841 FXUS61 KCAR 100124 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 924 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... The cold front will cross the waters late Tuesday into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. Another cold front will cross the waters Thursday followed by high pressure returning Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 925 pm update... Quick update to increase cloud cover and bump mins up by a degree or two as a result. No other chgs needed. Prev discussion blo... The cold front will approach the state tonight and cross the region on Tuesday. For tonight, the moisture ahead of the front will increase cloud cover throughout the night. Decided to cap temps in the low 50s with the clouds moving in and the inversion setting up. S winds will start to decrease with calmer wind Downeast. After midnight, high res QPF models show rain showers moving in from the S into Tuesday morning. Upper air model soundings suggest these showers could be light rain to drizzle before the front moves in. For Tuesday, early morning showers will continue throughout the day ahead of the cold front. The question for the day will be if the convective showers will produce any thunderstorms and/or produce heavy rainfall. Upper air model soundings show several factors, a well mixed boundary layer, elevated instability, high PWATS, and a strong inversion. The strong inversion is expected to stabilize the atmosphere while the elevated CAPE will provide instability. Simulated reflectivity and soundings show a fast moving system with pulse convection throughout the afternoon. Any clearing will help increase temps and instability, thus producing thunderstorms. If the skies remain cloudy, then expected convective showers with possible heavy rain. Temps will be below normal in the mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday Night... Shortwave trough axis passes through from west to east during the night, with drier air working in behind the trough axis. What this means is during the evening, most of the area (especially eastern portions) will still be in a favorable location to get showers and perhaps an isolated storm. This rain tapers off from west to east through the evening and overnight. There is a bit of uncertainty in exact ending time of the rain, though. Wednesday... Overall, a drier airmass in place Wednesday with westerly flow over the area. We will be in between shortwave troughs in the fast westerly flow, so shower chances look minimal, with 20-30 percent mainly late afternoon in the north. Seasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Breezy from the west. Wednesday Night... Next shortwave trough moves through from west to east Wednesday night, with likely a surface cold front moving through late in the night. Timing of the system during the night obviously isn`t the best for shower/thunderstorm activity, but still can`t rule out some especially in the north, and went with 30-65 percent rain chances in the north, with a slight chance of thunder. Minimal rain chances Downeast. With good mixing and an approaching cold front, lows will be mild in the upper 50s to low 60s. Thursday... Cold front moves through around dawn, with a slightly cooler and drier airmass during the day Thursday. Could still be enough instability though in the north for a some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the afternoon (up to a 50 percent chance). Breezy from the west, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s north and upper 70s Downeast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Reinforcing shot of cool, dry air moves in Thursday night, leaving way for a comfortably cool Friday, with highs in the low to mid 60s north and around 70 Downeast. Decent NW breeze Friday, and dry. Continued dry Friday night with high pressure moving in, and could get rather cool. Not expecting frost, but lows in the 40s areawide appear likely, with perhaps some upper 30s in coolest locations in the N/NW. For the weekend, forecast confidence decreases significantly regarding amplitude and timing of systems in the W/NW flow aloft. Right now, sticking close to the NBM which has 15-30 percent rain chances Saturday night to Monday, highest chances over southern portions of the area. With these precip chances, odds favor generally dry weather, but there are a notable minority of model solutions that have wet weather. Temperatures look fairly close to average Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: Downeast terminals will see VFR condition until 07z when low MVFR cigs move in before diminishing to IFR restrictions after 09z. Cannot rule out IFR vsbys in fog and possibly drizzle with LIFR cigs around daybreak. Expect IFR conditions to continue over BGR and BHB remainder of the day Tuesday. Northern terminals likely to see MVFR restrictions mid-late morning. IFR cigs expected to move in during the afternoon with MVFR vsbys in fog and/or showers thru end of TAF valid time. SHORT TERM: Tue Night...MVFR/IFR early, generally increasing to VFR from W to E late in the night. Possible showers/storms in the evening. Light SW wind becoming W. Wednesday...VFR. W wind 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts. Wednesday Night...VFR, with possible intermittent MVFR in the north with a chance of showers and storms. SW wind 5-10 kts. Thursday through Saturday...Generally VFR. W/NW wind 5-15 kts with gusts to around 25 kts Thu/Fri afternoon. Light/variable winds Fri night/Sat. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight and Tuesday. SHORT TERM: Small craft winds/seas likely Wed night/Thu, with W/SW winds and seas up to around 6 ft. Otherwise, less than small craft Tue night to Sat. Minimal fog over the waters. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster/LaFlash Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Buster/LaFlash/Foisy Marine...Buster/LaFlash/Foisy