mid 90s across southern New Hampshire and the Seacoast. The heat continue through the afternoon, before the front moves through tonight. The front continues to slowly press southward through the overnight hours tonight. Showers and storms likely continue to develop along and north of the boundary through the overnight hours. Southwest Maine and southern New Hampshire continue to be the focus for the flash flood risk through the overnight hours with these storms, with the threat of repeat storms through the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cooler conditions settle in behind the front for tomorrow, with most spots topping out in the 70s. Some low to mid 80s are likely reserved for the Connecticut River Valley. Behind the front, pop up showers and mainly cloudy conditions prevail most of the day. Scattered shower coverage increases during the afternoon hours, especially across the higher terrain. Along the coast, more low clouds are likely with an easterly flow. Showers decrease in coverage Wednesday night, but some scattered showers are likely to continue through the overnight hours. Temperatures cool more than the last few night, with lows dipping into the low to mid 60s in most locations. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Impacts and Key Messages: * Summer pattern with periods of showers and thunderstorms * No strong signals for any significant severe or flash flooding thunderstorms at this time. Pattern will consist of a progressive zonal flow with two mid-level shortwave troughs expected to cross north of the region through this forecast period. Thursday into the evening the first organized trough will cross the region sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. PWAT values could surge to 1.5" across the area, but storm motion should be sufficient to mitigate flash flood concerns. Effective Bulk Shear looks minimal also, so severe threat doesn`t seem anything above marginal as worst case at this time. Front is expect clear the area by Friday morning with some lingering daytime instability showers possible in the mountains, but westerly flow is expected. Ridging is expected for most of the weekend with building heat once again, but looking dry at this point for Saturday. The second shortwave trough will approach the area by late Sunday, with some timing difference is the ensemble guidance. There is a chance for thunderstorms late Sunday, but timing of this feature is plus or minus 18hrs at this point, so will see how things trend. Overall looks like a descent summer weekend, albeit a little warm. Shower activity chances and heat likely to build the beginning the next week as temperatures trend back above normal for the heart of summer. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Scattered showers and storms continue this afternoon and evening. Probs remain low at most terminals, with PWM most likely to see another shower. Ceilings lower tonight with IFR in most locations with some fog also possible. MVFR ceilings prevail on Wednesday, with some showers also possible at times. IFR to MVFR ceilings prevail Tuesday with some fog also possible. Long Term...Fog formation is possible Wednesday night leading to LIFR conditions as rich low level moisture remains in the area. Cloud cover could limit this development threat. Showers and thunderstorms expected on Thursday with clearing for Friday through Saturday with VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA levels as a cold front slowly moves southward across the waters tonight. Areas of fog are likely to continue into Tuesday. Long Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA conditions through this period. Will have to watch for fog development chances Wednesday night with NE onshore flow. Thunderstorms are possible over the coastal water Thursday evening. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ010-012>014. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dumont NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Clair LONG TERM...Dumont AVIATION...Clair MARINE...Clair