061
FXUS61 KCAR 231734
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1234 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest south of the area today. Low pressure
will approach tonight and track along the coast on Tuesday. High
pressure will slowly build down from the northwest Wednesday
through the end of the week and crest over the area this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12:34PM Update...Minor tweaks to account for sky conditions with
increasing high clouds. Adjusted temperatures to following the
diurnal curve trends. Radar echos in Canada crossing into the
North Woods is mainly virga, it will take till later today for
the boundary layer to moisten up. No other changes...

Previous discussion...
High pressure cresting south of the region with bring another
cold, but more tranquil day today with sunshine giving way to
increasing high clouds this afternoon.

Our focus tonight turns to a small low pressure system
approaching from the Eastern Great Lakes region. This is a fast
moving low supported by an open shortwave trough digging down
from Western Quebec. The low will spread snow across the area
beginning around midnight and continuing into the early morning
hours Tuesday. Most of the snowfall will be over the Downeast
region supported by surface convergence along the track of the
low and nearer to the moisture source. Lighter snow will fall
over the north. By dawn Tuesday morning, an inch or two will
have fallen across the north with up to 3 inches over southern
areas. This will be all snow, all the way to the coast, and the
snow will be very light and fluffy with snow ratios of around
1" of snow to .05" of QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak surface low pressure will track across the Gulf of Maine
Tuesday as an upper trough digs into northern Maine from Quebec. The
surface and upper lows are expected to move east of Nova Scotia
by 12Z Wednesday, and drift south or southeast during the day
Wednesday. Riding both surface and aloft will begin to build
into the region from the west on Wednesday.

Snow will taper off from northwest to southeast across the FA during
the day Tuesday. The snow should end north of the Katahdin
Region by noon, but may continue in Washington County until
early evening.

Snow showers may continue into Christmas Eve Downeast with dry
weather to the north. Christmas day looks tranquil with dry
weather along with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A prolonged stretch of quiet weather expected from the middle
of the week and into next weekend. A blocking pattern develops
with ridging surface and aloft building into New England. The
air mass aloft warms with time with 925H temperatures expected
to be above freezing by Friday. Dry weather is expected through
the period with the main challenges given the time of year
cloud cover and temperatures.

Inversions are expected each day, and the amount of cloud cover will
play a big role in temperatures, especially at night.  Large
temperature differences are also expected to develop from sheltered
valleys to hills.  Whether a day is bright and sunny or ends up
mainly cloudy with stratocu is always a challenge this time of
year, and can play havoc with temperatures.

The best chance of bright sunshine will be Downeast, with the
best chance of more clouds in the north; but it is quite
possible that one or more days that it is also bright and sunny
north. Highs will mostly be in the 20s north and 30s south. Lows
will be very depended on cloud cover with potential busts of 20
to 30 degrees (F), so for now will play things very middle of
the road.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today
into this evening. Conditions will lower to MVFR soon after
midnight then drop to IFR in snow late tonight. Winds light W
today then light S tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Tue: IFR in snow will likely give way to MVFR by afternoon as
the snow ends. N wind 5 to 10 knots.

Tues night: MVFR will likely improve to VFR, but local MVFR possible
at the Aroostook terminals.  N wind 5 to 10 knots

Wed thru Fri: VFR, although MVFR is possible at the northern
terminals in any stratocu, but forecaster confidence on
potential MVFR is low. Light N/NW wind through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today into early this
evening, then increase to SCA over the offshore waters late this
evening through overnight in SW winds gusting up to 25 kt. Seas
will build up to 5 ft in response so the southwesterly
overnight.

SHORT TERM: A small craft advisory may be required for wind on Tuesday
night for the pressure gradient between low pressure east of Nova
Scotia and high pressure to the west of the waters.  Both the wind
and seas are expected to be below small craft advisory levels
Wednesday through Saturday as high pressure slowly builds toward the
waters from the west.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for MEZ016-017-029-030-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Tuesday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/Sinko
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/Sinko/CB
Marine...Bloomer/Sinko/CB