233
FXUS61 KCAR 230621
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
121 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area this morning will move to the east this
afternoon. Low pressure will approach tonight. The low will
redevelop off the coast on Wednesday with an inverted trough
extending northwest onto the Mid-Maine coast. High pressure will
return Wednesday night. A weak occlusion will cross the area
Thursday followed by high pressure Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure over the area will bring a tranquil but cold day today
with a partly cloudy sky giving way to increasing clouds from the
southwest this afternoon.

Low pressure will slide east from the Great Lakes tonight with
secondary low pressure forming well off the coast. As the secondary
low takes over late tonight, a sharp inverted trough, squeezed
between high pressure to our northeast and high pressure to our
west, will form and extend back toward the Mid-Coast of Maine. This
trough will provide focus for a moderate to heavy snowfall Midcoast
with amounts quickly dropping off to the northeast where the high
over Eastern Canada will suppress precipitation. There remains some
uncertainty exactly where that inverted trough will set up with some
of the guidance having it further south toward Southwestern Maine
and others up closer to Penobscot bay. This will ultimately
determine how close up into our region heavy snow occurs. Advisories
will remain up for our southwestern zones, and a winter storm watch
for Southern Hancock which may be in the edge of the heavier snow.
Most of the snow is expected from late tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Travel on I-95 southwest of Bangor is expected to be
hazardous tonight with very poor visibility in locally heavy snow.

The snow will continue into Wednesday morning, tapering off late
morning to midday as the low pulls away and the inverted trough
slides off the coast. Otherwise, Wednesday will be cloudy,
transitioning to partly cloudy with high pressure building over.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...
1) Gusty northwest winds Thursday night will produce wind chills
approaching -20F north as bitter cold air moves in from Canada

Key Message 1...
Cold front moves through Thursday afternoon, bringing snow
showers to the region on Christmas. These snow showers will
produce a quick 0.5 inch of accumulation as they move through
the area. Strong northwest winds will funnel in cold air in the
wake of fropa. Temperatures will drop to below zero over the
northwest and into the single digits elsewhere. Low deepens over
the Maritimes and with 1035 mb sfc high building into Quebec
overnight pressure gradient will strengthen. Low-level jet
increases throughout the overnight to 35-40kts around 900mb.
Top of the mixed layer progged to be around this same level so
expect that winds along the higher terrain should be able to
gust to near 40mph.

As a result, expect wind chill temps to drop to near negative 20
degrees by Friday morning across the north. Wind chill temps
over Downeast likely to drop toward negative 10 degrees. Cannot
rule out the need for a Cold Weather Advisory across the north
and west late Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...
1) Potential Significant Winter Storm late weekend into early
next week
2) Bitter Cold Friday Night

Key Message 1...
A significant winter storm may impact the area beginning on Sunday and
continuing into Monday. Upr level ridge will build in briefly Saturday
ahead of digging upper low dropping into the upper Midwest late in the
weekend. Guidance showing potential transfer of energy offshore and
intensifying Sunday night. When and where this occurs is uncertain at
this time and will play a role in determining ptypes. 00z CMC around
12 to 18 hours slower than 00z GFS/EC but is still indicating a
significant storm early next week.

Key Message 2...
Bitter cold air continues to pour in from Canada Friday night. Low temps
approach negative 10 acrs the North Woods with below zero over remainder
of the north and low single digits for Downeast. High clouds moving in from
system developing off of the mid-Atlantic coast looks to prevent temps
from bottoming out but if skies remain clear cannot rule out mins dropping
into the negative teens with high pressure cresting over the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
VFR conditions are expected today. Light and variable wind
becoming light E. VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR south tonight
and dropping to MVFR north late tonight. E wind 5 to 10 kt. IFR
south and MVFR north on Wednesday, improving to VFR north and
MVFR south late. NE wind becoming N.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...Mainly VFR though Downeast terminals
may see MVFR early. Northern terminals diminishing toward MVFR late
in light -shsn. Light N becoming light SW late.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in light snow showers all terminals. Light SW becoming
WNW 5-15kts in the afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts to 25kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NNW 5kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today, then increase to a gale
over the offshore waters and a SCA for the intracoastal waters
tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will gradually diminish
Wednesday afternoon. Seas around 2 ft today building to 8 ft
tonight then backing off to 6 ft by late Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will be decreasing and eventually  fall
below SCA levels Wednesday evening. Winds increase once again
toward gale force, mainly over the outer waters, with northwest
winds kicking in following fropa Thursday evening. Winds will
remain elevated through Friday morning before dropping below SCA
levels on Friday evening. No headlines expected Friday night
and Saturday under high pressure.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EST
     Wednesday for MEZ010-015-016-031.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning
     for MEZ029.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...MB
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...MB/21
Marine...MB/21